Helicopters from a formation flight event over Naval Air Station Patuxent River fly over the surrounding community in Southern Maryland. (Photo by Erik Hildebrandt/U.S. Navy)
As the Trump administration continues slicing the federal workforce and laying off probational employees in large numbers, much of the conversation on how it impacts Maryland can center around the populous counties that lie just outside of the District of Columbia – Prince George’s County and Montgomery County.
But relative to population size, you’re more actually likely to run into a federal worker in St. Mary’s County than in the either of those counties, given that nearly 10% of the workforce in St. Mary’s is considered a federal employee, according to state data.
With Maryland’s proximity to the federal government, the number of contracts with the federal governments within the state, and the presence of several military bases, Maryland is uniquely exposed and impacted by changes in funding and federal layoffs.
Lawmakers and political science researchers say that focusing on the workers in Prince George’s and Montgomery counties can skew the picture that the far-reaching impacts of federal layoffs will have in other parts of the state — especially as federal layoffs begin to impact the military and defense sector.
“People get distracted by raw numbers instead of percentages,” said Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland. “If you want to understand the impact of something on a local economy, you’ve got to look at it as a percent of the workforce.”
Maryland Matters used data from the Maryland Department of Labor that outlines how many known federal jobs are located in each county and compared them to population numbers from U.S. Census Bureau to approximate the number of federal workers per capita.
The result: The federal workforce extends well beyond the D.C. suburbs, meaning that the impacts of federal layoffs would likely reach into other counties as well, especially if President Donald Trump (R) or Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency decide to target defense funding to cut down on spending in the United States.
That’s the potential situation in St. Mary’s County. The county’s largest employer is the Naval Air Station Patuxent River — which employs 9,800 civilian employees, 5,700 contractors and 2,400 active duty military personnel, according to the base’s website.
“It’s no doubt that St. Mary’s is a company town,” said Del. Matthew Morgan (R-St. Mary’s) in an interview last week. “The main driving force of St. Mary’s: DOD (Department of Defense) government workers and DOD contracts. The economy on this is entirely based on that.”
He referenced St. Mary’s County specifically – which has about 89 federal workers per 1,000 residents, according to Maryland Matters’ analysis.
Layoffs have already started in the defense sector, according to recent news reports, with more cuts possible this week.
“I think that’s something on the horizon, and we should be really conscious of it and do our due diligence,” Morgan said.
Morgan recently faced off with the House Majority Leader Jazz Lewis (D-Prince George’s) on the House floor over a bill aiming to help provide financial and legal assistance to laid-off federal workers. Lewis had insinuated that Republican delegates who represent counties with a high percentage of federal employees aren’t doing enough to protect those workers amid threats of layoffs.
“People often think about Montgomery County or Prince George’s County because we literally border Washington (D.C.), but not actually thinking about a lot of these jobs across the state,” Lewis said Wednesday after the argument went down on the House floor.
“For their size, they have the largest share as a percentage,” Lewis said. “For them to stand up and kind of, frankly, not be defending and trying to protect their own workers is mind-boggling.”
Morgan later countered that Republicans had been advocating for their constituents by been pushing for policies that are friendly to businesses, thus easing the state’s reliance off of federal jobs.
Republicans in the State House have repeatedly said that federal job cuts are unfortunate, but that the cuts point up the need for the state to diversify its economy and wean itself away from government reiliance.
Eberly, a resident of St. Mary’s County, noted that the smaller counties could have a harder time offsetting the impacts if a large swath of their residents who are federal workers get laid off.
“[Prince George’s has] a bit more diversity in their economy,” Eberly said. “Which means, theoretically, they could absorb some of this a little bit better than we could. You take away the federal dollars flowing into St. Mary’s County and our tax base is seriously harmed.”
And it’s not just St. Mary’s County that could be hurt by federal layoffs.
Bill to provide care for laid-off federal workers devolves into partisan feud
Relative to size, Harford County has a rate of federal workers that almost rivals Montgomery County at 43 federal workers per 1,000 people, according to Maryland Matters’ analysis. One of the largest employers there is the Army base Aberdeen Proving Ground.
Del. Andre V. Johnson, Jr. (D-Harford) says that larger counties can overshadow the impacts in his district.
“A lot of times, in any and every situation, those outliers as far as those smaller jurisdictions get overlooked,” he said. “It always does, because the larger jurisdictions always get the most light. And rightfully so, because they have a larger population of people. But still … Aberdeen Proving Ground being our No. 1 employer, it’s going to hurt.”
As the session continues and more federal layoffs loom, lawmakers are looking for ways to soften the blow for Marylanders, such as pushing Lewis’s House Bill 1424, which could come up for a floor vote this week.
“In all intents and purposes, Harford County is a military community … with the new administration coming in, it’s going to affect us in a really big way,” Johnson said. “We’re going to do everything in our power down here in Annapolis to make sure that people can still pay their bills and feed their families.”