Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper than last year, but the West has the most expensive grocery bills

Frozen turkeys are displayed for sale in a grocery store on Nov. 14, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Some of the prices on grocery store shelves may have been on an upward trajectory, but overall, Americans are expected to pay less for their Thanksgiving dinners for the second year in a row. 

That’s according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, which has been tracking the cost of Thanksgiving classics for the last 39 years. This year, a meal for 10 will cost about $58.08, the survey found, down about 5% from 2023. However, that’s still 19% higher than pre-pandemic prices. 

But Western states will have a bill 14% more expensive than the rest of the country, the federation wrote. Out West, a classic dinner for 10 people will be around $67.05 this Thanksgiving. The holiday meal is expected to be the cheapest in the South at about $56.81, followed by the Northeast at $57.36 and the Midwest at $58.90.

In the country’s West, food prices in grocery and convenience stores are likely to increase about 2.5% this year compared to 2023 levels, according to Dave Davis, president and CEO of the Utah Food Industry. But, food inflation, not including restaurants, he said, is trending in a good direction. 

“Because of the big inflation that we saw during the pandemic, and even as things were winding down with the pandemic, we’re not back to sort of pre-pandemic levels,” Davis said on Tuesday. “And quite frankly, inflation, as it tends to do, is always going up.”

Restaurants may see about a 4.7% increase by the end of the year. However, for grocery stores, the uptick is at a manageable level, he said. 

“You want to see inflation being where wage growth is outpacing inflation by just a little bit,” Davis said.

What was measured

For one week, volunteer shoppers from all 50 states and Puerto Rico visited their local grocery store in person or virtually to collect the prices of turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crusts, whipping cream and whole milk, the survey said. They looked for the best possible prices, but didn’t use any special promotional coupons or combined purchase deals.

They found that most of those items dropped in price. But, four of them — dinner rolls, fresh cranberries, whipping cream and cubed stuffing — were up. 

Turkey, the centerpiece of the feast, which accounted for 44% of the price calculated by the shoppers this year, experienced a 6% cost decrease, compared to 2023. That’s an anomaly, the economists who wrote the study said, because avian influenza has caused a decline of available turkeys, but demand for them is also down, which lowers prices.

Anecdotally, Davis said he hasn’t heard members at the Utah Food Industry speaking about any significant increases to the cost of turkeys. Being most people’s main dish, Davis estimates Utah numbers are similar to those found in the study.

“Everyone has their own preferences about what Thanksgiving dinner is going to look like. I think that our turkey costs have been pretty good and pretty consistent with those numbers,” Davis said.

Avian influenza did cause a spike on egg prices for about a year in the state, he said. However, they are “back on trend.” And, things are running fairly smoothly for shoppers looking for last-minute items on Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Both Davis and American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall acknowledged that many are hurting because of inflationary pressures. But, they said, there’s something to be grateful for this holiday; food in the country is abundant and one of the most affordable in the world.

“In order to maintain that, we need a strong farm bill which enables Americans to pursue their dreams without worrying about feeding their families,” Duvall said in a news release.  “A new farm bill with a modernized safety net to support those who raise crops and livestock ensures farmers can survive tough economic times and continue to supply food for America’s families, not just for the holidays, but year-round.”

The federal farm bill, which sets agriculture and conservation policy for the next five years, is at a standstill after Congress allowed it to expire Sept. 30 as the election loomed. If a new bill or an extension isn’t passed by the end of the year, the benefits it covers (including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP) will run out.

As for Utah as a whole, Davis said, there aren’t any food shortages and retailers are doing their best to get people through the holiday.

“Sometimes it can be frustrating, especially if you need a last minute item and maybe that item isn’t available. And so be patient and be patient with your fellow shoppers as well,” Davis said. “And keep your eyes open. A lot of times around the Thanksgiving holidays, many retailers are doing sales that may benefit you and your family.”