Mon. Nov 25th, 2024

A campaign sign urges voters to vote no on Question 1, which asked voters if Rhode Island should hold a constitutional convention. A sign supporting Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and her running mate Tim Walz is in the background. The Rhode Island Democratic Party opposed Question 1. (Janine L. Weisman/Rhode Island Current)

Rhode Island voters are likely to reject a ballot question asking if the state should hold a constitutional convention for a fourth straight decade, a pre-Election Day poll from the University of New Hampshire (UNH) suggests.

The survey of 753 likely Rhode Island voters last week found 47% planned to vote against the ballot measure — 19  percentage points higher than what the UNH Survey Center found in its previous poll in September when 28% of respondents said they would vote no.

A little over a third — 34% — of those surveyed between Oct. 29 and Nov. 2 said they would vote in favor of holding a convention, which is down four percentage points from September. The remaining 18% were undecided, down 15 percentage points from the prior survey.

UNH’s pre-election poll has a margin of error of 3.9%. 

Just over half — 54% — of those surveyed ahead of the general election said they had heard a little or a lot about the once-in-a-decade ballot measure, while 61% said they understood the question.

“That’s a good sign there’s been more clarity,” University of Rhode Island Political Science professor Emily Lynch said in an interview Monday.

What could be helping voters make up their mind, she said, is that Rhode Island’s two major political parties have started to firm up their own stances to Question 1 on the statewide ballot — something they’ve only started to do in the last couple months.

“Those who are interested in politics and are paying attention — they may be be looking at these endorsements,” Lynch said.

The first article of the constitution of the state of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations as adopted by the convention, assembled at Newport, September, 1842. (Library of Congress)

Rhode Island’s convention question goes on the ballot in years ending in the number four. Voters rejected ballot questions seeking to convene one in 1994, 2004 and 2014. Changing the state’s constitution doesn’t require a convention. The Rhode Island General Assembly may also propose constitutional amendments during any election year. 

The last convention in the state was held in 1986. Rhode Island was the last U.S. state to hold a constitutional convention.

The Democratic Party made its stance official Sept. 25 after sending out an email titled “WATCH NOW: REJECT QUESTION 1” produced by Rhode Island Citizens for Responsible Government — the coalition of 37 labor and civil liberties organizations that has spearheaded the campaign against a constitutional convention since its formation in late July.

The coalition claims that a constitutional convention opens the path for well-funded special interest groups to roll back many of the state’s civil liberties and reproductive rights.

But so far, nearly all spending has come from the coalition, according to filings made with the Rhode Island Board of Elections

As of Monday, Rhode Island Citizens for Responsible government has spent over $134,000 toward digital and radio ads, along with mailers and “campaign organization services.” The group has received nearly $150,000 in donations from labor unions and civil rights groups such as Planned Parenthood of Southern New England and the Rhode Island chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union.

Rhode Island House Speaker K. Joseph Shekarchi issued statements and an op-ed column opposing Question 1 in the past two weeks. Shekarchi warned dark money could flow into the state to try and influence what amendments would go before voters. (Michael Salerno/Rhode Island Current)

The anti-convention coalition has also received support from such prominent Latin American figures such as Central Falls Mayor Maria Rivera and General Treasurer James Diossa — who rallied against the measure on Oct. 25 at an event at the Latino Policy Institute in Providence. A day earlier, House Speaker K. Joseph Shekarchi, a Warwick Democrat, issued an op-ed column arguing against holding a convention. Shekarchi and U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse issued joint statements urging Rhode Islanders to reject Question 1.

Much like the coalition, Shekarchi warned that dark money would flow into the state to try and influence what amendments would go before voters.

“Outside groups would treat Rhode Island as a test case in an attempt to cement these issues into the constitution of any state,” Shekarchi wrote. “We must not allow our constitution to be sold to the highest bidder.”

About 51% of Democrats polled by UNH said they plan to vote against the convention question; 30% planned to vote in favor of Question 1, while the remaining 19% were undecided.

The only spending in favor of a convention cost a little over $5,000 and was spent by former Rhode Island Republican National Committeeman Steve Frias. He produced a video tying the convention to the ongoing closure of the westbound Washington Bridge in Providence.

“Your car isn’t the only thing stuck,” a female voice says over a shot of bridge traffic. “We can’t move forward unless we vote ‘yes’ on Question 1.”

The video was shared by the Rhode Island’s Republican Party on Oct. 30, the day after the party went public on X to voice its support for the convention, saying that the measure could bring transparency to state government. The GOP’s post cited potential outcomes of having a convention such as proposals to establish an inspector general’s office, a line item veto on the budget and term limits. All proposed amendments passed by convention delegates must go before voters.

“If there is a push to change the status quo, it would come from those who have less power in the state,” Lynch said.

Republican voters remain split on the issue, according to UNH’s pre-election poll — 39% said they would vote yes, while 40% planned to reject holding a constitutional convention. The remaining 20% of GOP voters surveyed were undecided.

Should a majority of Rhode Islanders vote to move ahead with a convention, the state would have to set up a special election to select 75 convention delegates to represent each district in the House of Representatives. Delegates would then gather, debate, negotiate and approve a set of amendments that would appear on the ballot for the 2026 general election.

Cost estimates for the convention range between $2.6 million and $4.6 million, which includes an estimated $1.3 million toward a special election to select the 75 convention delegates.

Polls are open Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. in all cities and towns, except for Block Island, where polls open at 9 a.m.

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