Oregon lawmakers will enjoy supermajorities this session but they’d be advised to remember that any unpopular policies could hurt them in future elections. (Amanda Loman/Oregon Capital Chronicle)
In contrast to the national scene, Democrats in Oregon have moved into a powerful position. Oregon’s government has returned to something you might call super-control, beyond even what’s often called a trifecta: control of the two legislative chambers and the governor’s office.
They dominate all three and even have a supermajority by holding 60% of the seats in the Legislature. That means they can adopt new taxes or raise taxes without Republican support. The Democrats in the Legislature and Gov. Tina Kotek, a former House speaker, are also likely to be aligned on most of the major issues, which could give them broad ability to do as they wish.
Their supermajority this year also comes at a time when the Republican ability to stage long-term walkouts to block legislation has been curtailed: A still-new constitutional provision penalizes legislators who have 10 or more unexcused absences by banning them from serving a subsequent term.
With few brakes on Democrats in Oregon and with frustrations over the national political scene, they may have an urge to try to fulfill long-standing wish lists.
But as the legislators and governor put together their game plan for the next session, they should maintain some discipline and not push their advantage too far because it could backfire.
To prevent that, the governor and legislators should ask themselves three questions as they prepare to decide how ambitious to be in the upcoming legislative session and beyond.
First, are you leaving enough space to deal with whatever is coming down the road from the new Trump administration?
Messages from the president-elect have been mixed and have changed with time. No one, probably including Trump himself, can say exactly what the next year of his administration will bring. But its policies and actions are highly likely to clash with the ideals and plans of the bluer parts of the country. Many people in states like Oregon have begun to prepare, but the effectiveness of their response will depend in part on what resources, time and effort are brought to bear.
A legislature and a state administration that’s tangled up with extensive internal ambitions may not be well equipped to cope with any national threats.
Second, are you sure you can properly manage what you’re seeking to do?
Oregon’s state government has been better over the years with its aspirations than with execution. The state in recent years has made major policy decisions — often highly defensible — which sounded good in theory but fell short in execution.
Oregonians could point to the Measure 110 drug initiative, public defender structuring and other efforts as examples. The dissatisfaction registered in many polls about Oregon’s government often seems to have more to do with how policies were managed than whether the core idea was sound.
And a third question, with specifically political implications: To the extent you press new ambitious efforts in this session, are you sure you have the real and effective backing of the people who cast the ballots?
Even though Oregon is classed as a blue state, the partisan margins here are tighter than they seem. Kotek, who prevailed in a thin win two years ago, might be among the first to acknowledge that.
Unlike some deeper blue states, legislative supermajorities have been fleeting and fragile. In the legislative term before the election just two decades ago, Democrats did not control either chamber of the Legislature. They have grown their leads only slightly and often have been on the edge of losing control in the Senate.
In the Senate, Democrats held a supermajority after the 2004 election, then lost it after one term. They regained it in 2008, lost it again after one term and regained it in 2018. But then they lost it after two terms. In the House, Democrats have had the supermajority only in the terms after the 2008 and 2018 election cycle — and they lost control of the House in 2010 when the chamber was split.
Democrats would be wise not to give Republicans material — especially on taxes — that they could use to claw back seats in the House or Senate, the latter of which could be slightly more favorable to Republicans in 2026.
The biennial agenda Kotek has proposed calls for serious spending, but it does place some guardrails on it. And it has focus: housing and homelessness, education and behavioral health.
It does not include all things for everyone, and is a starting point as legislators file their legislative proposals for the next session. They, too, will have their focus and desires. Both Republicans and Democrats have their own priorities and while they’re likely to meet on some issues, they’re certain to diverge on others.
It’ll be up to Democrats to shape their agenda so that it retains voter support while working through details that result in policy successes. That’s never simple, but in this term, as holders of all the executive and legislative power they need, it’s on them to do it.