Ayotte defeats Craig to become the next governor of New Hampshire

Kelly Ayotte, the newly elected governor of New Hampshire, waves to supporters during her watch party in Salem on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (Will Steinfeld | New Hampshire Bulletin)

Republican former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte will be New Hampshire’s next governor, after defeating Democratic former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig Tuesday in a campaign built on a promise of economic continuity, increased focus on crime and immigration, and staunch opposition to progressive policies.

“When I announced this campaign, I said that we were one election away from becoming Massachusetts,” Ayotte said as she emerged to a crowd of supporters Tuesday evening. “And guess what: Not on my watch.” 

Ayotte, 56, sought to build on her six years in the U.S. Senate, and her five year stint as the state’s Attorney General. She made promises to continue Gov. Chris Sununu’s low-tax economic policies and devote more police resources to enforcement of the state’s northern border and the opioid crisis. 

With 57 percent of the vote in, the Associated Press called the race for Ayotte shortly after 10:30 p.m. Ayotte, of Nashua, had secured 51.8 percent of the vote to Craig’s 46.1 percent when the race was called.

Craig failed to rack up wide enough leads in Democratic leaning cities to overcome Ayotte’s advantage in more rural areas. As of 10:30, the two were in a dead heat over control of Manchester, Craig’s hometown. 

Taking the stage at a conference center in Manchester around 9:45 p.m., Craig, 57, said she had spoken to Ayotte and “congratulated her on her victory.” Supporters groaned.

“While tonight isn’t the result we wanted,” said Craig, looking out on the crowd with family members standing behind her, “I’m proud of our campaign and the issues that we focused on.”

Throughout her campaign, Ayotte leaned into opposition to Democratic policies in Massachusetts, such as its taxes on wealthier residents and its housing policies for migrants and refugees. She accused Craig of attempting to replicate those policies. Early in her campaign, Ayotte used the slogan “Don’t Mass up New Hampshire” to capture that sentiment, plastering it on signs and campaign mailers.

Over a blistering series of campaign ads, Ayotte heavily criticized Craig for her leadership of Manchester, where Craig served as mayor for six years. Ayotte and other Republicans argued Craig’s policies led to higher rates of homelessness, crime, and opioids; Craig countered with examples of policies enacted during her tenure that sought to reduce crime, gun violence and the homeless population. 

Craig tried to use her tenure as mayor as its own credential, arguing she had unique executive experience and that she was more connected to the state’s broader issues. Craig noted that violent crime rates dropped 40 percent when she was mayor, touted her efforts to get plans for 2,000 new housing units in the city, and highlighted decreases in opioid overdoses to claim her policies worked at alleviating the crisis.

Craig attacked Ayotte’s record, too, drawing attention to a number of votes Ayotte made as a U.S. senator to pass a national ban on abortions, reduce access to in vitro fertilization, and strip federal funding from Planned Parenthood. Ayotte countered that she supports New Hampshire’s 2021 ban on abortions after six months, with exceptions, and said she would not seek to tighten that law.

Craig also criticized Ayotte’s membership on the board of Blackstone Inc., an investment management company that has been accused of buying rental properties across the country and increasing rents, sometimes dramatically. Ayotte noted that the company had relatively few property holdings in New Hampshire. 

And Craig brought up Ayotte’s support of former President Donald Trump’s re-election effort this year, noting that Ayotte had declined to support Trump in 2016, objecting to his taped comments admitting to sexual assault. 

In an interview Tuesday, Sununu praised Ayotte’s campaign, and argued Craig and Democrats had made a “strategic error” by directing too much of their messaging around the issue of abortion, rather than connecting over economic issues. 

“That’s not what people are about,” he said. “People don’t live their lives based on one issue. They don’t look for leadership based on one issue. And so anytime – if either party were to try that, it just doesn’t work.”

The two candidates sparred frequently over taxes. Ayotte said she would keep the tax cuts passed by the Legislature under Sununu, including the reductions to the business profits tax, the business enterprise tax, and the full repeal of the interest and dividends tax, which will take effect in 2025. And she contended that that economic model had contributed to the state’s low unemployment rate and had created a positive environment for businesses.

Craig criticized Sununu’s approach to New Hampshire’s economy, noting persistently high local property taxes and arguing the state should do more to send money to towns to offset the taxes. Craig also opposed the interest and dividends tax elimination, framing it as a tax that largely affected wealthy residents and vowing to restore it but to target it to higher earners. Ayotte assailed that position, using it to run advertising stating that Craig would raise taxes.

And both candidates agreed the housing crisis is a top issue and produced lengthy policies for how to address it. Ayotte focused many of her proposals on streamlining the state approval process from agencies such as the Department of Transportation and the Department of Environmental Services, pledging to reduce the wait time to 60 days. Craig’s plan emphasized state investments in affordable housing and included proposed state laws to reduce the requirements local land use boards can impose on new developments. 

The two followed familiar partisan divisions around education policy. Craig called for an increase in state funding of schools, citing two school funding lawsuits pending before the Supreme Court, and disavowing the recently created education freedom account program, which allows low-income families to use state education dollars toward private school and home school expenses. Ayotte endorsed that program, and voiced disagreement with an order by Rockingham County Superior Court for the state to nearly double its per pupil education spending to meet its constitutional requirements.

And while Craig vowed to boost New Hampshire’s efforts to transition its energy grid to include more renewable sources, such as offshore wind and solar developments, Ayotte expressed more caution. Ayotte said the state should adopt an “all of the above” approach to energy but emphasized the need for the state to continue to ensure a supply of natural gas and other fossil fuels in order to lower rate costs.

The consistent attack ads made Manchester – and its legacy – a central player in Ayotte’s campaign, and raised some criticism among business owners that the effort was painting the city in a poor light.

But Manchester Mayor Jay Ruais, a Republican who succeeded Craig in the Queen City, supported Ayotte, rejecting that argument. He said Ayotte’s advertising about the city was meant to criticize Craig’s leadership, not the people of Manchester themselves.

“I think what Kelly was looking at was the stewardship of the city of Manchester, and here are the things that we know Manchester has the potential to achieve,” he said in an interview Tuesday. “… She was always very clear that Manchester is an incredible place. It’s a very special place to raise your family, to send your kids to school.”

Craig, for her part, paid tribute to Manchester in her final speech 

“I love Manchester,” Craig said, “and I want to thank all of you again, all of you for working to make sure that we make New Hampshire a stronger place.”

The victory speech capped several hours of electric energy in the Artisan Hotel in Salem, as Republican representatives, officials, and voters packed a ballroom, cheering loudly whenever the WMUR election broadcast revealed a state that had voted for Trump.

When Ayotte took the stage, she led the crowd in a happy birthday song for Sununu, who turned 50 Tuesday. And she paid tribute to Sununu’s help in her election.

But, she added: “We’re not going to be content to rest on the successes of Gov. Sununu and what he has brought to our state,” she said. 

“… Together, we will work to tackle this housing crisis. Together, we will work to strengthen our mental health system. Together, we will work to make sure that New Hampshire remains a great place to raise a family, we’ll back up our teachers, and we’ll continue to improve education for all of our students.”