Nevada incumbent Democratic Reps. Steven Horsford (CD1), Susie Lee (CD2) and Dina Titus (CD3). (Photos: Horsford and Titus/Jeniffer Solis; Lee/Michael Lyle)
All three of Nevada’s Democratic incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives are cash heavy compared to their Republican challengers, and election forecasts for House races foresee no signs of a political upset in Nevada’s congressional races.
Democrats have a credible chance to flip control of the House, where Republicans hold a slim majority, but would need to hold on to current Democratically held seats to do so.
Polling is typically sparse for individual U.S. House races. But several political projections indicate Democratic incumbents U.S. Reps. Steven Horsford, Susie Lee and Dina Titus are on track to retain their seats.
Horsford and Titus’ districts are deemed “likely Democratic” while Lee’s seat “leans Democratic,” according to The Cook Political Report.
Nevada’s only Republican in Congress, Rep. Mark Amodei, doesn’t have a Democratic challenger and will face self-funded nonpartisan candidate Greg Kidd. Amodei is expected to win reelection.
‘Whoop-de-doo?’
Horsford, the Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus and the most high-profile Nevadan in the House, will face former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, a Republican, for the 4th Congressional District.
When talking about the district, which is 15% black, Lee, who is white, was recently caught on tape saying he wasn’t “worried about Black people” according to The Huffington Post.
“They made him chair of the Black Caucus. Whoop-de-doo,” Lee said. “I’m from North Las Vegas. I’m not worried about Black people.”
Lee was the only Nevada Republican congressional candidate to be endorsed by former President Donald Trump ahead of his primary, but only a few days ahead of the election.
A U.S. House election forecast from The Hill ranks CD 4 as “likely Democrat,” and gives Lee a 9% chance of winning.
Horsford raised $3.9 million while Lee raised $919,000 according to June Federal Election Commission filings. Horsford had $2.2 million cash on hand at the time compared to Lee’s $38,000.
In addition to Trump, Lee has been endorsed by Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Johnson has visited Nevada to fundraise for Lee.
The district has only been held once by a Republican since it was created in 2010.
Horsford was first elected to the seat in 2012 but then lost re-election to Republican Rep. Crescent Hardy in 2014, a “red wave” year.
Hardy lost the seat the following year to Democrat Ruben Kihuen, who didn’t seek re-election following sexual misconduct allegations and an ethics investigation.
Horsford reclaimed the seat in 2018, winning by 9 points.
Lee was previously a Democrat during his time in the state Legislature.
He was ousted from his legislative seat during a primary against Democratic state Sen. Pat Spearman in 2012. Lee was then elected mayor of North Las Vegas in 2013.
Lee switched his party affiliation to Republican in 2021, preparatory to a race for governor in the 2022 Republican primary, in which he finished fourth.
Susie Lee seeks fourth term
U.S. Rep. Susie Lee will face Republican Drew Johnson for the 3rd Congressional District, which has long been seen as a swing district.
The seat was one of a few districts across the country to elect a Democrat while also going for Trump in 2016.
Since the district was created following the 2000 census, both parties have viewed it as within reach. But CD3 hasn’t elected a Republican congressional candidate since 2014 when it was held by U.S. Rep. Joe Heck, who served from 2012 through 2016. He opted not to seek re-election and ran unsuccessfully against U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in 2016.
U.S Sen. Jacky Rosen, who briefly represented CD3 before winning her senate seat in 2018, narrowly beat her Republican opponent in 2016.
Susie Lee’s first congressional bid was in a crowded primary for CD4 in 2016 which was won by Horsford. She came in third.
She then won CD 3 in 2018 and has since retained her seat. In Lee’s 2022 race against April Becker, an attorney who previously lost a bid for Nevada state senate, Lee won by four points. If she wins this year, she will be the first person to win CD3 four times.
Johnson narrowly lost a bid against Clark County Commissioner Justin Jones in 2022.
The Hill’s forecast ranks the seat “likely Democrat” and gives Johnson a 7% chance of winning CD3.
Lee has raised $4.2 million and has $2.9 million cash on hand according to June FEC filings. Johnson had raised about $550,000 and had about $49,000 cash on hand.
Lombardo initially endorsed Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama, who dropped out of the primary in January. Lombardo later endorsed another Republican primary challenger, video game music composer Marty O’Donnell, who finished fourth.
Drew Johnson is endorsed by Trump as well as Speaker Mike Johnson.
Titus set for rematch
Titus will face retired U.S. Army Col. Mark Robertson in a rematch for Nevada’s 1st Congressional District, home of the Las Vegas Strip and deemed the safest of the three Democratic held seats even despite heavy redistricting prior to the 2022 midterms.
State Lawmakers approved congressional maps in 2021, much to Titus’ frustrations, that shifted thousands of registered Democrats from CD1 into CD3 and CD4.
Titus briefly represented CD 3 from 2009 to 2011. She was first elected to CD1 in 2012. Prior to redistricting, she won her re-elections by 30 points.
Despite losing left-leaning parts of her district, Titus beat Robertson by nearly 6 percentage points in 2022.
Titus has raised $1.5 million while Robertson has raised $151,000 according to June filings.
She had $1.3 million cash on hand compared to Robertson’s $100,000.
The Hill forecast rates CD1 as “safe Democrat.”
Dems take a pass on CD2
There isn’t a Democratic candidate running for 2nd Congressional District, a solidly red district Amodei has represented since 2012.
Some Democratic politicians, including Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen, and the Democratic-aligned groups, such as Planned Parenthood Action Fund, have thrown endorsements and support behind nonpartisan Greg Kidd.
At the time of June’s filing, Kidd had outraised Amodei with $1.5 million compared to $817,000.
Amodei at the time had more cash on hand with $539,000 compared to Kidd’s $438,000.
The Cook Political Report lists CD2 as “solidly Republican,” and The Hill ranks it as “safe Republican.”