This commentary is by Art Woolf. He is an associate professor emeritus at UVM, where he taught economics for 39 years. He served as the state economist for Gov. Madeleine Kunin from 1988 to 1991.
A thriving, prosperous state is a goal that all Vermonters can agree to. That goal is easier to achieve with a growing population.
More people means a larger selection of workers for businesses, government and nonprofits. It means more people earning incomes, supporting local businesses and paying taxes to support government programs — many of which serve the neediest of our citizens. A growing economy means more opportunities for us and our children.
It is important, therefore, to know whether, and by how much, our population is growing. In the first two decades of the 21st century, Vermont’s population has been growing at less than half the national rate and we were in the bottom 10 states in terms of population growth. That’s very different from Vermont’s experience at the end of the 20th century, when Vermont’s growth was in step with the national experience.
What about now? The U.S. census counts the nation’s population every 10 years, and in the intervening years we have only population estimates, and those are problematic. A recent study by the Vermont treasurer’s office reports that 7,500 more people moved into Vermont than out in 2023. But that estimate, based on U.S. census data, relies on a sample of only about 7,200 households out of 340,000 total households in the state.
READ MORE
A more recent census estimate based on more comprehensive data, found that 511 more people moved out of Vermont than moved in during 2024. And that census estimate found that since 2020 only 6,160 more people moved into Vermont than left the state — less than the total number the treasurer’s office reports moving here in just one year.
Given Vermont’s total population is just under 650,000, that’s a drop in the bucket. And the larger picture is even more problematic. Over the past 10 years, Vermont has experienced more deaths than births each year. Since 2020, deaths have outnumbered births by 6,800, erasing any population gain from people moving here from other states.
As the baby boom generation ages, the number of deaths will continue to increase. At the same time, the number of women in their prime childbearing years will fall, which means the number of births will also continue to decline. That will be a source of population decline.
A healthy economy means people want to live here and can afford to live here. A growing population is both a reflection of that and a source of our prosperity. One only has to look at towns and cities across the country to see the effects of a stagnant population, and contrast that to the dynamism in areas that are growing.
We should not be complacent about our current lack of growth, and we should not base policies on a misinterpretation of what the actual population numbers are or what they are telling us.
Read the story on VTDigger here: Art Woolf: Why Vermont’s population growth matters.