Larry Hogan responds to questions from reporters Oct. 10 after participating in U.S. Senate debate at Maryland Public Television in Owings Mills. Photo by William J. Ford.
Almost two years after he left office, former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is looming over the legislative conversation in Annapolis.
It may not be too much of a stretch to say he’s having more influence now than he did during his eight years as governor, when the Democrats who ran the General Assembly basically did everything they wanted ― even though they never fully came to terms with the idea that the guy was elected twice.
As soon as Time magazine ran the first of its two bombshell stories earlier this month about Hogan’s real estate clients getting lucrative state contracts during his time as governor (more on that later), Democrats in the legislature said they would introduce a bill in the 2025 session to ensure that governors take adequate steps to separate their business interests from their official acts.
Given the fact that the prime sponsor of the legislation will be House Environment and Transportation Committee Chair Marc Korman (D-Montgomery), and that it has already been endorsed by House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones (D-Baltimore County), it has a pretty good chance of passing. Take that, Larry Hogan!
Even more significant, some Democratic leaders appear to be using Hogan’s unanticipated reappearance on the state political scene to dampen any talk of raising taxes in the upcoming legislative session.
There were already whispers about this during the latter part of the 2024 session, shortly after Hogan entered the U.S. Senate race at the last minute and while House and Senate negotiators were debating whether to raise taxes. These same whispers persist today, as Democrats fret (or at least ponder) over the possibility that win or lose in the Senate race, Hogan could turn around and run for governor again, on an anti-tax platform, in 2026.
Since last year, Gov. Wes Moore (D) and Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore City) have said they’re reluctant to raise revenues, unless it becomes absolutely necessary. And a variety of Democrats now wonder and worry about Hogan: Even if he loses the Senate race to Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D), which seems increasingly likely, he’s still well-regarded by voters and may try to take on Moore to get his old job back.
Alsobrooks, Hogan seek to frame the election narrative in snippy TV debate
There may be plenty of good arguments against enacting a tax increase in 2025. But nothing frames a legislative debate like a distinct political threat.
We’ve seen this movie before.
For as long as I’ve followed the General Assembly (almost 29 years now), Democratic leaders have frequently warned their rank-and-file members about the perils of going too far too fast: A progressive proposal on [fill in the blank issue] or a tax increase could jeopardize [insert moderate Democratic lawmaker’s name here] in their swing district when they run for reelection.
It was almost always about preserving the Democratic supermajority, never about using that majority for good or expending any political capital on expanding the social safety net or advancing a progressive agenda. In the legislature, you hear those entreaties a little less nowadays because there are so few competitive districts left.
So this time the argument may be: Better to cut budgets and trim programs and delay bold policy initiatives, with Hogan possibly lurking around the corner, then take any risk before 2026. Maybe the hard parts of Moore’s aggressive agenda, like how to pay to eradicate childhood poverty and confront climate change and actually bring the Red Line to Baltimore, should wait for his second term.
OK…
So what are the odds Hogan actually runs for governor in 2026, a long time from now?
On the one hand, Hogan may be spoiling for a mano-a-mano with Moore, especially now that Moore’s political action committee just started running an ad attacking Hogan for the real estate deals and earnings outlined in the Time articles. That ad concludes with the message: “Hogan made history serving himself. Maryland deserves a senator who serves us.”
Hogan in his charmed latter-day political career has never really had to take a punch like that.
Hogan always likes to talk about how great his poll numbers are, and while Moore’s job approval ratings have been pretty good, they have yet to approach Hogan’s at the zenith of his popularity. Hogan might love the idea of applying the brakes to Moore’s perceived White House ambitions. Hogan also loves being in the spotlight ― that’s surely one of the reasons he decided to run for Senate, because he knew how much his candidacy would shake up the political narrative in Maryland and how much national attention and money this election would attract.
Hogan for years protested that he never wanted to serve in the Senate. But when the possibility of being a pivotal player there like Joe Manchin ― the retiring Democratic senator from West Virginia, who has been one of the most consequential people in Washington since Joe Biden became president ― was dangled in front of him, Hogan took the bait. If he loses to Alsobrooks, he’ll be looking for a new fix and a new reason to try to stay relevant. At a minimum, he is unlikely to discourage speculation that he’d seek a third term as governor.
On the other hand, who knows what the political dynamic will look like in 2026? The answer will partially be determined by who’s sitting in the White House.
Hogan will be 70 years old then, and he might have to scuffle to win a Republican primary. A race against Moore would be brutal, even if there’s a chance of winning ― probably even more brutal than his contest with Alsobrooks has proven to be, where he’s mostly been buffeted by the national political dynamic, Democrats’ fury over abortion rights, and the fact that he’d have to run 35 points ahead of his party’s presidential nominee to win.
Time immemorial
Which brings us back to the Time magazine articles by Eric Cortellessa. The first, delivered Oct. 10, reported that many clients from Hogan’s real estate business received lucrative state affordable housing contracts when he was governor. The second, a week later, said Hogan’s family had sold a lucrative property in Frederick County that was going to be developed during the Hogan administration for state-sponsored affordable housing.
These were meticulously reported and thought-provoking pieces, by a journalist who has written a few other well-researched articles that have shaken up Maryland politics in the recent past. Talking to reporters after his televised debate with Alsobrooks, Hogan immediately dismissed the first Time piece as “some old false conspiracy theory” and a manufactured, 11th hour partisan hit.
But Cortellessa’s reporting has occasionally singed Maryland Democrats, not just Republicans.
I’m sure there are conversations in newsrooms throughout the state about why a national reporter like Cortellessa had the wherewithal to publish investigative pieces like this while Maryland publications did not. Part of it is that most Maryland publications, ours included, have limited resources and can’t easily dive into a complex story about Hogan’s real estate holdings, business operations, votes on the Board of Public Works and state ethics laws.
But I’d also argue that Hogan’s communications shop, especially early in his tenure as governor, did a pretty effective job of intimidating state-based reporters and grinding them down so they wouldn’t be tempted to make these inquiries. In ealry 2018, when we were still pretty much a blog, Maryland Matters ran one of the very first articles about Hogan’s real estate holdings, written by a well-respected freelancer who had been on the staff of the defunct Baltimore City Paper. I’m still suffering PTSD from that experience, I am ashamed to say.
Cortellessa’s articles did a very good job of raising questions about whether Hogan should have regularly recused himself during Board of Public Works votes, or at least flagged potential conflicts of interest. You can certainly argue that he should have put his holdings into a blind trust, the way Moore has. But he got a sign-off from the State Ethics Commission for his arrangement for giving up day-to-day control of his business, and it’s hard to say whether the Time articles connect enough dots to prove wrongdoing on Hogan’s part.
That hasn’t stopped Maryland Democrats from suggesting he has, since the articles were published. It has now become part of the daily barrage of arrows slung in Hogan’s direction, along with constant reminders about his record on abortion ― and what GOP control of the Senate could mean for women’s reproductive health. But until the ads began airing from Moore’s PAC this week, there was little public discussion of the Time reporting, unless you’ve been reading Democratic news releases.
Larry Hogan’s fate in the Senate election isn’t likely to be determined by the reporting on his real estate holdings. But the Time articles are a reminder that if Hogan runs for office again, Maryland media might want to dig deeper into his record as governor and how it impacted his family’s business interests.
As for the idea that a hypothetical future Hogan candidacy could drive ― or more accurately impede ― policy in Annapolis today, when Democrats control the governor’s mansion and the legislature, well, Democratic voters would be within their rights to wonder whether they can do better.