While Vermont’s political party leaders are largely focused on a handful of state Senate races this fall that could alter the balance of power in that chamber, a number of state House races — from Grand Isle and Caledonia counties in the north, to Rutland and Bennington counties further south — could spur change in the lower chamber, too.
Democrats currently hold a 105-seat supermajority in the 150-member House, which means they have enough seats to, in theory, override any of Republican Gov. Phil Scott’s vetoes with a handful of votes to spare. As Scott has wielded his veto pen frequently in recent years, the House has flexed that power frequently, too.
But whether Democrats will maintain such a large advantage, which was also bolstered by an additional four seats held by Progressives, will come down to how voters view the party’s legislative record over the past two years — and, perhaps just as importantly, whether Scott and his allies have convinced those in competitive districts that Republicans can do better on the key issues of property taxes and affordability.
The GOP currently holds just 37 seats in the lower chamber, though the legislative minority benefits from the backing Scott is eager to provide from his bully pulpit.
Liam O’Sullivan, House caucus director for the Vermont Democratic Party, has been focusing on securing his party’s supermajority this fall. He said he does not think voters are buying into Scott’s messaging that the party leading the Legislature deserves to be punished at the ballot box for cost-of-living challenges.
“The increased cost of almost every essential service, from health care to education, is undoubtedly hurting Vermonters,” he said. “But the widespread discontent the governor wants us to believe exists just isn’t translating at the doors and on the phones.”
Jason Maulucci, who is Scott’s campaign manager, said the governor and his allies “have no illusions” that Republicans will flip enough House seats to gain an outright majority themselves.
But chipping away at Democrats’ outright supermajority, even by just a few seats, could force the party’s leadership to work more closely with Scott — who is expected to cruise to reelection — and his Legislative allies, Maulucci said. It’s not entirely clear what that relationship might look like, though, in the wake of a 2024 Legislative session that was marked by deep rifts between Scott and the Legislature’s Democratic leadership.
Republicans are all but certain to flip at least two seats, with two House Democrats not seeking reelection and the party having not recruited alternative candidates. Those are for the Addison-Rutland seat, currently held by Orwell Rep. Joseph Andriano, and the Orleans-3 seat, which has been held by Rep. Dave Templeman of Brownington.
“Our view of success would be to make enough gains — between Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats — that, whatever the numerical breakdown is, there’s enough support for the governor’s agenda that it will force the supermajority, or the majority, to the table and negotiate,” Maulucci said.
The governor has declared his support, publicly, for more than 30 House candidates, many of whom are Republicans trying to flip seats currently held by Democrats.
One such race is in a district that has seen razor-thin margins at the polls for years — the Grand Isle-Chittenden House district, which includes the five towns on the Lake Champlain Islands and the western part of Milton across the water.
Both of the two-seat district’s incumbents — Democratic Rep. Josie Leavitt of Grand Isle, and Republican Rep. Michael Morgan of Milton — are running for reelection. But there is an additional Republican, and Democrat, seeking one of the seats, too.
That other GOP candidate is Leland Morgan, who held one of the district’s seats from 2020 to 2022 alongside Michael Morgan, who’s his nephew. Michael Morgan won the 2020 race by just 20 votes. It was also a consequential contest — in winning, the Morgans unseated then-House Speaker Mitzi Johnson, a South Hero Democrat.
In 2022’s election, just over 100 votes separated the first and fourth-place candidates in the Grand Isle-Chittenden district, sending the race to a recount. The Islands also have a high-profile, competitive Senate race this year that could drive voters to the polls.
“That’s a strong pickup opportunity,” Maulucci said, as the GOP is confident the race will “be within, you know, just a handful of votes.”
Scott’s camp also likes its odds to the east in the Caledonia-3 district — Newark, Sutton, Sheffield, Wheelock and Lyndon — which currently has one Democratic (Dennis LaBounty) and one Republican (Beth Quimby) seatholder. But one of the area’s longtime former Republican representatives — Martha “Marty” Feltus of Lyndon — is now vying to get back into the House and likely has significant name recognition.
Meanwhile, in the nearby Caledonia-1 district — Waterford, Barnet and Ryegate — incumbent Democratic Rep. Bobby Farlice-Rubio is facing a challenge for the first time since he was elected two years ago from Republican Debra Lynn Powers.
Further south, Chris Pritchard of Pawlet is seeking to unseat Rep. Robin Chesnut-Tangerman, D-Middletown Springs, in the Rutland-Bennington district, which also includes the towns of Tinmouth, Wells and Rupert.
The seat has gone back and forth between Democratic and Republican control over the past three elections, with the race decided by just 32 votes in 2020. Though Chesnut-Tangerman lost that year, he came back in 2022 to win by more than 150 votes.
Another area that could see a close race is the Bennington-1 district — Woodford, Searsburg, Readsboro, Stamford and Pownal — where two candidates are running for one open seat to replace the retiring Democratic Rep. Nelson Brownell. Those vying for that seat are Republican Bruce Busa — who came within 30 of votes of defeating Brownell in 2022 — and Democrat Jonathan Cooper.
Maulucci said Scott and other state GOP leaders’ hopes for this year are buoyed by the fact the party picked up seats in the last presidential election year, 2020. That year, the state GOP gained three seats, knocking down a combined Democratic/Progressive veto-proof coalition to 99 seats, one short of the number needed to override a veto.
The pendulum swung the other way in 2022 — a midterm election year — when Democrats made up their losses, and then some, and the left coalition grew to a historic total of well over 100 members.
Higher turnout could be a boon for the state’s GOP, drawing out voters in rural, more conservative districts, Maulucci said. Just shy of 60% of registered voters turned out in Vermont in 2022, versus about 73% in 2020, according to state data.
But the presidential race could, at the same time, also pose a challenge for Republican candidates, Maulucci said — specifically those who, like Scott, style themselves as moderate Republicans and oppose presidential nominee Donald Trump and vice presidential nominee JD Vance’s right-wing, populist politics.
Maulucci said many voters who walk into a polling station on Election Day might not have any idea who their state representative is, or know anything about the candidate challenging them. But they will see the Republican label alongside the person’s name, Maulucci said, and could tie the candidate to Trump.
That’s a connection the state’s Democratic party has hammered repeatedly on the trail this fall — and is a major reason, according to Maulucci, the governor has gotten so involved with down-ballot campaigns.
Read the story on VTDigger here: Some House races will test Phil Scott’s influence — and Democrats’ resilience.