Supporters of reproductive rights protested outside the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday, March 26, 2024, as justices heard oral arguments over access to mifepristone, one of two pharmaceuticals used in medication abortion. (Photo by Ashley Murray/States Newsroom)
This summer, thousands of voters were taken through an online policymaking simulation produced by the University of Maryland, in which they were briefed on very specific policy questions that get to the heart of what it means practically to ban abortion. At the end of it, majorities of both Democrats and Republicans across the nation — and in six key swing states — said they oppose criminalizing abortion before fetal viability and favor access to birth control.
Steven Kull, the director of University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation, told States Newsroom that the study makes it clear that voters do not want state abortion bans, regardless of how they feel about abortion.
“We often have the impression that Republicans and Democrats are very polarized on the question of abortion — and we did find some areas of polarization. But what is striking is that we found two areas, big areas, where there is a kind of consensus,” Kull said.
Released Wednesday, this study is the fifth in the Swing Six Issue Surveys that the university has been rolling out in the run-up to the November election. The survey involved nearly 5,000 adults, including around 600 in each state of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and another 1,200 nationally. (Kull said his team had selected the states before North Carolina was considered a swing state.) The survey was fielded June 18 through July 3, before Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic presidential ticket, but Kull said he didn’t think that would have much bearing on the abortion survey’s results.
In a survey conducted between June and July, majorities of Democrats and Republicans in six key swing states said they oppose criminalizing abortion before fetal viability. (Courtesy of the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation)
Unlike many public opinion polls, this is a public consultation survey, offered in English and Spanish, that provides participants briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Participants were informed, for example, that criminalizing abortion can mean prison time or fines for the doctor, the pregnant person or both. They were then guided to choose whether and whom to punish. Kull said the content is reviewed by experts with different takes on the issues to ensure accuracy and balance.
Large bipartisan majorities in every swing state said they did not want abortion to be criminalized before fetal viability (73% to 80%), including Republicans (57% to 70%) and Democrats (83% to 93%). Nationally, among those who favored making abortion a crime, 5% said the doctor should be punished, 5% said the woman, and 10% said both.
In Arizona and Nevada, where voters will cast ballots on whether to protect abortion rights in their state constitutions, 9 in 10 Democrats and 7 in 10 Republicans do not want to criminalize abortion before viability.
When it comes to criminalizing abortion at any stage of pregnancy: 61% to 70% in the swing states were opposed, including 73% to 85% of Democrats across the states and 52% to 55% of Republicans in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada. Among Republicans in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it was 41% to 48%. Nationally, 8 in 10 Democrats and half of Republicans held this view.
Participants also broadly supported ensuring access to birth control nationwide by prohibiting state governments from restricting or banning it, including 71% to 81% of Republicans and 86% to 93% of Democrats, as well as 81% nationally. There was more division when it comes to federal funding of abortion and regulations like mandatory ultrasounds and waiting periods.
Seventy percent of participants nationally also overwhelmingly said abortion should be decided at the federal level, regardless of where they stood on the issue.
“After the Dobbs decision, there was widespread commentary that, OK, well now … it’s going to be a states’ issue, and that appears to not have been a real resolution for most Americans. Most Americans seem to want it to be a federal law, for it to be resolved nationally,” Kull said.
The survey is now available to the public.