Southwest Florida GOP Congressman Byron Donalds in the Capitol in Tallahassee on Jan. 9, 2024. (Photo by Mitch Perry/Florida Phoenix)
Byron Donalds is now officially a candidate for governor of Florida in 2026 and starts with a huge advantage by already having received the endorsement of President Donald Trump. Does that mean the race is over already?
Several Republicans with whom the Phoenix spoke on Wednesday believe the battle for governor is now Donalds’ to lose, but with Gov. Ron DeSantis determined to support a candidate against him in the Republican primary, a competitive race is still possible, and that includes if that candidate is the first lady of Florida politics, Casey DeSantis.
“I was of the belief that it wasn’t going to be Casey DeSantis, up until when [Ron DeSantis] gave that speech the other day,” said Jake Hoffman, president of the Tampa Bay Young Republicans, referring to the governor’s comments in Tampa Monday touting his wife’s bona fides.
DeSantis criticized Donalds at the same time, saying, “We’ve achieved victories in Florida. A guy like Byron, he just hasn’t been a part of any of the victories that we’ve had here over the left over these last years.”
“I’ll be honest, sitting in the audience there. I thought he had somebody else that he was planning on trying to push,” Hoffman said. “After hearing that, it seems like it’s going to be Casey. I think she’s absolutely got a shot. I think she’s very popular. She hasn’t been put through the political wringer yet, and neither has Byron to this extent at a statewide level.”
Donalds, 46, lives in Naples and was first elected to Congress in 2020. A Brooklyn native, he moved to Florida at age 17 and graduated with a degree in finance and marketing from Florida State University in 2002. He first ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2012 but came back and won a seat in the Florida House of Representatives in 2016 and served four years there.
He immediately became a top favorite for governor after Trump endorsed him last Thursday night, writing on his Truth Social page, “Byron Donalds would be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida, and, should he decide to run, will have my Complete and Total Endorsement,” adding, “RUN, BYRON, RUN.”
Donalds became a favorite of MAGA voters when he endorsed Trump for president and acted as a surrogate for him around the country in 2023 and 2024.
“We have a great governor — Ron DeSantis has done a tremendous job as governor,” Donalds told Fox News’ Sean Hannity on Tuesday night. “But now the job is to keep the best state as the best state in the country, and so that’s going to be the mission at hand, and I’m excited to announce my candidacy with you tonight.”
Dems label him a ‘political opportunist’
Florida Democratic Party chair Nikki Fried dismissed the news, calling Donalds a “political opportunist who should be nowhere near the governor’s mansion.”
“One of the least popular people in Tallahassee politics, Byron is best known for skipping votes, defending insurrectionists, and promoting a revisionist history of Black history that defends Jim Crow. He has little political experience and no executive experience, and is completely unqualified to run the state of Florida,” Fried said.
While campaigning for Trump in Philadelphia last June, Donalds came under fire by Democrats for comments praising Black families under the era of racial segregation in the U.S. (If elected, Donalds would become Florida’s first Black governor).
“During Jim Crow, the Black family was together,” Donalds said. “During Jim Crow, more Black people were — not just conservative, because Black people always have always been conservative-minded — but more Black people voted conservatively.”
Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries suggested Donalds believes Blacks “were better off during Jim Crow,” which Donalds insisted was a lie, adding that “Joe Biden does not care about Black people. He never has.” (Donalds said in 2023 that he did not consider Biden a “legitimate” president).
“Byron is very, very popular up here. He’s been up here. Not frequently but, when he is, everybody loves him,” said John Roberts, the Escambia County Republican Executive Committee chair in Florida’s Panhandle. “He’s very much admired and respected for not only his conservative beliefs, but for his intellect and his ability to articulate supporting individual freedom and the free market, and what is really the Trump agenda, which is really the American agenda.”
A formerly rich GOP field has shrunk
It was just months ago that Republicans were contemplating a rich field of candidates to succeed DeSantis but, since Trump’s presidential victory last November, several of them have moved on.
They include former Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody, appointed by DeSantis to replace Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate; U.S. Rep. Mike Waltz, selected by Trump as national security adviser; Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, endorsed by Trump for the First Congressional District seat last November; and Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez, appointed to serve as interim president of Florida International University earlier this month.
Barry Edwards, a St. Petersburg political strategist who has worked with both Republicans and Democrats in Florida for four decades, believes Casey DeSantis will likely become the anti-Trump establishment candidate and could provide the biggest challenge to Donalds.
“The anti-establishment — I know this is hard to believe — is the governor,” Edwards said Wednesday. “The governor is at odds with and doesn’t get along with Trump. So, he doesn’t have anything to lose. Nor does his wife. Because they’re not part of the establishment. The president chose someone else other than his wife and him. So, his wife is still considering it, because if they don’t, they’re out of politics. There’s nowhere else for the DeSantises to go.”
The Gaetz’ factor?
Edwards does think a third candidate could enter the race: former Panhandle U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, who is no longer in politics after he withdrew from consideration as Trump’s attorney general amid growing doubts he could be confirmed because of a House ethics investigation about alleged payments for sex, including with an underage girl.
“Now the question is, is Matt Gaetz damaged?’ Edwards asked. “Absolutely. But you don’t have to get a majority [to win the Republican primary]. Remember, we don’t have a runoff in Florida. There’s a plurality. So, you have the Byron people. You have the DeSantis people. And you have the Gaetz people. But here’s the kicker — Gaetz has the ability nationwide to raise a lot of money with the far-right of the Republican Party. The Super MAGAs, if you will.”
Other Republicans believed to still be considering runs for governor are Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez.
With Ron DeSantis now pumping up Casey for 2026, would she draw substantial support from Republicans statewide? A recent University of North Florida survey about potential candidates showed Casey DeSantis receiving the highest approval ratings, with 30% reporting a favorable opinion (57% among Republicans) — better than Donalds.
“Ron DeSantis is extremely popular here. We just think he’s the greatest governor we’ve ever had,” said Roberts. “People are behind him 100%. We love what he’s done, and his wife frankly is a very good speaker and a very articulate speaker herself, and so I would not totally discount her. She’s a remarkable lady, and so she certainly has a lot of respect around here.”
Choosing sides
Gates-Skipper would not look forward to a Donalds-DeSantis race.
“People are going to ask me to choose sides and, at this time, I have no comment on that,” she said. “Because I’m friends with both. I just hope that if we come to that, that it will be very respectful. That’s my wish at this point.”
Several Republicans in the Florida Legislature, including House members Berny Jacques from Pinellas County and Juan Porras from Miami-Dade, announced support for Donalds on Wednesday.
The buzz about which Florida Republican has the edge in succeeding DeSantis puts a spotlight on something else — the lack of discussion about any Democrat posing a serious challenge.
“I don’t think Democrats’ have a snowball’s chance — I mean, this is going to be determined in the [GOP] primary,” said Hoffman.
“The top Democrat running head-to-head with a Republican is not viable anymore in Florida,” added Edwards, noting that in the last two election cycles Republicans won races for president, governor, and both U.S. Senate seats by double-digit margins in each case.
YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE.