John McLean, a Democratic candidate for Arizona Senate in District 17, canvasses a neighborhood on Oct. 12, 2024. Photo by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy | Arizona Mirror
The residents of the expansive Legislative District 17 in Southern Arizona have a common refrain when talking about people from the Greater Phoenix area.
“Oh, you’re from the Great State of Maricopa?” a Democratic canvasser jokes with the Arizona Mirror, which was invited to follow two candidates hoping to flip the district and Arizona Capitol blue.
District 17 spans a portion of Pima and Pinal counties, running from Marana in the west and wrapping around the northern part of Tucson — capturing Oro Valley and Saddlebrooke along the way — before swinging south to take in eastern Tucson and Tanque Verde. It has been seen as a safe haven for the Republican Party and the area has elected some of the most far-right lawmakers in the state.
But the Republican Party in the area has also seen its share of in-fighting.
GET THE MORNING HEADLINES.
Former Republican state Sen. Vince Leach beat incumbent Sen. Justine Wadsack in the primary election with Leach often citing her “extreme” views in ads and mailers ahead of the primary earlier this year. Leach winning was seen as a boon to the GOP’s chances of holding onto its one-seat majority in the state Senate: While he may be just as conservative as Wadsack, he’s far less controversial than Wadsack, who trafficked in QAnon and other conspiracy theories, cozied up to antisemites and attacked police after she was charged with criminal speeding.
While registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats in the district, it’s the unaffiliated voters that make up a sizable portion of voters in the region that both parties are trying to tap into. For Democrats, victory is only possible if they capture the lion’s share of independent voters — and convince some right-of-center Republicans to cross party lines.
“This is a really, really critical time,” Kevin Volk, the Democrat who is running for one of the district’s two House seats, said to supporters ahead of a day of canvassing. Volk added that they’re expecting the margin of victory in the race to be “small” for either side. “This is the most important district to flip in Arizona.”
The stakes couldn’t be much higher. Democrats are making their largest ever push for control of the Arizona Legislature, which Republicans have controlled with a nearly iron grip since the mid-1960s. But the last two elections have left the GOP with mere one-seat majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and Democrats see the presidential election this year as their best opportunity to flip both of those chambers.
While Volk is a former educator who has worked with Democrats like Gabby Giffords and Tim Kaine, his counterpart running for Senate is a bit different.
“The constant lies in the election was a step too far,” John McLean, a former Republican who is now running as a Democrat against Leach, told the Mirror. Like many former Republicans, McLean said his “trigger event” for leaving the party had to do with election denialism spread by GOP leaders.
That, and a comment made by Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake.
Late in her 2022 gubernatorial campaign, Lake asked a crowd of supporters if there were any “McCain Republicans” in attendance before telling them to “get the hell out,” because she didn’t want any supporters of former U.S. Sen. John McCain in the Republican Party.
“I took that as my sign to get out,” McLean said.
Now, he is working with the Democrats with the aim of flipping the legislature in which Republicans hold a one vote majority and they’re trying to do that by doing “boots on the ground” work in LD17.
L to R: Rep. Rachel Jones, Rep. Cory McGarr, Kevin Volk. Photos via Gage Skidmore (Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0), Kevin Volk (Facebook)
Volk has knocked on more than 5,000 doors across the expansive district and has had a variety of conversations with voters as he hopes to knock off either of the incumbent Republicans, Rachel Jones and Cory McGarr.
“This is a prototypical ticket-splitting district,” Volk said, adding that he believes voters are getting tired of hyper-partisan politics. “I think you’ve seen a real extreme policy and rigid ideology from McGarr and Jones.”
Neither Republican responded to requests for an interview. Leach initially responded and said he would speak to the Mirror, but did not respond to multiple subsequent messages to schedule an interview.
“They’re really tired of the extremes,” Volk said of voters he has spoken to. “They are ready to see the temperature go down.”
That temperature has been amplified in part by the district’s current representatives. Jones, who is married to election fraud conspiracy theorist Seth Keshel, is part of the far-right Arizona Freedom Caucus and has sponsored legislation that would declare Donald Trump the winner this year, even if voters choose Kamala Harris.
And McGarr has sponsored legislation that would have removed President Joe Biden from the Arizona ballot, while Leach has made a racially charged joke that amplified racist lies demonizing Haitian immigrants.
While voters want to see the temperature of rhetoric go down, the literal temperature in Marana was high during the mid-October heat wave as both Volk and McLean made their rounds in areas with independent voters they’re hoping will vote for them.
The middle-class neighborhoods consisting of mainly white families had few people who opened their doors to the men as they walked, pamphlets in hand as they wore wide-brimmed hats to protect them from the late morning sun.
“We’ve never had a candidate come to the door before,” one man told McLean as he accepted literature from the legislative hopeful.
The next door went a bit differently.
“We are Republicans here,” the man said to McLean after hearing his party affiliation. The man politely but sternly told McLean he only voted for Republicans.
They’re really tired of the extremes. They are ready to see the temperature go down.
– Kevin Volk, Democratic legislative candidate
A few blocks away, Volk was having conversations with independent voters.
“Not gonna happen, man,” an independent voter said to Volk. “It’s not you, it’s the party.”
After a back and forth in which Volk said he aims to help increase public education funding and he himself has become dismayed by partisan politics, the man began to change his tune.
“I appreciate your candor, and I’m going to give you a look, which is more than I could’ve expected from a Democrat,” the voter said before telling Volk he was upset with how the Biden administration has been handling the southern border.
“To be very clear, I am not running for president,” Volk retorted.
The two men parted ways with the independent voter accepting his literature and saying he’d research Volk.
“There is no average experience,” Volk said about how interactions with voters tend to go when he canvasses neighborhoods. “It is a good reminder of how unique each individual voter is.”
As McLean made his rounds, he noticed that Republican canvassers had already hit the neighborhood, seeing their material stuffed underneath a doormat. McLean said he hasn’t had as many interesting interactions as Volk, who has been knocking doors since the start of January, but he sees it as important to be in the community he wants to represent.
Both men will need to win over the growing slate of independent voters in the state in order to win their respective seats. Independents in the state have become the fastest growing bloc of voters, and many see them as the key to victory.
“In general, I do think people are ready to see a different type of politics,” Volk said, adding he wants to make the position more about public service. “We’ve reached the peak of politics as entertainment.”
YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE.