Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) (Photo: Screen grab from Senate.gov)
As expected, incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis was the early fundraising leader in the latest campaign finance reports filed by candidates in North Carolina’s 2026 Senate election.
Friday marked the Federal Election Commission’s most recent quarterly filing deadline for the period between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31, 2024.
Tillis, the state’s senior senator, raised $902,367.79. The Republican brought in more than he spent, which was $219,654.61. He has about $2.2 million left in his war chest.
Former Congressman Wiley Nickel, who chose not to run for reelection in 2024 in a House district gerrymandered to guarantee a GOP victory, has indicated he’s exploring a Senate bid, but has yet to formally announce his candidacy or commence fundraising in earnest. He reported having raised just $2,732.83 in the final quarter of 2024. The Democrat spent $24,189 during the reporting period and has $688,991.16 left on hand.
The political world expects North Carolina to have one of the most contentious Senate contests in 2026. Tillis is the only Republican senator up for reelection in a 2024 swing state.
It’s a must-win for Democrats, who would need to retain all their incumbents and win four additional seats to become the majority party.
U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York is leading the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. She has said she’s “prepared to intervene,” as well as signaled willingness to recruit former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina. Cooper has not said whether he will run but has hinted that he is considering the possibility.
The party also must defend an open seat in Michigan. Incumbent U.S. Sen. Gary Peters announced last week that he’s declining to seek reelection, after serving as DSCC chair in the 2024 cycle. Peters was first elected to the Senate in 2014.
On the Republican side, U.S. Sen. Ted Budd is a vice chair for the National Republican Senatorial Committee under chair Tim Scott from neighboring South Carolina. Budd, the junior senator from North Carolina, has served alongside Tillis since 2023.
Tillis has the incumbent’s advantage when it comes to fundraising at the moment, about 21 months out from the general election.
But as a more moderate member of his party, he could face a primary challenge from a Trump-endorsed candidate. Andy Nilsson, a longtime North Carolina Republican, has made moves to launch a Senate bid against Tillis.
A retired businessman and former candidate for lieutenant governor, Nilsson filed paperwork with the FEC last month. His campaign website describes himself as a “conservative leader” and “unapologetically MAGA.”
Nilsson’s campaign kickoff comes quite early in the election cycle, more than a year before the primary takes place. During the state’s last senatorial contest, Budd did not announce his candidacy for the 2022 election until April of 2021.
Former GOP Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson said on Friday that he wouldn’t run for the seat.
He mounted a controversial gubernatorial campaign in 2024 against then-Attorney General Josh Stein and lost by 13.8 percentage points — more than 800,000 votes. It was one of the most high-profile races in the country for a state’s top executive.
Other anticipated highly competitive 2026 races will be Georgia, a battleground state with freshman Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, and Maine, where U.S. Sen. Susan Collins is seeking her sixth term and is the only GOP senator representing a state Vice President Kamala Harris won in November.