THREE OF THE STATE’S five ballot questions, including the one dealing with the MCAS graduation requirement, are in a “precarious” position right now, according to new poll data.
The poll, conducted for CommonWealth Beacon and WBUR by the MassINC Polling Group, found that Question 2, which would eliminate the 10th grade MCAS as a high school graduation requirement, is supported by 51 percent of likely voters and opposed by 34 percent, with 15 percent undecided. (toplines/crosstabs)
While a 17-point margin appears large, Rich Parr, the polling group’s research director, said it is far from rock solid given that voters tend to break toward the “no” side as Election Day nears.
Two other ballot questions – Question 4, which authorizes limited legalization of psychedelic drugs, and Question 5, raising the minimum wage for tipped workers and allowing pooled tips between front- and back-of-house staff – are in greater trouble.
The tipped worker minimum wage question is 43 percent yes to 40 percent no. Legalizing certain natural psychedelics for those over 21 years old is the only question where no is ahead, though only narrowly with 44 percent opposed and 42 percent in favor.
“The poll shows these three ballot questions in a precarious position,” said Parr. “At this stage of the campaign, the ‘yes’ side would hope to have a solid majority of support, because late deciders often break towards the ‘no.’”
The poll surveyed 800 likely voters in Massachusetts from September 12 to 18. It has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
Most of the questions, which are already drawing millions of dollars for and against, are fighting to stop their support from leaking away as November approaches. But fall isn’t just the season of famous New England foliage. It’s back-to-school time, when education-related ballot efforts can get a boost or a kick in the teeth from involved educators.
Question 2 is “the one possible exception” to the common slide from yes to no, Parr said. “Parents may hear messages in favor of that question from and around their children’s schools, and that could help to grow the ‘yes’ number between now and November.”
A very different reality is at play for Question 1, which would allow the state auditor to audit the Legislature and looks likely to pass based on polling throughout the year. A UMass Amherst poll in May found that 64 percent of respondents supported the legislative audit question with just 5 percent opposed. Those numbers have climbed to 70 percent in favor and 8 percent opposed in the new MassINC Polling Group survey.
Question 3 on the November ballot, which would create a new system for ride-share drivers to form a union and collectively bargain, was not polled due to poll length limitations.
Some interesting divisions and trends showed up in the MCAS, psychedelics, and tipped wage questions.
Each showed roughly 15 percent of respondents answering that they did not know how they would vote on the question.
Democrats were more supportive than Republicans of all three measures, with those who back Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race in favor of legalizing psychedelics and changing the tipped wage system, while Donald Trump backers oppose those measures. The largest partisan gap of all polled initiatives is the tipped minimum wage question, supported by 59 percent of Democrats and just 26 percent of Republicans.
The One Fair Wage group argues that the change to tipped worker pay, which would gradually rise to meet the normal minimum wage, is a matter of equity resisted by stingy restaurateurs.
“Big restaurant corporations are not paying their fair share and are forcing consumers to cover their employees’ wages through tips,” the group wrote in the state ballot guide. “Tips should be a reward for good service, not a subsidy for low wages paid by large corporations.”
According to the new poll, respondents who make less than $100,000 a year support the measure 52 percent to 35 percent, while those earning over $100,000 a year oppose it 43 to 41 percent.
Restaurant owner Douglas Bacon, who sits on the Massachusetts Restaurant Association board, argues the change “would reduce overall wages for servers, increase costs for restaurants, and skyrocket the cost of eating out. It will be disastrous with many neighborhood restaurants being forced to close.”
There is some element of agreement on the MCAS front, however. Respondents from both political parties are leaning toward yes, by a margin of 46 to 43 percent for Republicans and 56 to 27 percent for Democrats.
Almost all demographics currently lean toward removing the MCAS requirements, with notably large margins in favor from the age groups likely to have children in K-12 schools – 30- to 44-year-olds in particular support the measure 63 to 25 percent. Men over 45 years old and Republican women are narrowly opposed.
Regionally, those polled in Essex County were least enamored of the three potential ballot questions, leaning no on each. Respondents in Western Massachusetts – the stronghold of the Massachusetts Teachers Association pushing the MCAS question – were most enthusiastically in favor of the initiative. They support it 62 to 28 percent.
It will be a drag-out fight until the ballot booth on MCAS, which the massive teachers union calls a “one-size-fits all” metric that should be replaced with a set of as-of-yet undefined “comprehensive measures [that] will allow teachers to stop teaching to a test and unburden students from a make-or-break standardized test.” Opponents argue that the metric protects the value of a Massachusetts diploma, saying the initiative is “a radical and untested proposal and should be rejected.”
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