The closest races are likely to happen on the coast, the Salem area, eastern Portland suburbs and the Bend area. (Getty Images)
More than three-quarters of Oregon’s legislative races are not likely to be competitive this year. But that still leaves some serious competition.
The odds are that nearly all of Oregon’s competitive legislative races in November will happen in four areas around the state: the coast, Salem area, eastern Portland suburbs and the Bend area. They accounted for nearly all of the tight races of 2022, and they happen to be the parts of Oregon in political transition.
In the last Senate race in 2020 and the last House race in 2022, the coast accounted for two close races in which the winner had less than 55% of the vote. Republican state Sen. Dick Anderson won in the 5th Senate District, with 49.3% of the vote, while Republican Rep. Cyrus Javadi won with 51.1% of the vote. Both of those incumbents are running again this year against new Democratic opponents. As incumbents, they’re probably favored, but not by much.
The southern coast has trended Republican for many years, but the northern coast was largely Democratic until recently. The Senate tenure of former Democrat Betsy Johnson, who ran as an unaffiliated candidate for governor in 2022, may have been a bridge for a transition.
The area has even drawn national attention for a political shift. Nationally, Tillamook County is included among the 206 “pivot counties” which voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and switched to Republican Donald Trump in 2016. Columbia County was also included and stayed red along with Tillamook in 2020.
This election may tell us to what degree that change is hardening.
The Salem area in the last cycle accounted for five close races. One of those, the 10th Senate District, isn’t on the ballot because incumbent Democrat Deb Patterson won a four-year term in 2022. But the four House races could be close again, with all four of the 2022 winners –Republicans Kevin Mannix and Tracy Cramer, and Democrats Paul Evans and Tom Anderson – back again and facing new opponents.
Salem, once Oregon’s largest clearly Republican city, has become its most hotly contested piece of real estate. In the last election, Anderson and Evans won by just over 54% each, which was more than Mannix and Cramer garnered. Spending and other indicators suggest those two face a slightly higher risk this time around, compared with Anderson and Evans.
But all four races are clearly competitive, in Oregon’s capital city that neither Democrats nor Republicans can safely call their own.
The suburban area east of Portland, from Troutdale to Hood River in the north and down to Oregon City and Wilsonville in the south, is not a vast area but it includes a lot of people. In the last cycle –2020 for the Senate and 2022 for the House – it was home to at least eight close races.
Just one is a Senate seat: the 25th District, which was won by Democrat Chris Gorsek. Five of the House races were won by Democrats: Courtney Neron was elected in the 26th District, Janelle Bynum won the 39th, Annessa Hartman took the 40th, Hoa Nguyen won the 48th, Zach Hudson was elected in the 49th and Ricki Ruiz won the 50th. The 52th District stood apart, with voters there electing Republican Jeff Helfrich, who is the House minority leader.
Except for Bynum, who is now running for the U.S. House, all are seeking reelection. And except Nguyen, who again is facing Republican John Masterman, the rest have new opponents.
This area trended Republican a generation ago, but shifted toward a purplish hue and seems to have stayed there.
Finally, the Bend area, which also has been in political transition, accounts for two other seats that were close calls last time and could be again. One, the Bend-centered 27th Senate District, is held by Republican Tim Knopp. But after participating in the 2023 Republican Senate walkout, he is blocked from serving another term by a constitutional provision on legislative absences. Knopp won four years ago by a thin 50.7% of the vote, less than what Republicans once received in that area. Given shifts in the population and a strong campaign, Democrat Anthony Broadman looks like a probable winner this time over Republican Michael Summers, but the margins are not likely to be large.
The 53rd House District, which Democrat Emerson Levy won last time by only about 500 votes, again looks like it might be one of the closest races in Oregon.
Outside these four regions, only one legislative seat, the 7th House District around Springfield, which is held by Democrat John Lively, could be a competitive race. His Republican opponent, Cory Burket, raised nearly $78,000 as of Tuesday, compared with about $112,000 for Lively, and is running an active campaign.
Still, Lively probably has the edge.
The only other close contest last time, the 29th House 29 District that covers Hillsboro and Forest Grove, now has a winner. Democratic incumbent Susan McLain is running unopposed this time.
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