Mon. Nov 25th, 2024

Blue dot signs and red state signs are popping up in the 2nd Congressional District, sometimes with both signs dueling in neighboring yards. (Cate Folsom/Nebraska Examiner)

OMAHA — Nebraska isn’t used to all this national attention in presidential politics. The Cornhusker State spent decades as Iowa’s red-led stepbrother, with mixed-party voters in the Omaha area watching the first-in-the-nation caucuses next door with envy.

But this year, as in 2020, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Politico, the Times of London, the AP, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC and the major networks have sent reporters to the Omaha area to cover the chance of a presidential campaign earning a stray Electoral College vote.

Nebraska and Maine are the only states that award an electoral vote to the presidential winner in each congressional district, along with two votes for the statewide winner. Other states award all their electoral votes to the statewide winner, an approach called “winner-take-all.”

Because of this unusual process, the Omaha area has emerged as a presidential focal point for campaigns on both the left and right. Republicans won the district in 2012 and 2016. Democrats won it in 2008 and 2020. Both parties pay attention to the swing district.

Winner-take-all fight

National attention magnified this year as many saw Nebraska Republicans try, with former President Donald Trump’s help, to change state law to winner take all.

Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen and many Republicans in the officially nonpartisan Legislature discussed calling a special session this summer to shift to winner-take-all. Trump got involved and talked to some lawmakers by phone.

Pillen and other Republicans had said Nebraska should speak with one conservative voice in presidential politics. Democrats said Trump was afraid to compete in the 2nd District and risk losing again, so he tried to change the rules mid-game.

Pillen expressed frustration when Republican State Sen. Mike McDonnell of Omaha, a union leader and former Democrat, held his original position against making the change. Republicans couldn’t overcome a filibuster without his “pivotal” vote and gave up on a special session.

Presidential polling in the 2nd District this year has shown two things: Vice President Kamala Harris is the favorite to win the district, while Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win statewide.

Volunteers, staff out working

Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb has said she and local parties are working with 800-1,000 volunteers and 25 paid staffers for the Harris campaign and Democrats in national races in the 2nd District.

Nebraska Republican Party Chairman Eric Underwood said recently he has at least 300 volunteers helping four paid staffers with the Trump campaign in the 2nd District. On Monday, he and the Trump campaign said the number of volunteers is hundreds higher by now.

Liz Huston, a regional spokeswoman for the Trump campaign, said his campaign has “doubled down on our powerful grassroots efforts across Nebraska.” She said people are rallying behind Trump’s economic message and the need for a more secure border.

“Kamala Harris has had nearly four years to act and has only failed,” Huston said. “On November 5th, Nebraska voters will cast their ballots for President Trump to strengthen our economy, secure our borders, and restore peace through strength.”

Precious McKesson, who cast the 2nd District’s Electoral College vote for Biden after the 2020 election, said Trump and his campaign have spent the closing days of this campaign focused on his ego and his “enemies list.” She is a senior adviser to the Harris campaign in Nebraska.

“Vice President Harris will wake up every day focused on a ‘to-do list’ of priorities to lower costs and help Nebraskans get ahead,” McKesson said. “We’ve been turning enthusiasm into action to reach every voter … and choose a new way forward.”

A supporter holds up a “Nebraska for Harris Walz” campaign sign at a rally in La Vista, Nebraska, on Saturday, Aug. 17, 2024. (Naomi Delkamiller / Nebraska News Service)

History of ‘blue dot’

The “blue dot” buzz started after 2008, when then-U.S. Sen. Barack Obama won a stray Electoral College vote from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. It was the first time Nebraska had delivered an electoral vote to a Democrat since the 1960s.

Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, called it one of his favorite wins. In 2011, Plouffe labeled the 2nd District “the blue dot” in his book, “The Audacity to Win.” The name stuck.

Now Omaha is known globally for the locally designed white signs with blue dots planted in yards signifying Democratic supporters and the competing signs that sprang up with a Trump-haired red Pac-Man eating blue dots in the yards of local Republicans.

In 2020, Nebraskans saw pundits and political scientists start drawing maps showing how Nebraska’s 2nd District, in and around Omaha, could decide a 270-268 presidential election between then-Vice President Joe Biden and then-President Trump.

Paul Landow, a retired political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, helped Democratic campaigns in the early 1990s after the officially nonpartisan Legislature passed a law splitting the state’s electoral votes.

He has said the change fueled hope and helped energize local Democrats into thinking their votes might matter. The change has proven economically fruitful, leading to tens of millions of dollars being spent in each cycle for local campaign staff and advertising.

“If the Democratic candidate can win the blue dot, then it’s likely that he or she is going to take other down-ballot Democrats with him or her,” Landow said. “It becomes more likely that a Democrat is elected to the congressional seat.”

Dona-Gene Barton, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, compared the impact of the stray electoral vote to interest in Husker football. People are more likely to tune in to a game or vote in an election when they think they might win.

She said that energy often translates to interest from both parties, engaging voters in more races, such as the 2nd District U.S. House race between Republican U.S. Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., and State Sen. Tony Vargas of Omaha, a Democrat.

“I expect turnout to be high this year because of the possibility of the ‘blue dot,’ along with the other competitive races and ballot initiatives to be determined in this election,” she told the Examiner on Monday.

Impact of spending mismatch

Bacon has said his race against Vargas was made more difficult because the Harris campaign has outspent Trump’s on advertising in the district more than 20 to 1. That lack of Republican investment could bleed over into races like his, he told supporters again Sunday.

Higher turnout in the 2nd District, which is home to Nebraska’s largest pocket of Democrats, could impact more than just the “blue dot,” observers said.

Nebraska voters are the first nationally to weigh competing amendments on the abortion issue in the same election. If both measures pass, state election officials have said the one with the most votes gains primacy.

The ballot is a crowded one, including a closer-than-expected U.S. Senate race between Republican U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer and registered nonpartisan Dan Osborn. Local election officials predict better than 70% turnout in the 2nd District.

Nebraska Examiner is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Nebraska Examiner maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Cate Folsom for questions: info@nebraskaexaminer.com. Follow Nebraska Examiner on Facebook and X.

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