In summary
Closely contested congressional races in California could tip the balance on whether Democrats can retake control of the U.S. House. This year, it’s Republicans on defense.
In 2020, California Democrats lost four of the seven competitive congressional seats they had just gained amid a “blue wave” two years earlier. In 2022, Republicans gained one more seat in California and took control of the U.S. House.
This election, it is Republicans who must play defense.
From the Central Valley to southern California, Democrats are fighting to flip five GOP-held seats in the state’s most competitive contests. They are also aiming to keep a competitive seat now held by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who has narrowly won the district for three terms and is not seeking re-election this year.
The outcome of these contests will help determine control of the U.S. House, where Republicans currently hold an eight-seat majority. California is home to more competitive House races than any other state, according to ratings by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The state is solidly Democratic, but has 10 of the 69 most competitive congressional races, including five toss-up contests. Of those five districts — all represented by Republicans — four went for President Joe Biden in 2020.
One of the first major acts of the new Congress that will be sworn into office on Jan. 3 is to certify the electoral votes for president three days later. Only four of the 12 Republicans now representing California in Congress have publicly pledged to certify the election, and they’re all seeking re-election.
“More than one out of 10 members of the House is from California. More than one in 10 Americans is a Californian,” said Casey Dominguez, a professor of political science and international relations at the University of San Diego. “So it’s not really that surprising that California plays an important role in deciding which party controls the House.”
Big money flowing into races
It’s why outside groups — political organizations independent of candidates themselves — have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into California’s tightest House races. By mid-October, outside groups had spent twice the amount candidates themselves spent in the five toss-up races, according to data from OpenSecrets, a Washington, D.C.-based campaign finance watchdog group. The 45th District in Orange and Los Angeles counties, for example, is the most expensive House race this election cycle, with almost $45 million spent as of Oct. 30, data shows.
Democrats in those close contests have stepped up their fundraising efforts in the last quarter, outraising their GOP opponents between July and September, federal campaign records show.
Vice President Kamala Harris — who launched her presidential bid in July after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race — has invigorated some donors, raising more than $1 billion since. The campaign has transferred more than $24 million to help down-ballot races, including $10 million to the party committee funding swing U.S. House races.
But money is only one piece of the puzzle, as the outcome of this election largely depends on voter turnout, candidate quality and name recognition, experts say.
In 2018, a backlash against former President Donald Trump motivated Democratic voters, while in 2022, the fall of Roe v. Wade — a landmark case that guaranteed federal protections for abortion for decades — energized liberal voters nationwide, Dominguez said. This year, it comes down to those who want to send Trump back to office and those who want to keep him out of the White House, she said.
“The question is: Is there that grassroots energy to flip the House back to the Democrats?” Dominguez said.
Which issues could sway voters?
Some key issues could impact voter turnout in certain races. Republicans in southern California, especially in San Diego County, have played up immigration and the border crisis — the most-talked-about issue among Republicans nationwide, according to an analysis of more than 300 TV ads by NBC.
Democrats, on the other hand, have leaned into abortion, arguing a Democratic Congress would help write abortion rights into federal law.
The cost of housing — a key problem Harris has highlighted in her presidential campaign — is also emerging as an important issue in some of California’s swing districts, where voters have felt the sharpest increases in mortgage payments and rent statewide.
Another factor that may further complicate the election outcome: Some toss-up districts may have become more conservative since two years ago: Voters in those districts are switching parties, which is benefitting Republicans, according to a September study released by the Public Policy Institute of California.
In some districts, voters of color are key. Latinos — a prominent voting bloc with historically low turnouts — make up the majority of the population in two competitive Central Valley districts, where candidates and parties have spent tens of millions to boost Latino voter turnout. And in two Orange County seats, campaigns are vying to snatch up Vietnamese, Korean and Chinese voters, who represent roughly 30% of the area’s population.
Which are the key races?
13th District: In this Latino-majority Central Valley district, Democrat Adam Gray is again seeking to unseat GOP Rep. John Duarte after he failed by a razor-thin margin in 2022. While the district has more registered Democrats than Republicans, it also has a sizable — and growing — no-party-preference population. Both candidates have labeled themselves “moderates” and gave similar answers on several issues during their last debate on Halloween, but they remained mum on abortion policies and declined to specify on what a livable wage is in California.
22nd District: In another toss-up race in the Central Valley, it’s another rematch: Democratic state Assemblymember Rudy Salas is challenging GOP Rep. David Valadao after losing by less than 4,000 votes in 2022. Both have touted their moderate record, agricultural roots and efforts to court Latino voters in this agriculture-heavy district. Salas would be the first Latino representative.
27th District: In a race for this northern Los Angeles County seat, GOP Rep. Mike Garcia aims to fend off a challenge from Democrat George Whitesides, former chief of staff of NASA under President Barack Obama. Both have accused each other of being “extreme:” Whitesides has associated Garcia with former President Donald Trump and attacked him for co-sponsoring bills to restrict abortion access, while Garcia slammed Whitesides for lacking roots in the district and too liberal for the region.
41st District: Democratic attorney Will Rollins faces longtime GOP Rep. Ken Calvert again in this Inland Empire district. Rollins almost flipped the seat in 2022 after redistricting made the district more competitive by including Palm Springs, a progressive city known for its large LGBTQ population. The two have clashed over LGBTQ rights, with Rollins, who is gay, bashing Calvert for past votes against same-sex marriages. Calvert in turn slammed Rollins as being soft on crime and criticized him for remaining silent on Proposition 36, which would toughen penalties for some petty crimes.
45th District: It’s the most expensive House race in the nation. This contest between Democrat Derek Tran and GOP Rep. Michelle Steel could come down to voter turnout among Vietnamese American voters in the district, which is home to Little Saigon — the largest Vietnamese enclave outside Vietnam itself. Tran, a son of Vietnamese refugees, would be the first Vietnamese American to represent the district, but Steel, a Korean American, has strength in name recognition and has successfully tapped into the anti-Communist views shared by many residents.
47th District: In a heated contest to fill the vacancy to be left by Porter, a progressive firebrand, Democratic state Sen. Dave Min is taking on Republican Scott Baugh, who lost to Porter by a slim margin in 2022. Crime has been a focus in this Orange County-based district, with Baugh portraying Min’s legislative record as soft on crime and Min attacking Baugh for a past election law violation.
16th District: Besides the swing districts, another high-profile race pits former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo against Assemblymember Evan Low in a Democrat-vs-Democrat race for this deep-blue Silicon Valley seat. The district already saw an extremely close — and messy — March primary, where Low and another candidate were tied for second place until an expensive recount funded by supporters of Liccardo, the top vote getter, showed Low got five more votes. Both candidates have accused each other of dirty plays and both have had complaints filed against them with the Federal Elections Commission.
