It could be days or even weeks before the nation learns which party controls the U.S. House and Senate. Shown is the U.S. Capitol on Oct. 9, 2024. (Photo by Jane Norman/States Newsroom)
WASHINGTON — Republicans flipped control of the U.S. Senate after picking up seats in Ohio and West Virginia according to projections by The Associated Press, though there were too many uncalled House races early Wednesday to predict which party will hold that chamber when the new Congress begins in January.
Montana’s Senate seat, currently held by Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, also appeared to be slipping toward Republicans, likely increasing their majority in the upper chamber for the next two years.
Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin’s highly competitive Senate races had yet to be called, potentially bolstering a GOP majority even further.
Senate Republican Whip John Thune of South Dakota, who is vying to become the chamber’s next GOP leader against Texas Sen. John Cornyn and Florida Sen. Rick Scott, released a written statement applauding voters’ decision.
“Tonight, with Republicans reclaiming majority control of the U.S. Senate, we can begin to turn the page on this expensive and reckless chapter of American history,” Thune wrote. “As we wait for additional results, I am optimistic that President Trump will be successful, our majority will grow stronger, and we can continue our work together to create a safer and more secure country for every American.”
Cornyn said in his own written statement that he was “confident our new conservative majority can restore our institution to the essential role it serves in our constitutional republic.”
“We will restore the important role of Senate committees and reestablish the regular appropriations process,” Cornyn wrote. “We will improve communication, increase transparency, and tap into the wealth of talent in the conference to include everyone’s expertise and opinions. And we will return power back to the members; there will be no more backroom deals or forced votes on bills without adequate time for review, debate, and amendment.”
Newly elected Republican senators, AP projections said, include Bernie Moreno in Ohio, who flipped that state’s seat; U.S. Rep. Jim Banks, who won his first Senate campaign in deeply red Indiana; John Curtis, who secured victory in Utah; and West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, who flipped the seat currently held by Joe Manchin III as predicted.
New Democratic senators include Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, New Jersey U.S. Rep. Andy Kim, Delaware U.S. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester and California U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, all of whom defeated GOP challengers in solidly blue states.
How it could play out
There were two possible scenarios for the 119th Congress, slated to begin on Jan. 3, 2025, following the AP’s call for Senate control.
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Democrats flip the House and Republicans regain the Senate, maintaining a divided Congress with the opposite party in control of each chamber.
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Republicans keep their majority in the House and regain control of the Senate for unified GOP control.
Each option brings with it significant implications for the next president’s legislative agenda, their ability to quickly set up a Cabinet via Senate confirmations and whether they’d be able to move judicial nominations through the upper chamber, including possible Supreme Court nominees.
A divided Congress would require the next president to negotiate bipartisan deals on must-pass legislation and make concessions with the opposing party to move any major policy changes through Congress.
Unified control of Congress for Republicans could mean more movement on legislation, though whether those bills become law will rest on who occupies the Oval Office.
Senate confirmations ahead
The Associated Press, the news organization that States Newsroom looks to for race calls based on decades of experience, had announced 27 Senate races as of 12:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday.
Republican senators in Florida, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming easily won reelection in those GOP strongholds.
Democratic senators from Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Virginia and Washington were all reelected, as was independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who typically votes with Democrats.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., congratulated Alsobrooks on her win and making history as the first Black woman Maryland elected to the Senate.
“Angela is no stranger to breaking barriers — and in the Senate Angela will bring the same drive and values she’s practiced throughout her life to ensure all Marylanders’ freedoms are protected and every family in her state can thrive,” Peters said in the written statement.
New Jersey’s Kim will become the Senate’s first Korean-American lawmaker in the country’s history.
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines congratulated the reelected and incoming senators, including Justice, who flipped the West Virginia seat red.
“Jim served the people of West Virginia well as their governor, lowering taxes and creating opportunity in all parts of the state,” Daines said in a written statement. “I know he will continue to do the same in the Senate, and we are looking forward to having Big Jim and Baby Dog in D.C.”
Senate control is slightly more important for the next president than having their party in charge of the House, since the upper chamber is tasked with vetting and confirming Cabinet secretaries, several key executive branch appointments, judicial nominees and Supreme Court justices.
Unlike the House, where lawmakers face reelection or retirement every two years, senators are elected to six-year terms, meaning about one-third of the chamber is on the ballot during a given election year.
This year, 34 Senate seats were up for reelection, 23 of which were held by Democrats, while 11 are Republican controlled.
House toss-up race calls
The AP had called 321 of the 435 House races as of 12 a.m. Eastern Wednesday, but many of the toss-up races were still too close to determine the winner.
Republican and Democratic incumbents were overwhelmingly holding onto their districts, while several new members were elected to open seats. Some of those lawmakers-elect were on track to make history.
Sarah McBride, for example, was poised to become the country’s first openly transgender person elected to Congress, according to the AP.
McBride secured her Democratic bid in Delaware’s 1st Congressional District against GOP challenger John Whalen.
The Human Rights Campaign celebrated McBride’s victory.
The LGBTQ+ advocacy group’s president Kelley Robinson called McBride a “devoted public servant, a bulldog for her constituents, and someone who represents the interests of everyone she serves,” in a written statement.
“This historic victory reflects not only increasing acceptance of transgender people in our society, ushered in by the courage of visible leaders like Sarah, but also her dogged work in demonstrating that she is an effective lawmaker who will deliver real results,” Robinson added.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., won his reelection, potentially setting him up to remain his party’s leader should the GOP keep its majority. Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who would become speaker if his party regained the House, had also safely won reelection in his New York district.
The nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics wrote in analysis released Monday on the fight for congressional control that “the battle for the House has been a Toss-up for essentially the whole cycle” and that its experts generally expected “the presidential and House winner was likelier than not to be the same.”
A total of 218 seats are needed to control the House, though that is the bare minimum in a chamber where members regularly miss votes, take extended leaves of absence for illness or injury and sometimes resign mid-session.
Republican leaders struggled to pass partisan bills during the last two years with a razor-thin majority, currently split at 220-212, and Democratic leadership would likely do so as well should they become the majority.
At-risk House lawmakers had yet to experience any major upsets, but eyes were on several swing districts, including Arizona’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts and Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District.
Other races to watch include Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, a seat targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to flip, which was labeled “lean Democratic,” by Sabato’s on Monday.
It was the same for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, a rematch that could “lean Democrat.”
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