Nevada state lawmakers and guests gather for Gov. Joe Lombardo’s State of the State in 2023. (Photo: Richard Bednarski for Nevada Current)
Barring a “red wave” that nobody is predicting, Republicans will once again be in the minority of both houses of the Nevada Legislature when it convenes in a little more than three months.
The question is whether the Democratic majorities will be merely large enough to thwart Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo’s agenda — as happened during the 2023 legislative session — or large enough to effectively circumvent Lombardo and enact a Democratic agenda of their own.
All 42 Assembly seats and half of the 21 Senate seats are up for re-election this year.
Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo has made blocking a Democratic supermajority a priority, because, if Democrats are able to secure two-thirds of seats in both the Assembly and the Senate, they could override any of his gubernatorial vetoes, of which there have been dozens.
Lombardo endorsed a slate of candidates early in the election cycle, and political action committees aligned with him have funneled hundreds of thousands of dollars into the most competitive races. “Protect the veto” has been a rallying cry among many of those candidates.
On their end, Democrats have largely downplayed the topic of supermajorities, with candidates saying they are focused on “kitchen table issues” and stressing their commitment to working in a bipartisan manner.
Democrats currently have the bare minimum for a supermajority in the Assembly — 28 of 42 seats. In the Senate, they are one seat shy.
Nevada State Assembly
In the Assembly, Republicans could break the supermajority by successfully defending their existing 14 seats and flipping one Democratic seat.
Their best opportunities for flipping a district red could be two open seats in Southern Nevada: Assembly District 29, where Democrat Joe Dalia and Republican Annette Dawson Owens are facing off, and Assembly District 35, which features Republican Rebecca Edgeworth and Democrat Sharifa Wahab.
Several Democratic incumbents are also seen as vulnerable, offering other paths for the Republicans to increase their numbers in the chamber:
Democratic Assemblywoman Elaine Marzola in District 21 is facing a challenge from Republican April Arndt.
Democratic Assemblywoman Selena La Rue Hatch in District 25 is facing a challenge from Republican Diana Sande.
Democratic Assemblywoman Shea Backus in District 37 is facing a challenge from Republican David Brog.
Democratic Assemblywoman Sandra Jauregui in District 41 is facing a challenge from Republican Rafael Arroyo.
On their end, Democrats appear to have little wiggle room increasing the existing margin of their supermajority. One clear opportunity is in Assembly District 4, an open seat currently represented by Republican Richard McArthur, who opted to run for state Senate but was defeated in the primary. Facing off in that Southern Nevada district are Republican Lisa Cole and Democrat Ryan Hampton.
Democrats also have their eyes on ousting Republican Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama in Assembly District 2. Democrat Ron Nelsen is challenging the incumbent in that race.
Nevada State Senate
Nevada state senators serve four-year, staggered terms. That means only 10 of the 21 seats are on the ballot this year.
Democrats could secure a supermajority in the chamber by maintaining the six seats they currently control and flipping one of the four seats held by Republicans.
The districts seen as having the most potential for a red-to-blue flip are Senate District 15 in Northern Nevada and Senate District 5 in Southern Nevada. Both districts have seen their boundary lines shifted significantly since it was last on the ballot.
SD15 is currently represented by Republican state Sen. Heidi Seevers O’Gara (formerly Seevers Gansert), who opted not to run for re-election. Vying to replace her are Democratic Assemblywoman Angie Taylor and Republican Mike Ginsberg.
SD5 features an incumbent: Republican state Sen. Carrie Buck is being challenged by Democrat Jennifer Atlas.
Republicans also have a competitive candidate in Senate District 11 where Democratic state Sen. Dallas Harris is being challenged by Republican Lori Rogich. The district, which covers part of the southwest part of the Las Vegas Valley, leans Democratic but is not insurmountable, especially for a well funded and politically connected candidate like Rogich.
Potentially complicating matters for Harris is that she is among a group of Democrats who lost the support of the Culinary Union.
Culinary — often described as politically powerful and a key organizer for Democrats — took issue with state lawmakers who voted for legislation that ended pandemic-era public health requirements imposed on the gaming industry. Senate Bill 441 from the 2023 Legislative Session is sometimes referred to as the “room cleaning bill” because among its provisions was a requirement for daily room cleaning at resorts.
Prior to the June primary, Culinary announced they would unendorse 18 Democratic lawmakers who they had endorsed in previous election cycles because of their vote on the room cleaning bill. Included in that group was Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro, Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager, and state Sen. Rochelle Nguyen, who the union attempted to oust during the district’s primary. (Nguyen won anyway, defeating Geo Hughes, a nurse and daughter of Culinary’s former secretary-treasurer Geoconda Argüello-Kline.)
All 18 candidates advanced beyond their primaries anyway. Now, for the general, those candidates again are not being endorsed by Culinary. However, only in SD11 did Culinary endorse a competitor.
The Culinary has yet to unveil its legislative priorities for the 2025 session.