Cargo ships at Port Newark, New Jersey shown in 2021. (Courtesy of Edwin J. Torres/NJ Governor’s Office).
U.S. Rep. Jared Golden of Maine recently proposed legislation to impose a 10% tariff on all imports, a plan that mirrors one floated by Republican presidential nominee and former president Donald Trump.
Tariffs have been a recurring focus this election season. Tariffs are popular with voters while economists are, and long have been, skeptical of their merits.
Golden says a universal tariff will result in the U.S. having to prioritize domestic manufacturing, therefore creating more jobs and homegrown innovation. However, political scientists and economists caution that Americans will be left to pick up the tab, due to the complexity of supply chains and likelihood to provoke retaliation from other countries.
“There’s a strong consensus that tariffs are a tax on consumers,”said political scientist Kristin Vekasi, “and that the effects of tariffs are going to be to increase domestic prices.”
At their basic level, tariffs are taxes on imports. Often countries will try to use tariffs strategically for economic and industrial development, which was the case for the early United States. In many ways, that was successful, said Vekasi, who is an associate professor in the department of political science and school of policy and international affairs at the University of Maine.
But the complexity of the U.S. economy today, and the universal nature of Golden’s plan, make that historical success unlikely to replicate, Vekasi added. Instead, she pointed to targeted subsidies and internal tax incentives as alternatives to achieve Golden’s economic objectives.
“If you put a 10% tariff on everything, furniture or textile producers in Maine, for example, might have protection to more effectively compete in the domestic market against Mexico, China, or Bangladesh — lower-cost producers,” Vekasi said. “But it also means that companies farther down in the supply chain that make machinery and buy imported metal or imported intermediate products from overseas also have a 10% increase on the cost of their intermediate goods, so that will make their domestically produced products more expensive and maybe more difficult to compete.”
Vekasi pointed to the effects on Maine industries when Trump imposed heavy tariffs on China in 2018, which President Joe Biden has continued and in some cases added to. Primary producers saw protection, but intermediary producers’ prices went way up.
Iconic Maine industries — lobster and blueberry — also faced retaliation from China and the European Union, which concerned the entirety of Maine’s congressional delegation.
While the president can impose some tariffs without Congress under the Trade Expansion Act, the U.S. Constitution generally grants Congress the power to levy tariffs on goods. As the Nov. 5 election approaches, Maine Morning Star asked those challenging Golden’s reelection as well as the other incumbents and challengers running to represent Maine in U.S. Congress whether they’d support Golden’s bill and, generally, where they stand on tariff policy.
U.S. House of Representatives
2nd District
Golden, who is running for his fourth term, is being challenged by Republican Austin Theriault, a freshman state legislator. Both support a 10% universal tariff on imports, citing the need to defend American jobs and products.
“It may be true that tariffs increase the cost of foreign goods that are being imported into the United States but that is specifically what they’re designed to do in order to incentivize the consumption of American-made goods, which will help create American jobs,” Golden said during the first of a series of three debates for CD-2 this month.
Theriault is similarly supportive, however he said he thinks 10% might not be adequate for some industries.
“There are some industries we can look at, including lumber and steel, where those tariffs are going to have to be different,” Theriault said, advocating for tariffs higher than 10%.
While she will not appear on the ballot, there is also a declared, unenrolled write-in candidate running for Maine’s 2nd congressional district, Surry resident Diana Merenda, who told Maine Morning Star she does not support the 10% tariff.
“I’ve always been in favor of free trade,” Merenda said. “Any additional tariff merely gets passed down to the consumer. How does that benefit my neighbors in CD2?”
During the first CD2 debate and when introducing his tariff legislation, Golden also noted the current bipartisan support for tariffs.
Vekasi, the political scientist from UMaine, attributes this to an overall shift toward nationalist thinking in the U.S.
“In general in U.S. politics right now, we see more of a turn towards populist policies that are broadly working towards a nationalist us versus the rest of the world,” she said, explaining that supply chain issues and inflationary pressures during the COVID-19 pandemic made some of the costs of globalization more apparent. “There’s sort of a turn inward in many ways.”
Theriault criticized Golden during the debate for previously opposing tariffs in 2018, using his oft-repeated characterization of the congressman as a “flip-flopper.”
“First of all,” Golden rebutted, “if Austin does this job long enough, he’s going to find some things where he says, ‘you know what, I’ve changed my mind. I’ve got a different perspective right now.’”
Now, Golden thinks the U.S. should continue the current tariffs and expand them.
1st District
U.S. Rep Chellie Pingree of Maine, a Democrat, said she would not support Golden’s proposal to impose a 10% tariff on all imports.
“While there are strategic benefits for imposing tariffs in specific situations, a universal tariff is an enormous tax on consumers, will almost certainly spike inflation, and is almost entirely opposed by economists,” Pingree told Maine Morning Star.
Pingree, who has held southern Maine’s U.S. House seat since 2009, will be facing two challengers, Republican Ron Russell and independent Ethan Alcorn, in the Nov. 5 election.
Russell also has concerns about the universal nature of Golden’s tariff plan.
“Tariffs are a good tool to change behavior,” Russell said. “However, I think tariffs should be targeted as opposed to blanket tariffs.”
Alcorn did not respond to multiple requests from Maine Morning Star about his stance on tariff policy.
U.S. Senate
U.S. Sen. Angus King, an independent, did not respond when asked whether he would support Golden’s bill. Previously, King had opposed tariffs broadly imposed by the former Trump administration on imported steel and aluminum, citing negative effects on local businesses that rely on those products and U.S. allies not excluded from the tariffs.
“You want to do these kinds of things with a scalpel not a chainsaw,” King said at the time.
King, who has held his Senate seat since 2013 after serving as Maine governor, is being challenged by Democrat David Costello, Republican Demi Kouzounas and independent Jason Cherry.
Costello said he would not support Golden’s plan for a 10% universal tariff on imports.
“While I would support maintaining the strategic, targeted tariffs levied by the Biden administration,” Costello said, “I would not support legislation levying a 10% tariff on all imports.”
Kouzounas did not respond to multiple requests from Maine Morning Star about her stance on tariff policy, but in an interview with News Center Maine in June, Kouzounas suggested higher tariffs may be needed.
“We need to bring jobs back here, and we need to maybe add a little bit more tariffs,” Kouzounas said.
Overall, Cherry said he supports tariffs, though has some hesitation about Golden’s plan.
“At first glance it appears to be overly broad in that it could limit the import of construction materials needed to address the housing crisis and items relied upon by U.S. businesses,” Cherry said. “However, since the measures are focused on tariffs for imports used to support federally funded projects and boost the domestic economy, I would be in favor of such measures.”
Cherry caveated that he would want to hear from Mainers opposed to the tariff plan before ultimately determining his stance.
YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE.