In summary
The Burbank Democrat is poised to take the U.S. Senate seat held by Dianne Feinstein for 30 years. No Republican has won statewide in California since 2006, and Steve Garvey isn’t expected to break that losing streak.
U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, a Burbank Democrat, is expected to cruise to victory in California’s U.S. Senate race against Steve Garvey, a former L.A. Dodgers star seeking to become the first Republican elected statewide in 18 years.
They are seeking a six-year term to replace Sen. Laphonza Butler, who decided not to run herself after she was appointed following the death of Dianne Feinstein, who held the seat for more than 30 years. Schiff and Garvey appear on the ballot twice this year because they are also in a separate but simultaneous race to fill the remainder of Feinstein’s term, which expires in early January.
The race was practically decided after the March 5 primary, in which Schiff’s campaign spent tens of millions of dollars elevating Garvey and elbowing out fellow Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, who might have run a closer contest in heavily Democratic California.
More than $85 million had been spent on the Schiff-Garvey contest by Oct. 30, making it the ninth most expensive U.S. Senate race this general election, according to data from OpenSecrets, a Washington, D.C.-based campaign finance watchdog group.
The matchup all but guaranteed Schiff’s victory — Schiff has consistently led Garvey by a significant margin in overall fundraising and polling. The Burbank Democrat led his GOP opponent 55% to 34% in a poll released Friday by the University of California-Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and Los Angeles Times.
Schiff’s strategy, however, was met with staunch criticism from some progressives, who argued the move risked boosting Republican voter turnout in key congressional districts in November and represented a step back in diverse representation: For the first time in 30 years, California will be represented by two male U.S. senators: Schiff and Alex Padilla.
But facing Garvey also freed Schiff up to campaign for other Democrats: Instead of pouring money into his own race, Schiff has been busy stumping for Vice President Kamala Harris and raising money ($7 million by early October) for other Democrats in swing Senate and House races in other states. He and California’s other U.S. senator, Alex Padilla, campaigned over the weekend in toss-up congressional contests in the Central Valley.
Garvey, who largely ran a low-key campaign, focused heavily on fundraising while skipping Republican Party events. He outraised Schiff in the two most recent quarters while still having less money in the bank overall to spend, campaign reports show. Garvey also made a summer trip to Israel but mostly stayed in the state and appeared on local TV stations for interviews.
The two have clashed over a wide range of issues from abortion to immigration throughout the election cycle. Schiff has tried to associate Garvey with former President Donald Trump and the “Make America Great Again” movement — an attempt to hurt Garvey’s chances among moderate voters while touting Schiff’s own record, since he led the first impeachment trial against Trump, strategists have said.
But Garvey has largely stayed away from Trump, so much so that Trump himself declined to endorse Garvey and said in September he knew little of the baseball legend. Earlier in his campaign, Garvey — who has voted for Trump twice — declined several times to answer whether he’d vote for Trump this election before committing to voting for the former president over President Joe Biden in July, before Biden dropped out of the race.
Garvey has turned Schiff’s attack on Trump against him, arguing in their only one-on-one televised debate on Oct. 8 that Schiff’s focus on Trump would prohibit him from tackling issues that would truly affect Californians and that Schiff has done little to serve his constituents.