About 52% of Rhode Island voters surveyed say they would vote for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris if the election were held today while 40% say they would back former Republican President Donald Trump. (Left: Joe Raedle/Getty Images. Right: Kyle Davidson)
Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a 12-percentage-point lead over former President Donald Trump among Rhode Island voters, who are taking concerns over the economy and immigration to the ballot box, according to a new Rhode Island Current poll.
The poll, conducted by the MassINC Polling Group and funded by a grant from the Knight Election Hub, surveyed 800 likely voters from Sept. 12 to 18.
More than half, 52%, of those surveyed said they would vote for Harris if the election were held today. In comparison, 40% backed Trump. The remainder were unsure, undecided or supported a third-party candidate.
The 12-percentage-point lead Harris maintains over her Republican opponent is notably smaller than the 20-percentage-point margin by which Biden defeated Trump in 2020 in Rhode Island. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released Sept. 18 also showed Harris with a 20-percentage-point lead over Trump among Rhode Island voters.
“Rhode Island seemed a little closer than maybe we were expecting, but it’s a very safe lead for Kamala Harris,” Richard Parr, senior research director for MassINC, said in an interview Monday. “I don’t think this is going to become a swing state anytime soon.”
Parr also said that the Rhode Island Current poll, while weighted to reflect the political preferences of the state overall, could have inadvertently sampled more Republican-leaning independents than Democratic-leaning independents.
The Rhode Island Current poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points, with 95 percent level of confidence.
When the poll included those leaning but not yet fully committed to a candidate, Harris’ lead inched up to 13-percentage points.
Unsurprisingly, Harris’ support was strongest among registered Democrats, 89% of whom supported her, while 91% of registered Republicans threw their weight behind Trump.
“They’re both nearly maxing out their respective bases,” Parr said, though he noted that 7% of Democrats crossed party lines to support Trump, compared to 4% of Republicans gunning for Harris.
Registered independents were nearly equally divided, with 45% backing Harris and 41% backing Trump if the election was held that day.
Outside of the expected distinctions based on party affiliation, Harris also drew strong support among women 18 to 44 (57%), people with advanced degrees (73%), and residents in Bristol and Newport County (67%). Trump’s Rhode Island base leaned upon survey takers with some college education but no degree (51%) and Kent County residents (56%).
It’s (still) the economy, but immigration policy a top concern
Jobs, wages and the economy topped the list of priorities on voters’ minds, named by nearly two-thirds of respondents, regardless of party affiliation. However, when asked to choose whether Trump or Harris knew best how to manage the economy, Trump held a 1-percentage-point lead over Harris among survey takers (although the margins were much wider in favor of Harris among Democrats, and Trump among Republicans).
Despite Rhode Island’s proximity from border wars and immigration debates, immigration policy was the no. 2. issue on voters’ minds, tied with the future of democracy in America.
Parr attributed the focus on immigration policy primarily to independent and Republican voters, among whom more than six in 10 named this as a top issue. By contrast, less than 40% of Democrats were thinking about immigration policy, instead focusing on abortion/reproductive rights and climate change as the most pressing issues.
Rhode Island seemed a little closer than maybe we were expecting, but it’s a very safe lead for Kamala Harris.
– Richard Parr, senior research director for MassINC
While Rhode Island is geographically distant from immigration-related border wars, the influx of migrants — and lack of services to accommodate them — in neighboring Massachusetts also may have made the issue seem closer-to-home for Ocean State residents, Parr said.
“Even in the past six months, we’ve seen immigration rise as an issue of concern here in Massachusetts,” Parr said. “It’s not only among Republicans, but also independents and even Democrats. It makes sense given that Rhode Island is super close to Massachusetts geographically and politically.”
Despite confidence in the safety and integrity of presidential state elections, nearly three-quarters of respondents reported feeling that their rights were being threatened. The concern over individual rights remained high across party affiliation, gender, age, race, education and levels. Republican men felt most at risk, with 85% reporting their rights were under threat, versus the low of 60% among Democratic men.
Regardless of political affiliation, most agreed Harris came out on top in the presidential debate against Trump in Philadelphia on Sept 10, with 59% saying Harris won, versus 21% for Trump. Harris also led Trump on questions about relatability, mental sharpness and following the law. However, 40% of survey takers thought Trump would bring change to Washington, compared to 34% who backed Harris.
Both Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, enjoyed higher favorability ratings than their Republican counterparts, with over half of voters sharing positive sentiments on each. In contrast, 57% felt unfavorably toward Trump, while his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, was viewed unfavorably by 56% of voters.
Of those surveyed, 43% identified as Democrats, 27% as Republicans and 29% as independents.. Just over half were women, compared to 47% men. More than eight in 10 survey participants were white, while 16% identified as “all others.” The survey included responses spanning a variety of ages, income levels and education, as well as four geographic regions: Providence County, Kent County, Washington County and a combined category for Bristol and Newport counties.
GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX