Rep. Chuck Grassie, a Rochester Democrat, stands at his polling station on Nov. 5, 2024. Grassie was defeated by his Republican opponent, Sam Farrington. (Ethan DeWitt | New Hampshire Bulletin)
In the most evenly divided House district in the state Tuesday – Rochester Ward 4 – every ballot counted. But two voters nearly struck a deal.
The pair, an older woman voting Democratic and a younger man voting Republican, met in line and realized their votes would cancel each other out. “We almost just said ‘nix it’ and went and had a beer,” the woman, who identified herself as Lucie, said.
In the end, both voted. And voters in the district, which saw a tie vote in 2022, chose to send a Republican candidate to the state House, handily ousting Democratic incumbent Chuck Grassie.
That pattern played out again and again Tuesday, as a string of vulnerable state House Democrats lost their seat to Republican challengers. And now, New Hampshire Republicans appear to have staved off attempts by Democrats to take back control of the chamber, and have expanded their slim lead in the House.
The party is expected to win 222 of the House’s 400 seats, according to a social media post by the New Hampshire House Clerk on X Wednesday afternoon.
Those numbers couldn’t be immediately confirmed; the Associated Press had called just over 100 of the legislative seats as of early Wednesday afternoon.
But if true, the final numbers would be a significant increase in control for Republicans, and would give them more comfortable margins to pass major pieces of legislation next year. Republicans started out the last two-year term with the slimmest majority in modern New Hampshire history – 201 Republican seats to 199 Democratic seats – and were barely able to keep that lead amid a series of resignations and special elections that session.
Heading into Tuesday’s election, Democrats were defending 18 seats that were won in 2022 by less than 2 percent of the vote; Republicans were defending 19. That created the potential for either party to make gains, and put control of the House at the whim of minuscule changes in the direction of the presidential election.
But early returns suggest Republicans have been more successful in flipping those districts.
The Associated Press confirmed that Matt Coker had won his reelection to his seat in Meredith, giving Republicans an automatic additional seat after Coker left the Democratic Party and became a Republican last session.
And while the AP had not issued calls as of Wednesday early afternoon, voting returns suggested Republicans had flipped Democratic seats in Allenstown, Berlin, Boscawen, Brookline, Goffstown, Hollis, Laconia, Littleton, and Pembroke, with more potential wins pending further reported results.
In Laconia, Democrat Charlie St. Clair, a well-known figure who helps organize the Laconia Bike Week, appeared to hold on to his seat. But Republicans claimed victory over another seat in that district previously held by Democrat David Huot.
In Goffstown, voters turned a district that had been represented by three Republicans and one Democrat into an all-Republican district.
They did the same in Littleton, voting to put Republicans in all three seats rather than just two.
As a result, the New Hampshire House began taking a more traditional shape, where one party has a decisive hold over the chamber. It’s a contrast after two years of unusually thin margins that forced certain compromises and made every Republican bill an uncertain affair.
Both candidates for Rochester Ward 4 stood near the entrance of the McClelland Elementary School; Grassie, 72 and the founder of the Rochester Childcare Center, and his Republican opponent Sam Farrington, a University of New Hampshire student and farmer. Both candidates defined the central issue of the race differently.
“Education,” said Grassie in an interview. “Rochester has an education system that’s struggled. When I talk to voters I say, you know there are two places where you can get your money: One is from the state, and the other is from local taxpayers. And I’m not here to take more money out of local taxpayers. I’m here to try to get more money from the state.”
Farrington identified broader economic problems. “Families are being burned with high prices, housing, health care, the list goes on.”
He said at the State House he would push to reduce the size of New Hampshire’s government and reduce the tax burden. “The government, like families, needs to tighten its own belt,” he said.
But even in divided Rochester Ward 4, many voters Tuesday said they hadn’t paid special attention to the House races. Some said they were unaware of the rare, tied election in 2022 and the special election redo effort that put Grassie in control.
Instead, voters said their choices for the state Legislature largely reflected their top-of-ticket presidential and gubernatorial choices.
Lucie, who declined to give her last name, said she was driven to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris for president by concerns over health care and the continuation of funding for Medicaid to help her son, who has a disability. She felt a Donald Trump presidency raised the risk of cuts to programs. Her choice of Harris translated to Joyce Craig and down the ballot to Democrats.
“I’ve seen it fluctuate,” she said of Medicaid funding. “… And when it changes administrations, I’m starting to see things change.”
Doug Nadeau, the Trump voter Lucie befriended in line, was driven – like many Republican voters – by concerns over the economy and personal finances. Nadeau, who works in the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, has seen his salary rise over the years. But he said the cost of food and goods had risen with it, reducing his increased benefits.
“Money went a long way back then, back when Trump was in office,” he said. He added that he had not paid close attention to the governor’s race or the legislative votes, but that he voted Republican down the ballot to match his choices with his economic concerns.
The low awareness of down-ballot state House and Senate races is well known to New Hampshire politicians; data shows that some voters leave the bottom races on their ballots blank after voting for president and governor.
Standing amid a forest of signs outside the McClelland Elementary School, a polling place, Rochester state Sen. James Gray said he and other lawmakers have instructions they give to voters to make sure they don’t miss any races: “Turn the ballot over, start at the bottom, and vote up.”
One voter, Donald Smith, stood as a rare exception. An independent, Smith voted for Trump, and largely stuck with Republicans down the ballot, including Kelly Ayotte, the Republican who won the race for governor Tuesday. But when it came to his choice of state House representatives, Smith wavered.
He voted for Farrington, against Grassie. But he also voted to send some Democrats to the State House in the city’s floterial district, such as John Larochelle.
Smith doesn’t consider party when deciding, he said; he considers people.
“It’s time for some new blood,” he said “… We need to make some changes. And you’re not going to make those changes if you just keep voting the same people and the same policies and plans over and over again.”
