A person holds a sign that reads “Mass Deportation Now” on the third day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 17, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Leon Neal, Getty Images.)
WASHINGTON, D.C. — On the campaign trail, President-elect Donald Trump repeatedly said he’d declare a national emergency and use the military to deport millions of noncitizens.
That has a lot of people — including many who are authorized to be here — wondering how much longer they’ll be able to stay. But amid the worries, activists and leaders of the immigrant community can only guess what legal, political and economic limits Trump will face when he takes office in a few months.
There are roughly 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States, and Trump has made it sound as if he plans to deport a huge number of them — and maybe people who were brought here at a young age and are protected under Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, those such as many Haitians in Springfield who have temporary protected status, and those from Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela who have been allowed to come to the United States under a parole program.
Worry over what the incoming Trump administration might do to any of these groups was palpable here on Nov. 13 at a conference sponsored by the National Immigration Forum, which advocates for immigrants among the business community, law enforcement and faith leaders.
As she accepted an award from the group, Officer Mitchell Soto Rodriguez of the Blue Island, Ill., Police Department broke down. A DACA recipient from Mexico, she told the audience that she might lose her protections and be forced out of the country.
Reyna Montoya is also a DACA recipient and she founded an organization in Phoenix that supports immigrants.
“A lot of our young people right now are terrified,” she said, explaining that even before Trump has taken office damage has been done.
“As soon as we heard the outcome of the election I started texting, calling, checking in with our students,” Montoya said. “A lot of them started telling me they were afraid. A lot of them shared that they go to a school that is a school of faith — a private institution. They said all the students that look a little brown started getting targeted. Their classmates said, ‘Are you ready to get deported? Are you ready for your family to get deported?’ In a faith institution. This is the reality we’re waking up to. I don’t have to imagine family separation. My father was detained for nine months in 2012.”
But as with his first term in office, Trump’s big promises on immigration are likely to run into practical problems that stop them somewhere short of fulfillment, several people said.
“That’s the big question,” said U.S. Rep. Veronica Escobar, D-Texas, whose El Paso-based district runs along the Mexican border. “We really don’t know what to anticipate in terms of scope and efficiency and scale.”
Despite what Trump might have said on the campaign trail, he and Biden deported about the same number of undocumented immigrants during their terms — and both deported far fewer than Barack Obama did during his first term, which started in 2009.
“A lot of Americans don’t know that deportations are going on in America and happening all the time and I don’t think they know in what number,” Escobar said. “Anything above and beyond that will take more resources. Whether Congress gives Donald Trump all the resources he needs for manpower, money for the actual flights, and everything else it will entail, that’s possible. Congress may appropriate a lot more money for this. At the same time, under Republican control in the House, Congress is trying to make deep cuts to domestic programs. So they’re going to have to figure out a balance.”
Jennie Murray, president and CEO of the National Immigration Forum, said Trump, like his predecessors, will likely prioritize deporting immigrants who commit crimes and the “permanently undocumented” — people who are in the country and have made no application to be lawful permanent residents, or green card holders.
“But I doubt he’ll be able to get through his full agenda,” Murray said.
One reason she cited was the $150 billion price tag that is predicted to accompany Trump’s mass-deportation promises. Others are economic and political.
Across the United States the business community is having a hard time finding workers. Its leaders are likely to resist if Trump goes too far in making the labor pool even smaller, Murray said.
“Businesses will start to get up in arms when they start to lose so many workers in a moment when the labor market is struggling so much,” she said. “They don’t have legally authorized workers now, and (the business community) will really start to push back.”
And while one might not know it from the Trump campaign and the results of the election, there’s a lot of sympathy among the public for certain groups of immigrants, Murray said. Which isn’t to say that many in those groups aren’t living in fear.
“The Haitian community is anxious about what the incoming president will do, like ending (temporary protected status) for Haitian people and mass deportation,” said Rose-Thamar Joseph, operations director of the Haitian Community Opportunity Center in Springfield.
She’s been trying to reassure members of her community since Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance this summer spread the racist lie that Haitians in the community were stealing neighbors’ pets and eating them.
“We know the USA is a country of laws, but I don’t know what is going to happen,” Joseph said. “We are trying to educate the community to try to lower their stress, but that’s all we can do.”
Murray said the National Immigration Forum’s polling shows that those with temporary protected status, DACA recipients and Afghan Allies who fled to the United States enjoy overwhelming public support.
“When we get to those populations, there’s a lot of affinity for them,” she said. “‘It’s not those people when we talk about immigrants,’ is what the polling is showing us. When we get to that category is when we start to pull on the psyche of the American voter. They’ll say ‘Whoa, whoa, whoa. I may have held up a mass-deportation sign, but I didn’t realize you were going to be sending this (emergency medical technician) who I know is important to my community… That’s when you’re going to see a real gut-check with Americans. I think that’s when Americans will literally begin to protest.”
Trump already is facing pushback from members of his own party over another part of his deportation plans — using the military to round up and deport the undocumented. On Sunday, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., called the proposal illegal.
And Escobar, whose district includes the huge Army post Fort Bliss, said using troops for immigration enforcement muddles their mission.
“What I am very concerned about is that Trump is likely to use the military, or want to use the military for this,” she said. “That should be shocking to veterans and members of the military community and all Americans because it degrades our military (readiness), it takes the focus off their mission, and they’re not trained to engage this way.”
Montoya, the DACA recipient and Arizona immigration activist, was asked if she could find hope amid all the uncertainty.
“The hope is on you, and the question is simple,” she said. “What are you willing to do to protect immigrants?”
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