Then-President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott. (WESH photo)
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey published Wednesday finds Republicans Donald Trump and Rick Scott maintaining single-digit leads in their races for president and U.S. Senate in Florida, respectively, while showing the abortion-rights initiative falling short.
In the presidential race, Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris, 52%-44%, with 3% undecided and 1% voting for a third-party candidate. When undecided voters were asked about which candidate they are leaning towards, Trump’s lead expands to 54%-46%.
“Female voters in Florida break for Trump, 49% to 47%, making Florida the second competitive state, after Arizona, to find Trump with an edge among women,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement accompanying the poll.
“Other key groups in Florida, such as Hispanic voters, who — like women, broke for Biden in 2020 — are split: 48% support Harris and 47% Trump.”
In the U.S. Senate race between GOP incumbent Rick Scott and former Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Scott has a four-point lead, 48%-44%, with 8% undecided. Since a similar poll was conducted in September, Scott’s support has increased by 2 percentage points, while Mucarsel-Powell has dropped by a point.
Amendments
Regarding the two constitutional amendments that have dominated Florida politics this year, there were mixed results.
The poll shows Amendment 4, the constitutional amendment that would enshrine abortion rights into the Florida Constitution, coming up short with 53% support, 30% opposition, and a crucial 17% still undecided. That’s short of the 60% required for passage.
Amendment 3, to legalize recreational use of cannabis for adults 21 and older, does get exactly 60% in the survey. Another 34% oppose the measure, and 6% say that they are undecided.
President Joe Biden holds a 36% job approval rating among Florida voters, while 57% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Gov. Ron DeSantis holds a 51% job approval, while 41% disapprove of the job he is doing as governor.
The economy ranks as the most important issue facing Floridians. Next up is housing affordability, followed by immigration. Abortion access comes in fourth.
The survey comes as Floridians continue to vote early and by mail ahead of the Nov. 5 general election. As of Wednesday morning, more than 1.6 million Floridians had voted, according to the Division of Elections, with registered Republicans leading registered Democrats by 18,204 votes.
The Emerson College Polling Florida survey was conducted Oct. 18-20. The survey of 860 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.