Monica Tranel, Democrat running for Montana’s western congressional district seat, speaks at the Mansfield Metcalf dinner in Helena on March 2, 2024. (Photo by Nicole Girten/Daily Montanan)
With absentee ballots set to go out to voters in Montana by the end of this week, Monica Tranel’s campaign and Democrats have been touting record-breaking fundraising and a shift in the race as she tries to unseat incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke in the western congressional district race.
Last week, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan elections forecaster, moved the 1st Congressional District from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican,” indicating the organization believes Tranel has made up ground against Zinke a month out from Election Day.
Zinke beat Tranel in 2022 in the same race, winning by about 3 percentage points and about 8,000 votes.
And though Tranel’s campaign pushed the recent developments as positive, polls and election forecasts still currently favor Zinke in what the Cook Partisan Voting Index rates as a +6 Republican district. Zinke also has broad name recognition as the former Interior Secretary under former President Donald Trump; he raised twice the amount of money as Tranel in 2022, and has so far out-raised her this cycle as well.
“The former interior secretary’s long list of ethics issues, which ultimately resulted in him resigning from the Trump administration, have continued to haunt him, and Tranel has been on TV since July reminding voters of the 18 federal investigations – particularly the ones surrounding shady real estate deals,” the Cook Political Report wrote in its analysis last Thursday.
The change came a day after Tranel’s campaign announced she raised $2.1 million during the third quarter of the year, from the start of July through September. The full quarterly fundraising figures for all candidates will be available after Oct. 15 when the Federal Election Commission filing deadline closes.
Tranel’s campaign said the $5.25 million she has raised during the cycle was the most ever for a congressional challenger in Montana through this point in the race.
“Our supporters and volunteers are stepping up because they want a representative who shows up, listens, and delivers results,” Tranel said in a statement. “This record-breaking support proves that Montanans on both sides of the aisle are ready for change—and I’m ready to keep showing up and being your voice in Congress.”
At the end of August, Tranel’s campaign announced she was the fastest ever in Montana to have raised $4 million in a congressional challenge. In the five weeks since, she has launched separate television and digital ads attacking Zinke on his stances on abortion, housing and China, as well as a radio ad on Montana’s housing crisis.
On Oct. 1, House Majority PAC, which supports Democratic congressional candidates, also kicked off a $415,000 television and digital ad campaign attacking Zinke on housing – the first money the PAC has spent on the race this cycle.
Tranel’s campaign has repeatedly mentioned how she has visited all 16 counties and both tribal nations in Montana’s western district. The U.S. Senate race between Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester and his main challenger, Republican Tim Sheehy, is dominating Montana airwaves, and some political experts have said that race, along with the constitutional amendment on abortion being on the ballot, could have positive down-ballot effects if they can sway independents, some Republicans, and force Democrats out to vote.
Recent polling, albeit some commissioned by Democrats, has also shown a tight race between Tranel and Zinke. A Democratic Congressoinal Campaign Committee poll conducted Sept. 11 through 13 found Zinke leading by a statistically insignificant 1 percentage point. A poll done by Impact Research on behalf of Tranel in late August found Zinke leading by 2 points.
But another poll conducted Sept. 11 through 14 by Noble Predictive Insights on behalf of Inside Elections found Zinke with a five-point lead in a head-to-head race and a four-point lead when including Libertarian Debbis Hayes as an option. An AARP poll also from September showed Zinke with a six-point lead.
Zinke has yet to report his quarterly campaign finance figures, but he has been a steady fundraiser through the cycle. He brought in $1 million during the second quarter of the year and started the third quarter with about $3.1 million in cash, having raised about $6.9 million during that time.
Tranel had raised $773,000 during the second quarter and entered the third quarter with $2.1 million in cash after raising about $3.1 million up to that point. Zinke out-raised Tranel $6.5 million to $3 million during the 2022 cycle.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball also ranks the 1st Congressional District race as one that leans Republican, while The Hill and Decision Desk HQ rank the seat as likely Republican.