Lt. Governor Mark Robinson released a video September 19, 2024 calling the CNN report about his past online comments “tabloid trash.” (Screengrab from Robinson’s X feed)
With just over a month until Election Day, a new East Carolina University poll finds Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Republican gubernatorial nominee, trailing Attorney General Josh Stein by ever-widening margins. In North Carolina’s closely watched governor’s race, Stein leads Robinson 50% to 33% among likely voters, with 13 % saying they are undecided.
What’s most notable is the change in this race since late August when the ECU poll showed Stein leading by 6 percent. One month later, that advantage has increased to 17 percentage points.
Attorney General Josh Stein speaks to supporters during a campaign event at The Venue at South Main in Franklinton, North Carolina on Sept. 3, 2024.
Robinson has repeatedly sought to refute a CNN report that he made inflammatory and sexually explicit comments and referred to himself as a “black Nazi” on a porn website prior to the start of his political career. But that revelation caused an immediate drop in Robinson’s support. (A Meredith College poll also recorded a drop in the candidate’s popularity.)
The ECU poll notes that in its previous survey, Robinson had the support of 83% of Republicans and 32% of independents. Now, Robinson has the support of 63% of Republicans and 30% of independents. That’s a 20 percentage point drop among members of his own party.
By comparison, Stein has the support of 90% of Democrats and 48% of independents surveyed.
Stein holds a 27 percentage point lead (54% to 27%) over Robinson among women.
Among Black voters, Robinson’s support has fallen from 9% in September to just 6%.
“The recent scandals surrounding Mark Robinson have had a major impact. What was once a competitive race in the election for governor of North Carolina no longer is. As of now, Josh Stein is the clear and overwhelming favorite to be the next governor of North Carolina,” said Dr. Peter Francia, director of the ECU Center for Survey Research.
As for the presidential race, the ECU polling found that former President Donald Trump holds a two-percentage point lead (49%-47%) over Vice President Kamala Harris among likely voters in North Carolina.
Trump is slated to return North Carolina on Friday to campaign in Fayetteville. Trump has avoided sharing the stage with Robinson during his last two appearances. Republican governors have signaled that they will not campaign on his behalf. Robinson has also lost senior members of his campaign and own state office in recent weeks.
The ECU Poll, conducted September 23 through September 26, is based on 1,005 completed responses to the poll’s questionnaire of North Carolina registered voters who are likely to vote in November’s general election.
Click here to see the topline results of the poll.
