U.S. Rep. Jared Golden (left) and his Republican challenger, Maine Rep. Austin Theriault. (Campaign photos)
The first public poll of the race for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District shows a tight race between U.S. Rep. Jared Golden and his Republican challenger Austin Theriault.
The Pan Atlantic Research 64th Omnibus Poll, released Wednesday, found 47% of 2nd District voters in favor of Theriault, compared with 44% in favor of Golden, with 9% undecided. The survey has a margin of error of 3.5%.
Those undecided voters were more likely to be younger and to be registered independents or Democrats, the poll found.
The race for Maine’s 2nd District is one of the closest watched congressional races in the country. At a campaign event this summer, Republican U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said the race is one of the top five in the nation. The Cook Political Report currently has it listed as a toss up.
Support for both candidates varied when broken down by demographic. For example, female voters were more likely to back Golden and male voters were more likely to back Theriault. When considering education level, those with a four-year degree or higher were more likely to indicate support for Golden, whereas more people with less than a four-year degree indicated support for Theriault.
These findings are based on a sample of 812 registered and likely voters in the November election surveyed between Sept. 5 and 15.
The poll also found Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, leading over Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump, affirming the findings of another poll of Maine voters released last month.
Statewide, the Pan Atlantic Research poll has Harris leading Trump by nine percentage points, with 50% in favor of Harris and 41% in favor of Trump.
However, when broken down by congressional district, presidential support varied.
In the 1st Congressional District, the poll found Harris leading Trump by 28 percentage points. However in the 2nd District, Trump led Harris by 7 percentage points.
This varied support could impact Maine’s electoral votes, as the state awards two based on the statewide vote but one vote for each of the two congressional districts. Trump won the 2nd District in both 2016 and 2020.
Statewide, 6% of voters said they were still undecided on their presidential pick, and third party candidates Cornel West, Jill Stein and Chase Oliver each had 1% of voter support. Respondents who said that they were undecided or who would back a candidate aside from Harris or Trump were more likely to be younger and to be registered independents, the poll found.
The poll also asked voters about their support for the referendum questions that will be on the state ballot in November and the majority of respondents said they’d vote “yes” on every question aside from one — the question about the state flag.
Question 5 asks: “Do you favor making the former state flag, replaced as the official flag of the State in 1909 and commonly known as the Pine Tree Flag, the official flag of the State?”
Poll respondents were split, with 40% indicating that they intend to vote “yes” and 40% indicating that they intend to vote “no.” However, 20% of respondents indicated that they were still undecided.
While the majority of respondents supported the remaining four referendum questions, the largest difference in support was shown for Question 1, which asks, “Do you want to set a $5,000 limit for giving to political action committees that spend money independently to support or defeat candidates for office?”
Most respondents (69%) said they intend to vote “yes” on this question, whereas 15% said they intend to vote “no,” while 16% indicated they were undecided. Support for the question was also stronger among Democrats and independents, compared with Republicans.
While on its face the referendum seeks to limit contributions in Maine to independent political action committees, otherwise known as super PACs, the ultimate goal of the organizers behind the effort is to put Maine law in conflict with federal precedent in order to get the U.S. Supreme Court to rule that PACs should be regulated, as previously reported by Maine Morning Star.
Voters also support the three bond questions, which are related to technology innovations, restoring historic buildings and a statewide trail system, according to the poll.
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