West Virginia Gov. Patrick Morrisey give his inaugural address following his swearing in at the state capitol in Charleston, W.Va., on Monday, Jan. 13, 2025. (Chris Jackson for West Virginia Watch)
The phrase “Lies, damn lies, and statistics” has been around since before most folks knew what statistics were, or did, or meant. The sentiment has lingered for as long as there have been human beings that lie about information to another human being. Which would be since the first ones.
While conveying an immutable and universal truth, the origins of the phrase itself is wrapped in a history of highly suspect lore. The “There are three kinds of lies…” version is often attributed to Mark Twain, who himself attributed it to British politician Benjamin Disraeli, who almost certainly never said it as the first written examples come decades after his death. But a tale told enough over a long period of time tends to stick around, even as math and time combine to slowly show the truth of a thing. Slogans and sayings are powerful like that
Being on the same political team as his predecessor, current West Virginia Gov. Patrick Morrisey isn’t going to pound the podium with his own take on “lies, damn lies, and statistics,” but he has begun to lay the rhetorical groundwork that the previous governor and now-U.S. Sen. Jim Justice’s “rocket ship” of fiscal success might not blaze across the bright future skies as brightly as advertised.
“We’re talking about what we’ve inherited,” Morrisey explained during his first week on the job. “These problems weren’t created overnight… I can tell you that we do believe that there are significant structural problems with the budget, and I’m committed to fixing it.”
Which Justice refutes: “I don’t want to get into a battle with the new governor. I want him to do really great, but with all that being said, it’s almost crazy-talk to tell you the truth,” he commented to WCHS news. “Nobody can figure out where these numbers could come from. I guess you can project anything you want to project.”
Which is true. One can project anything, and they do, especially politicians in governmental roles who want to put the rosiest spin possible on their stewardship of the public till. While the line where “spin” devolves into “lies” is routinely ignored by the pressure of political necessity, the fact remains that two men who were consecutively in charge of the same responsibilities are saying two different things and both cannot be right.
The math portion, while complicated, is the easier part of this opening drama of the Morrisey era to lay out.
Most everyone both in and out of government understand the fiscal issues the state faces, and none of them are new problems. Morrisey highlighted the ongoing habit of using temporary or one-time revenue streams like federal funds to plug ongoing budget needs, the expansion of education spending and the ever-problematic Public Employee Insurance Agency that covers 200,000-plus current and retired state employees.
Both current and former chairs of the Senate Finance Committee agree that there are ways to cover the $400 million hole, and that the different projections and methods moved up a known issue several fiscal years earlier than expected. As Sen. Eric Tarr explained to MetroNews, “having done that overspending, it’s moved it up two years. Now, it’s not as dire as it seems because we also set around quite a bit of reserves here and there to accommodate for when this is going to happen in a couple of years.”
Which brings up the lies, damn lies, and statistics portion of the fun with government numbers show.
As any sales rep or mid level manager who has ever had to face career death by PowerPoint can tell you, making a chart to get numbers to say what you want them to say and make it look pretty is not only possible, but preferred. Give the people you answer to what they want, complete with graphics, in a way that makes good news your fault and failures someone else’s.
Fitting to his large personality, Justice always talks of big successes, rocket ships, huge deals, nothing but up, up, up and have you noticed Babydog’s excitement over the entire thing. “We don’t need to be doom and gloom in West Virginia,” Justice said. “We are Americans. We’re West Virginians. We need just to buckle up and go to work. But there’s so much good happening in West Virginia right now, it’d be hard to turn off the good.”
Which is well and good, and optimism is something West Virginians historically need more of, not less. But Justice managed to successfully kick the can of fiscal accountability, and questions about his own personal business dealings, down the road past his own stint at the state’s helm. More specifically down I-64 from his home in Lewisburg, up I-81, and across I-66 to his new job in Washington, D.C. His sunny public pronouncements were only one side of the Jim Justice experience. The other side was constant stonewalling of the press, public denouncements of any questioning of his dealings as governor or a businessman, and frequent private pressure and machinations to undermine any criticism.
To his credit, Morrisey has already set an early example of holding what was once a normal rhythm of press availability. He’s made a point to mention he will be residing in Charleston at least somewhat regularly, something Justice was often criticized and at one point taken to court over. The current back-and-forth over the $400 million potential deficit comes from his team’s review of state government, showing an interest in the details of government and legislation his predecessor skewed for pronouncements and generalities.
When Morrisey reveals his budget goals and numbers, no doubt the press releases and graphics will show the data the administration wants to show in the way it wants to show it. If he wants to maintain the office he was elected to, politics demands the governor and his team show progress, success and leadership, in chart form and otherwise. The statistics can show whatever they want to, and in his earliest days as governor, Morissey is smartly starting with some honesty of a looming problem, which he then can present himself and his efforts as a solution thereto. Statistics can be good politics like that.
Keeping those statistics on the right side of spin/lies ratio requires the continued use of the press not as a vile enemy but as a conduit to present the governor’s agenda, perspective and plans for the state that elected him. If the governor is serious about his themes of a more fiscally efficient government, that rhetoric needs matching actions of transparency, letting the press do its job of covering state government fiscal and otherwise.
Patrick Morrisey is not Jim Justice, and would be foolish to try and get by on slogans and sayings. Or the canine aesthetics of a beloved if not highly mobile bulldog. His first days in office show that he is aware of it. If his statistics stay on the believable side, he can also contrast himself with his predecessor without saying a bad thing directly about him. When challenges inevitably come, the public already has a baseline of the governor telling them of problems that need solved, not just rocket ships to tomorrowland, and will be more open to his suggestions and solutions. Math and time would treat such actions well. The West Virginia electorate might find it refreshing. Believe it or not, not cooking the books, adjusting the stats or lying in general would be really good politics.
Imagine what a great chart that could make come election time.
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