U.S. Sen. Gary Peters’ (D-Bloomfield Twp.) decision to not seek reelection has left Michigan Democrats to defend an open Senate seat for two straight election cycles. (Photo by Andrew Roth/Michigan Advance)
While the election for Michigan’s next open U.S. Senate seat is almost two years away – and there are yet no announced candidates – it’s already being judged as a toss-up race.
That’s the assessment of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political analysis newsletter run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
The seat, currently held by Sen. Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Twp.), came into play when Peters announced in January that he would not seek another term. His decision came less than three months after a tight win for the state’s other Senate seat by Democrat Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly), who defeated former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers (R-White Lake) by less than four-tenths of a percentage point.
“In a midterm with a Republican in the White House, Democrats should win a Senate race in Michigan. But there’s enough uncertainty that we thought a Toss-up rating was merited to start this contest,” stated the analysis, which was written by the newsletter’s Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman.
Kondik and Coleman note that last November’s slim loss by Rogers, who has hinted at another run in 2026, represented the best showing in a U.S. Senate race by Republicans in Michigan since 1994, when Spencer Abraham was elected and served a single term as the state’s last Republican Senator.
“Rogers’s entrance into the race would be a good development for Republicans, although he may not get a clear primary field,” they wrote.
Another potential GOP candidate is U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Twp.), who made two unsuccessful runs for U.S. Senate before winning election in 2022 to the U.S. House.
On the Democratic side, Joe Biden’s former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has said he is considering a run. Buttigieg became a resident of Traverse City, the hometown of his husband Chasten, several years ago after growing up in Indiana and serving as the mayor of South Bend.
The newsletter points out that Democrats had success using the “carpetbagger” label against Rogers, who grew up in Michigan but had moved to Florida, and if Buttigieg were the nominee, Democrats could risk giving Republicans a similar opening.
They also noted an EPIC-MRA poll last week which gave Rogers a 47% to 41% lead over Buttigieg, although 12% remained undecided.
“While early polling is not always predictive, we’re watching to see if any potential ‘Stop Buttigieg’ movement appears among Michigan Democrats,” said Kondik and Coleman.
They say other headwinds to a Buttigieg candidacy include state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), who is also thought to be preparing a run for the seat and is “known as a strong fundraiser,” as well as his ability to make a broad appeal to Michigan Democrats.
“We do think Buttigieg, despite his appeal to college-educated Democrats and Never Trumpers, has a lot to prove as a Senate candidate, particularly in a state where Black turnout is so crucial to Democrats,” they wrote. “It is reasonable to wonder how Buttigieg, who never gained traction with Black voters during his 2020 presidential primary run, would motivate that crucial bloc.”
Additionally, term-limited state Attorney General Dana Nessel, who has won two statewide elections, is another possibility for Democrats.
Whoever the candidate for Democrats, Peters’ planned retirement means they will have to defend an open Senate seat for two straight election cycles, although they’ll do so in 2026 without President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket.
Regardless, Coleman previously concluded that the 2026 race was “likelier to start in Leans Democratic prior to Peters’s retirement”.