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Donald Trump reclaimed Pennsylvania and the presidency Tuesday when the urban coalition that gave Joe Biden his 2020 victory in the state failed to show up for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump won the state by 171,000 votes, primarily by eroding Democratic turnout in the major metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
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Harris earned 89,000 fewer votes in these major metropolitan areas than Biden did in 2020. Trump, meanwhile, earned about 30,000 more votes this year than he did in 2020 in those same counties in and around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. (The Daily Yonder defines major metropolitan areas as ones with 1 million or more residents.)
The difference was determinative in a state that both candidates needed to win the Electoral College vote.
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On a percentage basis, Trump won in all categories of counties except in major metropolitan cities and suburbs. He lost the core counties of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (major metro) by 39 points, but that was 2 percentage points better than he did in 2020. In the suburbs of these major cities, he lost by less than a point, which was 2 points better than he did in 2020.
Trump swept the board in all other types of counties, from small rural areas to medium sized cities. And he improved on his 2020 performance in doing so. He did about 1.5 points better in medium-sized metro areas; 0.9 points better in small metros; and 0.8 points better in rural (nonmetro) counties.
Rural counties saw the least shift to Trump from 2020 to 2024, but that’s partly because his margin was already so high. Trump won 73.4% of the rural Pennsylvania vote this year, compared to 72.5% in 2020.
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Medium-Sized Metropolitan Areas
In medium-sized metro areas , Trump won 38,000 more votes than he did in 2020, while Harris got 19,000 fewer votes than Biden did in 2020.
Trump won both the core counties of these metros and their suburbs by about 11 points, about 1.5 points better than he performed in 2020.
Medium-sized metros have populations of 250,000 to under 1 million. These are the cities and surrounding counties of places like Allenton, Erie, Harrisburg, Lancaster, Reading, Scranton, and York.
Small Metros
Turnout was lower for both candidates in Pennsylvania’s small metropolitan areas, which have populations under 250,000. There are nine small metropolitan areas in the state, ranging from East Stroudsburg (Monroe County) in the east to Johnston (Cambria County) in the west.
In small metros, both Trump and Harris won from 25,000 to 30,000 fewer votes compared to the 2020 election.
Trump got nearly two-thirds of the votes in these counties, a slight improvement from 2020.
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Rural Counties
Trump improved his percentage of the rural vote in Pennsylvania by less than a percentage point compared to 2020. Trump picked up about 17,000 additional votes compared to 2020, while Harris lost about 2,100 compared to Biden’s performance in 2020. The net change amounted to about 15,000 additional votes for Trump among rural voters.
Trump won rural counties by over 45 points.
Methodology. The Daily Yonder uses the 2013 Office of Management and Budget Metropolitan Statistical Areas to determine county categories.
This article first appeared on The Daily Yonder and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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