An immigrant family wades through the Rio Grande while crossing from Mexico into the United States on Sept. 30, 2023, in Eagle Pass, Texas. A survey conducted for The Vera Institute found that Democrats could get stronger support from swing voters on immigration and public safety policies that draw a sharper contrast with Republicans. (John Moore | Getty Images)
While Democrats running in November have been outspoken on their differences with Republicans on abortion rights, democracy and some economic issues, some advocates want to see sharper distinctions on issues including immigration and public safety.
“What voters are taking to the ballot box on these issues … are about a desire to prevent crime and to see communities be safer,” said Insha Rahman of the Vera Institute of Justice during an online press conference Friday. Rahman is vice president for advocacy and partnerships for the nonprofit organization, which focuses on the justice system as well as on immigration.
The Vera Institute for Justice and Vera Action, its political advocacy affiliate, and the Wisconsin Working Families Party held the virtual news conference to discuss the issues at the top of the organizations’ agendas in the 2024 election.
“The working class is much more diverse, especially in terms of race, gender and age, than the dominant narrative might imply,” said Corrine Rosen, the Working Families Party’s Wisconsin director.
The organization’s polling has found that “contrary to Conventional wisdom working class voters are to the left of middle and upper class voters on issues of economic justice, public investment, taxing the rich and reining in corporate power.”
In door-to-door canvassing so far this election cycle, the Wisconsin Working Families Party has reached 210,000 homes with plans to exceed 300,000 by Election Day, Rosen said.
“So many working-class families across Wisconsin are facing these same struggles,” she said. “Democrats are just as competitive on key economic issues like the cost of living as Republicans, a fact that we’re seeing echoed in our canvassing efforts on the doors every day.”
Their canvassing has identified strong support for the Democratic ticket, including Presidential candidate Kamala Harris, Sen. Tammy Baldwin and down-ballot candidates, Rosen said.
Poll: Voters open to ‘serious’ safety messages
Insha Rahman, The Vera Institute (Vera Institute photo)
At the same time, however, according to Rahman, polling that Vera Action commissioned this summer suggests that a bloc of voters who could be crucial to the Democrats’ success are open to a stronger, contrasting message on immigration and crime, further differentiating Democratic candidates from the Republicans on those issues.
Vera Action sponsored a poll by Global Strategy Group, a New York polling and messaging firm, that surveyed 800 likely voters in Wisconsin and an additional sample of 250 Milwaukee County voters. The survey broke out various groups, including “swing voters” — people who reported a history of voting for candidates from both major political parties.
On the subject of crime, policing and public safety, the poll found that among those voters, nearly two-thirds — 63% — preferred a “serious about safety approach” to one that emphasized getting “tough on crime.”
The “tough on crime” approach focuses on longer prison sentences for people convicted of violent crimes, increased support for police and maintaining a more restrictive cash bail system.
The “serious about safety” approach emphasizes the broader quality of life, with policies for living wages, affordable housing, more treatment for mental health and drug addiction and getting illegal guns off the street, Rahman said.
In the poll, conducted in July, half of all voters said they heard more from Republicans on crime and safety. That was twice the number of voters who said they heard more from Democrats on the subject.
Rahman said Wisconsin political spending data Vera Action has tracked in the current election cycle shows Republicans have put $67.3 million into ads that focus on crime or immigration, compared with $19.1 million that Democrats have spent on those subjects.
Contrasting messages
The poll compared voters’ views of advertising scripts attacking Democrats as soft on crime and emphasizing Republican “tough on crime” policies.
Half of those polled heard a Democratic response that echoed the “tough” message with some additional nuance. The other half heard a Democratic response that focused instead on the broader “serious about safety” message.
All voters in the poll were divided about equally in favoring the original Republican attack and either the Democratic “tough” or “safety” messages. Voters of color and suburban voters, however, were more receptive to the Democratic “serious about safety” message than either the “tough” message or the original GOP attack.
Voters of color who heard the Democratic “tough” response favored it by 48% to 36% for the original attack ad. But voters of color who heard the Democratic “safety” message favored it over the original attack 64% to 29%.
Suburban voters in the survey also favored both Democratic messages over the attack ad: 50% for the “tough” response to 43% for the attack, and 52% for the “safety” message to 44% for the attack.
Swing voters “only hear a lot of tough-on-crime rhetoric,” Rahman said. “They don’t hear a lot of the safety message — but when they do they strongly favor it.”
She suggested the poll findings offer Democrats an opportunity to cultivate more support from both groups with the “safety” messaging.
“It really says something about where voters are, which is very different from where the political rhetoric, the media rhetoric this cycle is on the issue of crime,” Rahman said.
Immigration attitudes
The poll also tested alternative responses to a hypothetical Republican attack ad on immigration that focused on crime and drug trafficking and “feeding and clothing illegals.”
The Democratic “tough” response avoided the hostile language but focused on increasing border security and stopping “the influx of migrants,” depicting them as “taking up resources” and calling for government and community help so that migrants can “contribute to our communities.”
The Democratic “serious” response focused on border security to stop drugs, but also emphasized a “pathway to citizenship” for migrants already in the country and funding resources such as schools, good paying jobs, health care and affordable housing to “make life safer, more stable, and secure for all of us.”
Among all voters, the attack ad was favored by 53% to 41% for the Democratic “tough” message. They also favored the attack ad over the Democratic “serious” message, but by a narrower margin: 51% to 45%.
Swing voters in the sample were more skeptical of the GOP language. They favored even the “tough” Democratic response 49% to 34% over the attack. But that group favored the “serious” message over the attack by 56% to 35%.
Voters of color in the sample favored the Republican attack message, with 50% choosing that and 42% favoring the “tough” Democratic response. But those who heard the “serious” Democratic message had the opposite reaction — favoring it by 51% to 43% for the attack.
The survey findings “complicate the conventional political wisdom about what voters make of crime and how all the tough on crime rhetoric will actually land,” Rahman said — especially when “there’s an alternative message of actually being serious about safety.”
Rahman told the Wisconsin Examiner that Vera Action has “spent a lot of time trying to get this data and this guidance in front of candidates” since the poll was completed.
“There is a very strong pull for Democrats to just not talk about crime or immigration at all, because they believe they can’t win on the issues,” Rahman said — leading candidates to focus back on topics such as reproductive rights and democracy.
“I think there’s a fear of doing something that is not usually done, which is really actually creating a contrast between your opponent on this issue, where historically you think you have a deficit.”
Rahman said the organization plans further research after the election, including exit surveys, and will share that with elected leaders as well.
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