Photo by Gage Skidmore | Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0
Lawmakers return to the Capitol today with fresh and familiar faces after a tense election cycle. For both Republicans, who control both chambers of the Legislature and expanded their majorities in November, the laser focus is on the 2026 elections as they seek to wrest control of the executive branch from Democrats.
Their sights are set on defeating Gov. Katie Hobbs, who narrowly won the governorship in 2022 by defeating Kari Lake, marking the first time since Janet Napolitano in the early 2000s that Democrats controlled the Governor’s Office. November’s elections dashed the hopes of Hobbs and the Arizona Democratic Party when an aggressive gambit to win control of the legislature for the first time since the 1960s resulted in Republicans gaining two seats in the Arizona House and an additional seat in the Senate.
The result is likely to be an emboldened GOP majority and increased partisanship in a legislature that has grown increasingly partisan over the past decade and has has a growing number of “celebrity” lawmakers who at times seem more interested in boosting their national profiles than finding solutions to problems facing Arizonans.
Lawmakers in both parties have said that they’re already courting donors for the midterm elections, and President-election Donald Trump has already endorsed a candidate for the 2026 governor’s race.
“I think it is unfortunate that we are not even three months out from the election and people are already thinking about the next one,” Arizona House Democratic Leader Oscar De Los Santos told the Arizona Mirror, adding that he hopes his colleagues will focus on policy making over campaigning.
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Republican lawmakers have been clashing with Gov. Katie Hobbs since she became governor in 2023. The result has been record numbers of vetoed bills and legal battles with the GOP-controlled Legislature for subjecting her nominees to lead state agencies to intense political questioning and ultimately refusing to confirm many of them.
Hobbs’ veto pen led legislative Republicans to refer a large number of resolutions to the ballot in 2024, most of which failed to garner support from voters.
Those battles are sure to continue in 2025, with lawmakers signaling their intention to continue the Committee on Director Nominations, created in 2023 to grill Hobbs’ picks to lead state agencies, which is helmed by far-right Arizona Freedom Caucus Chairman Sen. Jake Hoffman.
Hoffman did not respond to the Arizona Mirror’s request for comment on the priorities of the Arizona Freedom Caucus in this session.
“I do think that there is not going to be a lot of joining hands and singing in unison, but, obviously, the voters did speak pretty loud and clear and said that immigration and the economy are top of mind,” Republican political consultant Barrett Marson told the Mirror.
Marson pointed to Hobbs’ recent endorsement of the Laken Riley Act as a signal that she, as well as some other Democrats like U.S. Sens. Rueben Gallego and Mark Kelly, will likely shift to the right on issues like immigration.
Hobbs has also indicated her possible cooperation with Trump on immigration issues, and has continued deployments of the Arizona National Guard to the southern border.
Hobbs and other Democratic leaders’ support of the Laken Riley Act has caused concern among some within their own party.
“I was incredibly disappointed to see Arizona Democratic leaders support an anti-immigrant and truly unconstitutional bill,” Sen. Analise Ortiz, D-Phoenix, told the Mirror.
Ortiz represents a largely Latino district and said that the amped up anti-immigrant rhetoric has created fear among her constituents. She also pointed to provisions in the Laken Riley Act that have led some critics to call it unconstitutional for eroding constitutional due process protections.
While Ortiz does see that her colleagues could shift to the right due to the results of the 2024 election, she said she anticipates that she and others will hold their feet to the fire on certain issues like immigration.
Republicans made major gains nationally and locally, but De Los Santos emphasized that Democrats still represent nearly half the state and said that’s a reflection of the “independent minds” of Arizona voters.
De Los Santos also said that Democrats are willing to work with Republicans on bipartisan solutions to immigration issues like drug interdiction policy, cracking down on fentanyl and providing additional resources to border communities.
“There is going to be an effort for some of these leaders to put their money where their mouth is and fund some border-related activities,” Marson said of Hobbs and the Legislature. In November, Arizona voters passed Proposition 314, which makes it a state crime for migrants to cross the southern border and empowers local police officers to arrest them.
The proposition is in a state of limbo as a similar law in Texas undergoes court challenges.
“I think there is a lack of appreciation for the frustration of the electorate with crime and immigration,” Republican lobbyist Marcus Dell’Artino said, adding that he believes policymakers will prioritize those issues this session.
But some of the people who will be charged with enforcing Prop. 314 are worried about logistics.
“With us, it is one of those unfunded mandates and how much is it going to cost? Nobody knows,” Arizona State Troopers Association President Jeff Hawkins told the Mirror. “Do we have the tools in place or infrastructure in place to accomplish what they want?”
Hawkins said that the Arizona Department of Public Safety is counting on lawmakers this session to help them with their staffing woes, which are so dire that 13 of the state’s 15 counties don’t have a trooper on the road past midnight. The agency is now also looking at how it will enforce the new immigration law while understaffed, with hopes that lawmakers will take note.
Texas has planned to invest $10 billion into its similar immigration enforcement program named Operation Lone Star, which also includes cooperative agreements with other state public safety agencies, something missing from Arizona’s Prop. 314, which included no extra funding — potentially in violation of Arizona’s constitution.
Hawkins said he is hopeful about the conversations he’s had with lawmakers and the governor’s office to help remedy the situation and hopes to see those issues addressed in the upcoming session.
But immigration won’t be the only issue that Hobbs and Republicans are likely to clash on.
“One of my biggest predictions that no one is going to be talking about is going to come on election reform,” Dell’Artino said. “I think that they will reach some sort of compromise. The Democratic caucus will probably vote against it and (Hobbs) will probably sign it and it will highlight the differences between, one, being a legislator and, two, being a governor and, of course, highlight that she is going to be running in a statewide race.”
Republicans have already signaled that election reforms, often fueled by false claims of widespread voter fraud, are a major part of their platform this year. Hobbs previously stated that any election reform measures that make it harder to vote would meet her veto pen, something Democratic lawmakers echoed.
“The Republicans have made it very clear that they want to push through this Florida model to expedite election results,” Ortiz said. “However, that bill would reduce voter access, and that is a hard line in the sand for Democrats.”
De Los Santos agreed, adding that if Republicans have ideas that do not disenfranchise voters his caucus will hear them out.
“We’ll wait and see what the Republicans put forward and if there is something smart and sensible, we will come to the table,” De Los Santos said, adding that the Florida election model is something they won’t support.
But compromise will likely be the key term heard throughout the session.
With Hobbs facing a likely more united and emboldened Republican caucus and a midterm election in 2026 , Dell’Artino and Marson both said they believe that it will lead Hobbs to make some compromises.
Additionally, several legislators have already signaled their intention to run for statewide office, including the top Senate Republican readying a bid for attorney general, so Dell’Artino expects lawmakers to use the session to try to highlight where they believe Hobbs and AG Kris Mayes are lacking to boost their own campaigns.
A fresh crop of Republican lawmakers also creates a new dynamic for the majority when it comes to consensus on bills and the state budget.
Republicans had previously only held onto the majority by a razor-thin one-vote margin in both chambers, and some of them would hold out on key votes to bargain for certain policy priorities, something Dell’Artino thinks will be much more difficult in the upcoming session.
“I think from that standpoint it will be faster and easier for Republicans to get along,” he said.
The Arizona Freedom Caucus has often butted heads with other Republican lawmakers, leading to clashes over proposals or alliances between with left-leaning lawmakers on issues such as housing.
That bipartisan work on housing and other issues is something Ortiz said she hopes to see continue in 2025.
“I know there is bipartisan appetite to keep those coming,” she said of legislation aimed at increasing the state’s dwindling affordable housing supply. She also sees water policy and criminal justice reform as two areas where lawmakers could find common ground.
Rep. Walt Blackman, R-Snowflake, who has long championed criminal justice reform at the Capitol, will return to the state House this year after unsuccessfully running for Congress in 2022.
But the infighting within the Republican Party, particularly in the House where margins are still tight, could allow Democratic members more opportunities to negotiate, De Los Santos said.
“We are going to be focused on delivering economic relief to the middle class in Arizona,” he said, adding that lowering the cost of things like childcare, prescription drugs and housing will be key issues they intend to see in the budget. De Los Santos said he has been in constant communication with Hobbs’ office and said that childcare will be a priority in her budget as well.
“We are going to be fighting for affordability, affordability, affordability for the working families of Arizona,” he said.
But lawmakers are still likely to send a large number of bills to the governor that they likely know will be dead on arrival.
“I still foresee a significant amount of vetoes. I think Republicans in the Legislature are feeling their oats and they will send her a substantial amount of bills she will veto,” Marson said, adding that Republican lawmakers do not have a “veto-proof” majority to override Hobb.
“I do see compromise on the horizon, but unwilling compromise. Unhappy compromise,” Marson said.
Things like water and Proposition 123 are likely to be the dominant conversations over the coming months, Dell’Artino said but the big fights will come with budget negotiations.
Arizona’s budget is operating at a surplus, according to the most recent reports, a stark contrast to the previous year, when the state saw a looming deficit and 10% cuts to a large number of state agencies.
The shortfall came from the universal expansion of the state’s school voucher program, as well as the implementation of a flat income tax that lost the state millions of dollars in revenue. This year, however, there is more money — which Dell’Artino said could lead to more problems.
“If you think politicians fight a lot when they have to cut a budget, just wait to see what happens when you give them a surplus,” he said.
Ortiz said conversations on budget priorities are already starting.
“I’m very encouraged that those conversations are happening sooner this year than they have in the past couple of years,” she said, adding that they are still waiting on the governor’s budget proposal to truly see where negotiations will be starting.
Marson anticipates that law enforcement organizations will ask lawmakers for bigger budgets after seeing voters prioritize immigration and crime in the last cycle.
“They read the results this year and saw that crime and law enforcement and illegal immigration were the major issues for voters, so I think they’re going to come and say, ‘Look, we are a priority, and you have to treat us as such,’” he said.
Hawkins agreed, and said DPS is likely to prioritize funding for raises for troopers to bring them in line with other law enforcement agencies in the state, in addition to mental health assistance.
“Every year it is rob Peter to pay Paul in some function of this agency,” Hawkins said, noting that 20 troopers cover the entirety of the East Valley, which includes eight freeways. “It’s not a Republican or Democrat issue.”
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