The AARP poll was conducted between Sept. 11 and 13 following last week’s debate. People watch the ABC News presidential debate between Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump at a debate watch party at The Abbey, an iconic gay bar, on September 10, 2024 in West Hollywood, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)
A poll of voters statewide released Wednesday found that the presidential and Senate races in Wisconsin remain close, especially among older Wisconsin voters.
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris led Republican former President Donald Trump polled 49% to 48% in a head-to-head match up. Of those polled, 3% were undecided. When third-party candidates were included, Harris led Trump 48% to 45%.
The AARP poll interviewed 1,052 likely Wisconsin voters, including 600 voters over the age of 18 and an additional 452 likely voters aged 50 and older. The poll included in total 800 voters over the age of 50. It was conducted between Sept. 11 and 13 following last week’s debate and was conducted by Republican-leaning polling firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic-leaning Impact Research.
When focusing on voters aged 50 and older, Trump had a narrow lead of 47% to 45%. Within this group, Trump had a 10-point lead with 51% of support from voters between the ages of 50 and 64, while Harris had a 6-point lead with 49% of support among voters 65 and older.
The poll represents a large shift from the last AARP poll done in Wisconsin, before President Joe Biden decided to leave the race. In the July poll, Trump led Biden 44% to 38% on a ballot that included third party candidates.
“Wisconsin voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” AARP Wisconsin State Director Martha Cranley said in a statement. “If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters 50 and older, from protecting Social Security to supporting family caregivers.”
Of voters ages 50 and older, 77% said a candidate’s positions on Social Security are very important in deciding whom to vote for in November. Other important issues among the age group included Medicare, helping people stay in their homes as they age and the cost of prescription drugs.
The poll also showed that the Wisconsin Senate race remains close. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who is running for her third term, led Republican candidate Eric Hovde by 50% to 47%. Of the participants, 3% were undecided.
Among voters 50 and older, Hovde held a 1-point lead with voters between the ages of 50 and 64 favoring him by 11 points. Meanwhile, Baldwin held an 8-point lead among voters 65 and older. Independent voters favored Baldwin by 9 points.
The poll also asked participants about the Wisconsin Assembly, where new maps have put the majority in play for the first time in over 10 years. It found a 46% tie between Republicans and Democrats. With voters 50 and over, the “generic” Republican held a 6-point lead. Democrats held an 8-point advantage among voters 18-34, which drove the tied result.
GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX