AVERAGE SPRING TEMPERATURES across Massachusetts have warmed by approximately two and a half degrees Fahrenheit over the past 55 years, according to a new analysis.
Suffolk County, which includes Boston, has seen the highest temperature rise, with an increase of 2.9 degrees, followed closely by Nantucket County at 2.8 degrees, researchers at Climate Central, a nonprofit group of climate scientists and communications experts, have found. Franklin County, Norfolk County, Worcester County, and Middlesex County all warmed by 2.6 degrees – a trend that can lead to an earlier and more intense fire season, contribute to drought, prolong seasonal allergies, and alter the growing season.
Climate Central analyzed monthly temperature data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – the federal agency tasked with predicting and monitoring weather and climate – in the months of March to May from 1970 to 2024 to find the average change in temperature over those 55 years.
“We continue to burn coal and oil and methane gas and put this heat-trapping pollution into the atmosphere,” said Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central. “That is the reason that we’re seeing the temperature shifts both in the wintertime, which is the fastest shrinking season for most of the country, and the springtime, which we’re seeing arrive earlier for most of our locations across the country. All of that ties back to the heat traffic pollution that we put into the atmosphere.”
The Paris Agreement has set a goal of not exceeding a maximum global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius past pre-industrial levels, but last year was the warmest year on record and breached that threshold for the first time. This does not mean that the 1.5-degree warming mark has been permanently crossed, but this is a warning sign, Winkley added.
Massachusetts experienced a particularly severe fire season last fall, with more acres burning in October and November than in the two years prior. Drought conditions, worsened by higher temperatures, have made it easier for wildfires to ignite and spread, experts say.
David Celino, chief fire warden at the Department of Conservation and Recreation, said that the data on the warming of the spring season corresponds exactly with the experience of fire managers across the northeast. As warmer temperatures melt snow earlier, surface vegetation – leaves, pine needles, and grasses dry out faster, leaving them more susceptible to burning.
“It’s not surprising and it maps so well,” said Celino. “There’s a common feeling that our spring fire is now starting earlier in March than it traditionally used to, and part of that reason is going into spring with warmer temperatures or sort of warmer environment.”
This month, fires have been reported in areas like the Cape Cod region where the snowpack has melted, according to Celino.
When the “snowpack” melts faster than the ground thaws, the water from the snow is less likely to be absorbed into groundwater or go into nearby bodies of water which in turn leads to fewer water stores for later in the year.
“Higher temperatures contribute significantly to drought because the water that falls evaporates more quickly,” said Julia Blatt, executive director of Mass Rivers Alliance. “So then, you’ve got dry soils and dry streams, and when there is rainfall, less of the water makes it into streams or groundwater or lakes or ponds.”
Some cities and states in the country have experienced much more dramatic warming with average spring temperatures jumping 6.8 degrees in Reno, Nevada, 6.4 degrees in El Paso, Texas, and 6.1 degrees in Tucson, Arizona.
Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center on Cape Cod, said that due to climate change, there is bound to be “more volatility and more surprises” when it comes to extreme weather events across the globe.
“This is still very alarming,” said Francis. “It’s not unexpected. It’s not a surprise. But it really should be ringing alarm bells in everybody’s heads more than it is. Even though the temperature or change seems really small, we’re already seeing the impacts of this warming happen across the globe and in very different ways but all very devastating to the people who live in those communities that are affected.”
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