Voting sign at Leon County Courthouse. (Photo by Jay Waggmeester/Florida Phoenix)
More than 8 million Floridians have already cast votes in this year’s election, but Gov. Ron DeSantis thinks the total could prove fewer than in 2020.
The governor said during an Orlando press conference Monday against the recreational marijuana amendment that early in-person votes — 2.5 million of which came from Republicans, outpacing Democrats by more than 1 million — will make up half of the turnout.
“I thought it was probably going to be under. They tell me maybe it’ll be about the same, maybe a little under, maybe about the same,” DeSantis said. “So we’ll see, but bottom line is a lot of people have already voted, and it looks like probably half the vote will have come just from early in-person voting and half will be a combination of mail and Election Day voting.”
More than 11 million people voted in the 2020 presidential election, but here are other down-ballot races and items that could motivate voters to head to the polls Tuesday.
Senate Race
Despite never having won by more than 1.2 percentage points in his previous three statewide elections, Republican Sen. Rick Scott is now on the precipice of being elected for another six-year term, and he’s also vying to lead the Senate GOP caucus.
The underdog, Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former one-term member of Congress representing South Miami-Dade and the Florida Keys from 2019-201, has impressed political analysts for keeping the contest competitive. Polls have shown Mucarsel-Powell within striking distance of Scott even though she did not attract much financial help from outside sources, seemingly required for a candidate who doesn’t have nearly the same name recognition as her GOP opponent.
Read our coverage of the Senate race.
Congressional District 13
In perhaps one of the only competitive races for the U.S. House, Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and Democratic challenger Whitney Fox have spent the last weeks before the election arguing about polls. However, the Pinellas district is definitely Republican leaning. As of late July, nearly 55,000 more registered Republicans than registered Democrats lived in the district, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
On Saturday, Fox received a shoutout from Hillary Clinton, who visited Tampa as part of the get-out-the-vote efforts.
Read our coverage of CD 13.
Dem targets in the Florida Legislature
This election transcends presidential politics, though, with Florida Democrats eager to break the GOP’s supermajority in the Legislature, which requires them to flip at least five House seats from the GOP and turn them blue.
To that end, Florida Democratic Party announced earlier this year its Take Back Florida Distinction Initiative, listing 21 seats the party targeted this election.
There are four congressional races on the list, 16 state House seats, and one state Senate seat.
The Republicans are defending the state Senate District 3 seat held by Sen. Corey Simon. The former NFL player and member of the 1999 Florida State University championship football team defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Loranne Ausley in 2022, and Democrats have targeted regaining this seat as a priority. The candidate it’s banking on to accomplish that goal is attorney Daryl Parks.
Other races Democrats want to flip in the House include Central Florida seats in districts 37 and 47.
Nate Douglas, the 23-year-old running for the the former, is counting on college students to help him win a tight election to unseat Republican state Rep. Susan Plasencia. The race in House District 37, which comprises parts of Orange and Seminole counties, is one of the most competitive this cycle, but Douglas believes that if students from the University of Central Florida head to the polls he will be able to turn the district blue again after Plasencia’s 2022 victory.
In HD 47, an incumbent facing financial controversy is defending against a political newcomer in a race that’s drawn heavy financial investments from the Democratic Party. Democrat Maria Revelles is challenging Republican Rep. Paula Stark, first elected in 2022 in the district containing parts of Orange and Osceola counties.
Abortion and recreational marijuana
Floridians are voting on six constitutional amendments this year but, without a doubt, the two that will draw the most turnout are the efforts to enshrine abortion access and recreational marijuana use in Florida’s Constitution.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has taken ownership of the campaigns against both amendments, increasingly spending taxpayer resources and time on defeating the policy questions that require 60% approval from voters.
Amendment 3 would allow the recreational use of marijuana for adults, and Amendment 4 would protect abortion access until viability or to save the life of the pregnant person. A day before the election DeSantis continued bashing of Amendment 3 but, since early voting started, the governor has toured the state holding campaign-style events against both amendments.
Backers of the abortion-rights amendment see it as the only way to end the existing restrictions, which ban abortion after six weeks’ gestation in most cases.
Read our coverage of Amendment 3 and Amendment 4.
Follow along on Election Day developments with our live blog and check out our live election results page.
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