A satellite view of the Red Dog mine complex in Northwest Alaska. (Maps data: Google, Airbus, CNES/Airbus, Landsat/Copernicus, Maxar Technologies)
Canadian officials have been scrambling in recent weeks to convince President Donald Trump to abandon his threat of sweeping tariffs on Canadian imports.
One point of leverage? Alaska’s Red Dog mine.
Red Dog — a huge open-pit operation in Northwest Alaska — is the largest zinc mine in the world, and a major U.S. source of both zinc and a little-known but essential byproduct, germanium.
But before those materials wind up in American products, they get refined in Canada, then sent back to the U.S.
Trump’s 25% across-the-board tariff, which is set to go into effect on Saturday, could apply to those zinc and germanium imports, as well as a slew of other mine products and many other goods flowing south from Canada.
“The cross-border nature of that supply chain means that it will be heavily impacted,” said Gracelin Baskaran, a mining economist who directs a critical minerals security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, D.C.
Teck Resources, the Vancouver-based multinational company that operates Red Dog, is Canada’s only producer of germanium, according to a corporate spokesperson.
Germanium is one of dozens of minerals that U.S. officials have labeled as “critical” to national security and the economy. The metalloid is used in fiber optics, computer chips, and night-vision equipment.
Some analysts have warned that a trade war with Canada could hurt efforts to bolster a domestic mineral supply chain in the midst of another trade war, with China.
Historically, the U.S. has depended on China for germanium and other minerals used in electronics, weapons, and energy infrastructure. But that country banned exports of germanium and two other minerals to the United States in December.
“The reality is, we don’t have a rich set of alternate supply sources,” said Baskaran.
Red Dog is one of two mines in the U.S. that produce germanium, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The other, in Tennessee, refines its concentrate at a nearby zinc smelter. In Utah and Oklahoma, companies also produce germanium through recycling.
Nearly all of the germanium exported by Canada — some 89% in 2022 — goes to the United States. Canadian leaders have cited the importance of that supply as a buffer against Trump’s tariff threat.
“One of the key advantages we have in this fight is materials the Americans can’t get anywhere else,” British Columbia Premier David Eby said at a mining conference in Vancouver earlier this month. He specifically cited Teck’s germanium.
Canada exported more than $2 billion of zinc products to the U.S. in 2022, according to Canadian government figures.
A Teck spokesperson would not say exactly how much zinc and germanium the company ships from its Canadian smelter to customers in the U.S.
Some 30% of the zinc from Red Dog is processed at Teck’s huge smelting operation in the mountain town of Trail, British Columbia, according to a 2019 U.S. Geological Survey report. The company sends the rest to Asia and Europe.
“We continue to closely monitor the issue and are sharing information with governments in Canada and the U.S. about our products and their importance to the economy and security of both nations,” Dale Steeves, a Teck spokesperson, said in an email.
He said the company is “examining options and market support” for increasing germanium production.
Baskaran, the think tank analyst, said a tariff on mining products from Canada likely would cause prices to rise for U.S. customers. “It would just be inflationary,” she added.
If Trump follows through on his threat, Canadian leaders have warned that they could impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports.
If that happens, minerals from Red Dog could be subjected to two fees on their way down the supply chain: once when the zinc and germanium cross into Canada from Alaska, and again when products refined in Canada come back to the United States.
Though the added costs likely would fall on customers at the end of the supply chain, Baskaran said a tariff “absolutely” would affect the mining industry. She noted Red Dog is one of many mines that are part of cross-border supply chains. A nickel mine in Michigan, for instance, also sends its minerals to a refinery in Canada, which then sells products back to the U.S.
“The impact of tariffs is felt on the whole supply chain,” Baskaran said.
Red Dog is a linchpin of Northwest Alaska’s economy, and its profits are shared with Alaska Native-owned corporations statewide. The mine sits on land owned by one of those corporations, NANA.
Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, said this week that Canada could avoid tariffs if it takes stronger action to curb the flow of fentanyl, the addictive painkilling drug, across the border. But the president doubled down on his plan on Thursday.
Northern Journal contributor Max Graham can be reached at max@northernjournal.com. He’s interested in any and all mining related stories, as well as introductory meetings with people in and around the industry.
This article was originally published in Northern Journal, a newsletter from Nathaniel Herz. Subscribe at this link.
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