Democratic leaders in the Statehouse appear open to changing or abandoning some of the climate and environmental policies they’ve championed in recent years following their party’s major losses in the recent election.
In November, Democrats lost more seats in the Vermont Legislature than in any other state in the country, and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have seen the shift as a mandate from voters to address the state’s affordability challenges.
A new urgency related to the cost of living in Vermont has stemmed from an increase in property taxes related to education spending, but the frustration has seeped into discussions about climate policies, too.
“I think voters asked us to focus on their wellbeing over the allure of being some kind of national leader in an abstract sense,” said Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale, D-Chittenden Southeast, the incoming Senate majority leader.
Because Republicans broke last session’s supermajority of Democrats and Progressives, and because Gov. Phil Scott has historically vetoed climate laws that involve new fees or expenses for Vermont residents, Democrats would need to collaborate with Republicans on any climate policies they want to introduce in the coming session.
Sen. Anne Watson, D/P-Washington, who as former vice-chair is in line to lead the Senate Natural Resources and Energy Committee, said the types of climate policies the committee takes up are “all going to depend on what we can agree on.” (The former chair Sen. Chris Bray, D-Addison, a strong advocate for the current policies, lost his bid for re-election.)
“Staying focused on affordability, I think, is key,” she said. “If we can figure out a policy that helps make energy more affordable for Vermonters and oh, by the way, it’ll also help the climate — amazing.”
Meanwhile, environmental organizations, advocates and many lawmakers have long argued that it would actually be more affordable for Vermonters to transition to energy sources that pollute less, as long as that transition is handled carefully.
“The status quo is not working for people,” said Lauren Hierl, executive director of the Vermont Natural Resources Council. “Right now, we look at the reports about how much people are spending to heat their homes and get around, and that is part of what is stressing people’s home finances.”
Rep. Laura Sibilia, I-Dover, who is challenging House Speaker Jill Krowinski, D-Burlington, for the chamber’s speakership, would need broad Republican support in order to claim the role. She cast passing climate policies as a smart economic move for Vermont.
“Vermont is not an island,” she said in an interview. “Our economy is impacted by the changes that other states and countries are making as a result of the energy transition.”
In the global context, there is “no such thing, really, as standing still,” she said. “You’re keeping a pace or you’re falling behind.”
Prospects of the clean heat standard
Many Democrats acknowledge they aren’t likely to move forward with a clean heat standard, the controversial policy designed to reduce emissions that come from heating and cooling buildings in Vermont.
In 2023, lawmakers passed a measure that required the state’s Public Utility Commission to study the policy, determining how much it would likely cost Vermonters and how, exactly, it would work. This session, lawmakers plan to review the policy, but widespread opposition from Republicans would make it near impossible to pass.
“I think we should wait and see what the final report says,” Watson said. “At this moment, all options are on the table, and I’m holding them, all with an open hand, and want to pursue the best thing we can for Vermonters. Maybe it is a clean heat standard. Maybe it’s a different policy mechanism.”
Designed to incentivize heating systems that pollute less, the clean heat standard would work by requiring fuel dealers that import heating-related fossil fuels into Vermont to offset the emissions associated with their products. They could do so by delivering cleaner-burning products like biofuels, by helping to weatherize homes or install heat pumps, or by paying a fee. The money raised from those fees would help switch Vermonters — especially those with lower incomes — to less-polluting heating systems.
Ram-Hinsdale pointed to the election results, calling them a “pretty strong message from Vermonters that they want to make sure that we increase their quality of life and lower their cost of living.” The clean heat standard may have been too complex, she said. Instead, something similar to the energy efficiency charge, which Vermonters pay on their electric bills, could be a better solution.
“If all of us were having a hard time explaining what we were trying to do in election season, then it really was unfair to expect our constituents to simply accept that and trust us,” she said of the clean heat standard’s complexity.
Sibilia, historically one of the policy’s most ardent supporters, said she understands the concerns of the policy’s critics after reviewing the most recent information from the Public Utility Commission.
“I feel pretty sure that we’re not going to find consensus this year on a clean heat standard,” she said. “But legislation really relies on nuance, and I think we may need to look at other opportunities for ensuring stability in heating prices for Vermonters going forward.”
Changing Vermont’s landmark climate law
If lawmakers abandon the clean heat standard, it will become harder for the state to comply with the 2020 Global Warming Solutions Act, Vermont’s foundational climate law.
Lawmakers designed the law to align with the international Paris Agreement. In 2017, Scott agreed to join the Climate Alliance, a group of states that planned to move ahead with the agreement’s goals after then-president Donald Trump pulled the United States out, an action the president-elect has said he plans to take again during his coming term.
The law requires Vermont to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in set amounts by 2025, 2030 and 2050, and includes a provision that opens the state up to lawsuits if officials fail to develop strategies to meet the deadlines.
Scott has said his administration plans to propose changes to the law, which he vetoed, in the coming session. And House and Senate Republicans recently announced they intend to introduce a bill with their own set of changes.
In a mid-December press release, Republican party leaders said they’ll propose amendments that “establish carbon reduction goals and timelines that reflect the availability and affordability of proven carbon reduction technologies, an appreciation of Vermont’s winter climate and heating needs, and will not cause undue damage to Vermont’s economy or families.”
Republican leadership said they also plan to repeal the provision of the law that allows entities to sue the state for failing to meet its deadlines.
Some of the state’s large environmental groups are prepared to push back hard against changes to the climate law.
“The Global Warming Solutions Act is the law and should continue to be the law,” said Ben Edgerly Walsh, a lobbyist with Vermont Public Interest Research Group. “And we’re going to make our case on that to legislators across the political spectrum.”
Democrats and Progressives still hold a majority in the Statehouse, so Republicans’ proposed changes to the climate law may not move forward. But if the law remains in place and unchanged, the state faces a growing risk of a lawsuit.
Experts disagree about whether the state will meet its 2025 deadline, by which time the state needs to reach 26% below 2005 emission levels. But everyone agrees that Vermont is not on track to meet the 2030 deadline, by which time it must reduce emissions to 40% below 1990 emission levels.
In 1990, Vermont emitted 8.56 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, the metric used to measure climate pollution. In 2021, the most recent year of data, Vermont emitted 8.28 million metric tons of pollution. By 2030, the state needs to get that number down to 5.14 million metric tons to meet the goal.
Environmentalists and administrative leaders agree that Vermont has not yet passed climate policies in any sector that put the state on track to meet the 2030 deadline. As it nears, any policy would need to be aggressive, swiftly reducing emissions by roughly 3 million metric tons in a span of several years. State officials, including Natural Resources Secretary Julie Moore, have argued that no policy can be both effective in reaching that goal and be affordable for Vermonters.
Sibilia said the law has been important to her because it connects Vermont to “the economic changes that are happening as a result of those goals that more than 100 other countries and states have signed on to.” In turn, Vermont’s commitment means “that we are not leaving our most rural and poor folks behind” as energy technology swiftly advances, she said.
Still, she said it’s fair to question whether the Global Warming Solutions Act includes “the right goals.”
“What is the right place that keeps us moving forward, is centered in affordability, and that we can get some consensus on?” she said.
Some lawmakers and advocates who want to stay the course say the stress related to the forthcoming deadline could have been more easily avoided if Vermont’s state officials and lawmakers acted sooner.
“You actually have to take action at a certain point,” VPIRG’s Walsh said. “The law has been on the books for four years now, and there were studies and working groups before that, for years under the Scott administration and for a couple decades now in this state.”
Hierl, with the Vermont Natural Resources Council, echoed Walsh’s sentiment.
“We think we need to just double down on finding solutions that can work for Vermonters, instead of trying to backpedal and lose momentum,” she said.
Watson said she’s willing to consider changes to the Global Warming Solutions Act, but only if those changes are accompanied by a solid proposal to reduce emissions.
“I am not as interested in moving the deadline without a plan to go with it,” she said.
Read the story on VTDigger here: With few paths for climate action, Vermont Democrats consider changes to state’s landmark climate law.