Montana Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy and former President Donald Trump address a rally in Bozeman on Aug. 9, 2024. (Photo by Blair Miller, Daily Montanan)
A new comprehensive poll commissioned by Montana’s AARP and released Thursday shows that incumbent Democrat U.S. Sen. Jon Tester continues to fall behind incumbent Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, while economic issues top the list of concerns for most voters.
The poll, which utilized two polling firms, right-leaning Fabrizio-Ward and left-leaning David Binder Research, focused on issues and voters more than the age of 50, which play an outsized roll in the Montana electorate.
The research also indicates that incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte holds a strong lead over Democratic challenger Ryan Busse, who remains largely unknown in the polling data.
The results also show that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump maintains a sizable lead over Democrat Kamala Harris, while Montana’s western Congressional district remains competitive with Democrat Monica Tranel trailing closely behind Republican incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke.
Tester falling behind
While polls released so far have shown Tester behind, most have shown the three-term incumbent within the margin of error, making the race too close to call. But in the AARP poll, the combined polling, which had a margin of error of +/- 3.5%, shows Tester outside that margin.
The data also seems to provide an insight as to why the Montana Democratic Party is fighting to keep the Green Party off the ballot this year. In head-to-head polling, Sheehy maintains a 6-point advantage, but when the other candidates are added to polling, that grows to an 8-point lead — meaning that any votes siphoned from Tester could be critical.
The breakdown of voters in the U.S. Senate race paints a clear contrast of the deep divisions within Montana’s electorate, which tend to run consistently throughout many of the races and issues. For example, Tester holds a strong lead among voters ages 18 to 49, up by a range of 1 to 7 points. However, Sheehy holds a commanding lead among voters over the age of 50, by as many as 17 points. Tester, meanwhile, holds a slight lead among female voters and independent voters; Sheehy holds a nearly 20-point lead among men.
Those divides continue into other categories, with Tester holding a lead among urban and suburban voters, but trailing by at least 20 points among rural voters.
One of the things that surprised pollsters was how well known Sheehy is among the electorate. Sheehy, a relatively new resident to Montana and someone who has never held political office, has a net favorability rating of +3 points, while Tester suffers from a negative approval rating with a -4.
“Both candidates running for Senate are extremely well defined with more than 9-in-10 holding an opinion of both,” the report said.
“This demonstrates how much money is being spent on this race that only 7% of Montanans haven’t heard of (Sheehy) and-or he’s undefined,” said polling expert Bob Ward of Fabrizio-Ward.
The favorability of both Sheehy and Tester break down largely along the same demographics with women, urban and younger voters having a decidedly positive view of Tester, while older, male and rural voters holding a much stronger view of Sheehy.
Pollsters told the media at a briefing on Thursday that polling was conducted during the last two weeks of August and admitted that Sheehy has had a slew of negative news come out recently including a false claim of training in Glacier National Park, questionable business decisions, and making disparaging comments about the Crow people.
They also said that there are clearly issues that could see more traction with voters, including preserving Social Security and securing Medicare’s expansion.
One of the details of the polls shows that personal economic issues are the top concern, especially voters over the age of 50.
“Sheehy holds a sizable 38-point lead over Tester with this group,” said the poll results.
Among those older voters, Social Security and Medicare are the top issues, but the cost of housing and other personal pocketbook issues remain high.
The largest motivators for many older Montana voters centered strongly on preserving Social Security, and more than half of the respondents said that the program will be a major source of personal income.
As the poll drilled down into other issues, older Montanans are almost universally worried about property tax relief, with a whopping 95% saying they supported property tax relief. Another strong category of agreement among Montana voters is renewing Medicaid expansion at 74%.
“We don’t often see that kind of support,” said polling expert Seiji Carpenter of David Binder Research. “Usually, if numbers poll at 80%, it’s a sure thing, so to see property tax at 95%. But 74% support Medicaid expansion and that even includes two-thirds of Republicans.”
While Medicaid expansion renewal is often thought of as a party-lines issue, the support to renew it is strong across all categories. Renewing Medicaid expansion has a 64% support rate even among voters older than 50 who identify as Republican.
“For Tester to win the race, he has to consolidate this independent vote and take some of the Republicans,” Ward said.
Some of the differences for the two candidates is telling, especially among women and those with college degrees. For example, Tester is a farmer from Big Sandy, but is far behind among those in rural areas and those without a college education. Tester enjoys sizable advantages with those groups, but that’s a trend in contrast to Montana’s demographics. Overall in Montana, 58% of the population is considered rural and 63% have less than four-years of college education.
“Getting to the economic issues for Tester is going to be critical,” Ward said. “Tester can be more competitive with things like Social Security and Medicare.”
Still swinging
Though Montana’s electorate has seemed to move more to the political right, and Republicans, especially in 2020 when Republicans took every major statewide office, and then, in 2022, secured a supermajority in the Legislature, the poll suggests there is still strong evidence to believe that Montana’s tradition of “ticket-splitting” and “cross-over voting” still exists. That, the polling experts said could play a pivotal role in the 2024 election.
For example, swing voters older than 50 who do not vote a straight party ticket constitute 25% of Montana voters. Straight-party Republicans constitute 46% of the electorate older than 50, while that number shrinks to 28% for Democrats.
Of those swing voters, 60% of them prioritize economic issues, as opposed to immigration or abortion, which tend to align more strongly with party affiliation.
Both polling firms agreed that while voters have recently trended to becoming more entrenched in partisan politics, there’s still room for movement, especially among independents.
“The persuadability of voters has gotten smaller than when I started 30 years ago,” Ward said. “There was more flexibility.”
However, that doesn’t mean that all votes and all issues are locked in.
“We’re still seeing a good amount of bouncing around on topics,” Carpenter said. “It’s just less than what it has been historically.”
Economy and immigration
The poll also gave data on what issues are motivating Montana voters. While the polling firms asked about a list of subjects, economic issues topped the list, with concerns about personal income, the cost of housing, Medicaid and property taxes all showing up. When taken together, they indicate that “personal pocketbook” issues remain the dominant issue.
However, as a single-subject, the topic of immigration also polled highly. Polling firms noted the deep divide on the subject, though, with many older and Republican voters ranking it high, while Democrats and independents tended to center on “threats to democracy” or reproductive rights.
That means that voters tend to care about very different things, depending on their respective political tilt.
Montanans told the pollsters that they are highly motivated to vote. In fact, 85% of Montana voters say they are a 10-out-of-10 for motivation. In questions that test how likely voters are to turn out and vote, 92% of voters over the age of 50 said that they are likely, which is 15 points higher than voters under the age of 50.
Seventy percent of voters who were polled said they thought the country was moving in the wrong direction.
Carpenter told the group on Thursday that the overall mood of the Montana electorate is “grumpy,” and that because Montana voters are disproportionately older, those voters will play an outsized role. And many of the categories show a deep division within the electorate for candidates, with many younger voters leaning liberal and older voters tending to lean toward conservative candidates.
Ryan who?
In the race for Montana governor, Gianforte leads, but the numbers suggest a different narrative: Not many people seem to know or have an opinion of Busse.
“The Democratic challenger is not well known at all. Most haven’t heard of him or don’t have an opinion,” Ward said. “But to the extent that he is known, he has a positive image.”
According to the polling, Gianforte leads Busse by a 54-to-38% margin.
However, among those who know the candidates, Busse maintains a stronger favorability slightly. Previous polling in Montana has shown Gianforte with a lead in the polling, but a neutral favorability rating.
Like fellow Republicans Sheehy and Trump, Gianforte enjoys strong support from older male voters, particularly those in rural areas. However, Busse maintains a positive image among women, younger voters and even holds a positive image among older voters — but for those who know him.
“Of all polled in the survey, Gianforte has the largest image gap between voters 50+ and voters 18-49 at a net 31-points. The 50+ are pushing him into positive territory,” the poll report said.
A tale of two House races
In the race for Montana’s two house seats — the western and eastern districts — it’s a tale of two different races.
In Montana’s eastern race, current Montana Auditor Troy Downing, a Republican, looks nearly assured of victory with a 21-point lead on Democratic challenger John Driscoll. Downing leads in all categories except among voters who are declared Democrats. The race speaks, in part, to the anemic results from the Democrats on the eastern side of the state, and the strength of the Republican Party as the state stretches east.
However, in Montana’s western district, Zinke leads by a 49-to-43% margin. The AARP polling data shows that Zinke appears vulnerable because of his deep unpopularity among younger voters, women and independents.
“Tranel keeps the race competitive thanks to her 14-point lead with voters 18-49,” the poll says. “Travel has a 7-point lead with independents and has Democrats well consolidated, with Zinke ahead thanks to a Republican affiliation advantage in the district.”
Trump’s stable lead
Though national trends and polls have shown an erosion of support for Trump, as many battleground states have either flipped or started to lean toward Harris, the 45th President’s lead in Montana remains stable and constant.
Trump has a commanding 15-point lead on Harris, not so unlike the lead that Trump enjoyed when current President Joe Biden was the presumed Democratic candidate.
Trump runs the tables in almost all demographics, except among Democratic voters and urban Montanans, where he trails significantly.
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