CHERNIHIV, UKRAINE — An agricultural worker unload cereals from a combine as workers harvest a large field of barley near the border with Russia in the Chernihiv region on August 30, 2023 in Chernihiv, Ukraine. Photo by Pierre Crom/Getty Images.
Any conversation concerning support for the people of Ukraine should be dominated by ethical, religious and humanitarian perspectives.
In the long course of history, that is how our actions will be judged.
Insofar as those values have become largely subservient to economic considerations, however, I’d like to point out that ceding the land of Ukraine to the Kremlin will result in economic damage to America’s agricultural sector and threaten the long term food security of many nations.
While many analysts have stated that Ukraine’s land is not the target of Putin’s attack, we must remember that the territory of Ukraine contains vast areas of productive farmland that form one of the major breadbaskets of the globe.
The total productive capability of that region has only been partially realized. Political disasters have annihilated development for generations, before collective farming stifled incentives. The infrastructure of the region is insufficient for the vast distances involved.
But things are changing fast, and technology, communication and education are bringing agriculture in the Ukraine into a new era, and some parts of the globe are now wholly dependent on agricultural production from that region.
The commonly quoted statistic states that 15 African countries receive more than 50% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, but even that doesn’t capture the big picture: Much of Africa, the Middle East and Asia receive Ukrainian wheat, barley and sunflower meal.
Allowing Ukranian production to fall into Russian control would put the food security of many more nations into the hands of Russian influence, and Russia has shown many times that it is very adept at using that type of sway to their advantage.
Let’s also consider the long-range economic repercussions for America, especially in the agricultural sector.
Our American farmers, their cooperatives — and the corporations that market grains and commodities — will be competing with a much stronger Russia, which has historically leveraged its controlled inventories to manipulate global markets.
While Russia was blockading Ukranian grain exports, it offered free grain to six African nations to increase their dependence on Russian wheat.
Ultimately, the first producers of free world grains and commodities — including our American farmers — will be competing against an even stronger Russia should it capture Ukraine’s grain supply.
When I was a student attempting to save money to start farming, I worked for many farmers; many of them I counted as friends. They often listened to and agreed with the
conservative radio commentator Paul Harvey ,who promoted his version of America First with the slogan “A Bushel of Wheat for a Barrel of Oil.”
Their frustration about volatile and often inadequate commodity prices was being channeled against the Soviet bloc grain cartel, as well as the oil exporting countries of the time. They often complained that the American farmer could compete very successfully against other producers, but not against foreign governments like Russia.
If we abandon the Ukraine breadbasket to Russia, we will be giving the Kremlin a powerful tool to manipulate and subvert our commodity markets for an indeterminate period of time.
This is a cost that America can ill afford.