Maine’s ranked-choice 2024 presidential ballot. (Photo by Maine Morning Star)
When accounting for ranked-choice voting, a new survey found Vice President Kamala Harris is slightly ahead among likely Maine voters and more so in the 1st Congressional District. However, the poll predicts that Republican candidate Donald Trump is likely to prevail in the 2nd District, which would earn him an electoral vote under Maine’s unique system.
A narrow majority (51%) of likely voters said if voting today they would rank Harris first on the state’s ranked-choice ballot, according to the SurveyUSA/FairVote ranked choice poll released Friday. Another 43% said they would rank former President Donald Trump first, with independent and Green Party candidates getting support from a sliver of voters.
However, the poll shows Trump pulling ahead in the 2nd District, as he did the other two times he ran. Though the poll didn’t find him earning a majority, 49% of likely voters in the large, mostly rural district said they would rank him first, compared to the 44% who would pick Harris as their top choice. With undecided voters removed, Trump secures 51% of the 2nd District, the poll said.
Because Maine divides its electoral votes by statewide popular vote and congressional district, if the poll’s findings bear out, Maine would give three votes to Harris, who also earned a majority in the 1st District (58%), and one electoral vote to Trump for the 2nd District.
The presidential race in Maine will use ranked-choice voting because of third party candidates Jill Stein of the Green Independent Party, Libertarian Chase Oliver and Cornel West with the Justice for All Party. More than eight in 10 voters say ranked-choice voting is “easy” or “very easy,” the survey found, which is an increase from previous years.
Under ranked-choice voting, voters indicate which candidate is their first choice, second choice, and so on. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes on election night, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated and their votes get reassigned to whomever their voters ranked second. This process is repeated until one candidate wins a majority of votes.
In the poll, most voters who picked independent and third party candidates as their first choice ranked multiple candidates, whereas fewer voters who selected Harris or Trump ranked others.
“As expected, third-party voters are using the opportunity RCV provides to express their preference if their first choice doesn’t have a chance to win,” a news release from FairVote said.
An August poll that did not consider ranked-choice voting conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center found 55% of likely voters said they would vote for Harris “if the election were held today,” with another 38% saying they would vote for Trump.
That Pine Tree State Poll also found the presidential race too close to call in the 2nd District.
Maine’s congressional races
The new survey showed incumbent U.S. Jared Golden pulling ahead among 2nd District voters, compared to other previous polls. The Democrat is projected to secure a fourth term with 53% of the vote compared with 43% support for Republican candidate Austin Theriault. The survey had a credibility interval of 3.6 percentage points.
A mid-September poll found the two candidates in a tight race, with Theriault having a slight edge and 9% of voters undecided. Since there are only two official candidates, that race won’t use ranked-choice voting.
Maine’s two other congressional races will use ranked-choice voting: the U.S. Senate and the 1st Congressional District seats. While the poll found that neither of these races needed to actually utilize ranked-choice tabulations, it was close with some candidates just barely securing a majority of votes.
Independent incumbent U.S. Sen. Angus King led his three challengers with 54% of the vote while Republican Demi Kouzounas continued to be his biggest threat with the poll showing 28% of likely voters backing her.
In the poll, Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree earned 60% of the vote, compared to 28% for Republican Ron Russell.
SurveyUSA surveyed 1,079 likely Maine voters between Oct. 24-29 using a sample drawn from home telephones and an online panel on smartphones, laptops and tablets. The pool was weighted to targets for gender, age, education, home ownership, and 2020 presidential vote.
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