Vice President Kamala Harris laughs during her surprise appearance at the first night of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 19, 2024. (Shahrzad Rasekh/CT Mirror)
Connecticut voters favor Democrat Kamala Harris for president over Republican Donald J. Trump, but the GOP electorate here remains loyal to Trump and shares his suspicion that votes will not be accurately and fairly counted, according to a poll conducted for The Connecticut Mirror.
By 53% to 37%, voters prefer Harris, a 16 percentage point lead that sits between the Democratic margins of victory in Connecticut over Trump in two previous elections: Hillary Clinton by 14 points in 2016; Joe Biden by 20 points in 2020. Three percent favored Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
In a rematch of the 2018 U.S. Senate race, two-term Democrat Chris Murphy leads his Republican challenger, Matthew Corey, 51% to 35%. Six years ago, Corey had 39% of the vote. This year, 62% say they never heard of him.
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Party affiliation in Connecticut separates voters not just on presidential preference, but how they view the integrity of the election system and the relative importance of issues like abortion, climate change, gun policies, the economy and the future of democracy in America.
When it comes to confidence in U.S. elections, Democrats and Republicans stand on opposite sides of a vast political divide: About 93% of Democrats say they were very confident or somewhat confident that votes in the presidential contest would be properly counted nationally, compared to just 27% of Republicans.
When the question is how well votes would be counted in Connecticut, the partisan gap narrows. But it still is significant: Half of the Republicans say they are confident in an accurate count, compared to 97% of Democrats and 75% of unaffiliated voters.
Trump insisted without evidence four years ago that his loss was the result of fraud, and his supporters rioted at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, the day Vice President Mike Pence certified the victory by the Biden-Harris ticket over Trump and Pence. Democrats called the attack a threat to democracy.
In the new poll, three quarters of Democrats say “the future of democracy in America” is one of the issues that matters most to them. Sixty-one percent of unaffiliated voters agree, compared to just 38% of Republicans.
There is a rough consensus about the potential for major political violence in Connecticut. Large majorities say it is unlikely: Democrats, 84%; Republicans 71%; unaffiliated, 77%.
On the presidential race, there is little crossover: 93% of Democrats stand with Harris, who was nominated without opposition after Biden quit the race, and 89% of Republicans stand with Trump on his third try. Only 2% of Democrats align with Trump; 4% of Republicans are with Harris.
Ninety-five percent of Democrats and 62% of unaffiliated say Harris did best at the only debate between them, which was held two days before polling began for this survey. Fifty-two percent of Republicans say Trump was best.
Democrats and Republicans differ on the issues that matter most.
For Democrats, at least 60% point to gun policies, climate change, the U.S. Supreme Court, and the character of each candidate; more than 70% mention abortion and the future of democracy. None of those were significant Republican priorities.
The economy (81%), immigration policy (78%), and national debt and the deficit (58%) were the only issues mentioned by a majority of Republicans.
About half of voters of all political affiliations said Social Security and Medicare mattered to them.
Toss-up on who is best to manage the economy
Harris got better marks than Trump as the candidate best able to keep America safe, represent all Americans, follow the law and express a positive view of the future. By margins of about 2-1, voters also saw her as a candidate who could be described as having a strong moral character and being mentally sharp.
Voters split evenly over who can best manage the economy. Trump was favored over Harris, 39% to 33%, as the one who will “bring real change to Washington.”
The CT Mirror survey of 800 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 12 to 18 by The MassINC Polling Group and made possible through a grant from the Knight Election Hub. Voters were contacted via a text message invitation to an online survey and by live telephone interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Every Democratic nominee for president has carried Connecticut since 1992, when Bill Clinton won his first term. Unaffiliated voters are the largest voting bloc in Connecticut with about 41%, compared to 36% Democrats and 21% Republicans.
Harris, who would be the first woman and second person of color to win the White House, is buoyed by overwhelming support by women in Connecticut: Harris has a 26-point lead over Trump among women and a five-point lead among men.
The gender gap is closely watched, as a higher percentage of women than men have turned out in every presidential election since 1980.
About half the voters say Harris is someone they can relate to, compared to 28% of Trump. One in five say they don’t relate to either.
Among the small number of voters who say they will vote for Kennedy, Jill Stein of the Green Party or someone other than Harris or Trump, 42% say they would go for Trump in a two-way contest; 29% for Harris. Eleven percent would not vote.
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