Marist poll suggests Ohio voters may be considering splitting their ticket in November

Donald Trump (Photo Joe Raedle/Getty Images) and President Joe Biden (Alex Wong/Getty Images.)

A new Marist poll suggests Ohio voters may split their ticket in this November’s election. Former President Donald Trump holds a seven-point advantage over President Joe Biden in the presidential race, according to the survey. That’s not far off from the eight-point victories Trump secured in Ohio in 2016 and 2020. But in the Senate race, Trump’s favored candidate, Republican Bernie Moreno, trails Ohio Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown by five points.

Marist pollsters surveyed 1,259 Ohioans between June 3 and June 6 with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%. As the sample is whittled to registered voters (1,137) and those definitely planning to vote (987), the margin of error rises to 3.6% and 3.8% respectively.

One additional grain of salt: many pollsters, Marist among them, have had a tough time recently predicting outcomes in Ohio. In March’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, an apparent late surge for state Sen. Matt Dolan proved illusory, as Moreno didn’t just win the nomination, he cruised to a 17-point victory and even won a majority in a three-way race.

Ohio’s U.S. Senate race is set: Republican Bernie Moreno will face U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown

Polling in 2022 correctly identified the likelihood of voters to split their ticket, but still underestimated how well Republicans would perform. And in 2018 — the last time Brown was on the ballot — most polls showed Brown winning, but many overshot the eventual 7-point margin of victory.

Presidential takeaways

After a strong showing in the past two cycles, many race watchers put Trump down as the favorite in Ohio. Marist’s topline results reiterate that idea, and the crosstabs underline it furiously.

In 2020, Biden and Trump split independent voters down the middle. Now they break for Trump by six points. That’s still within in the margin of error, but among those voters who dislike both major party candidates — the so-called double haters — Trump outperforms Biden by 13 points. Voters under the age of 35 break for Trump, as well, with 12% supporting Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Almost 6 in 10 voters believe they personally were doing better during the Trump administration and that the country as a whole was doing better with Trump at the helm. Notably, 13 or 14% of those respondents were Democrats. Among the share who said things have been better under the Biden administration, 6% were Republicans.

When it comes to which candidate performs better on the issues, Trump trounces Biden on every issue but abortion. A 48% plurality see Biden as offering a better approach for abortion, but Trump is right behind him at 47%. Meanwhile, about 6 in 10 believe Trump would do better running the economy or managing immigration, and a 55% majority believe Trump would do a better job representing the country on the world stage.

The January 6 riot notwithstanding, a slim 51% majority believe Trump would do a better job preserving democracy.

And what little good news President Biden can find is soured by losses elsewhere. Pollsters note Biden has made inroads among white voters cutting Trump’s 21-point advantage there in 2020 to just 14 points in the current poll. At the same time, Biden’s 32-point advantage among Black voters is dramatically lower than the 83-point edge he got in the last election.

U.S. Senate takeaways

Still, perhaps most notable in the survey is the share of voters prepared to vote for a Republican presidential candidate and a Democratic U.S. Senate candidate.

“In a departure from national voting patterns from 2016 and 2020, Ohio voters are now poised to split their tickets between president and senate,” Marist Institute for Public Opinion Director Lee Miringoff said in a press release. “The Buckeye State’s electoral votes are likely to go to Trump while Ohioans are prepared to return Democrat Brown to the U.S. Senate.”

Marist pollsters found 50% support incumbent U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown or they’re leaning that way. Republican Bernie Moreno, an entrepreneur from Cleveland, landed at 45%, which is within the poll’s margin of error. Of those who plan to vote for Brown, 10% are backing Donald Trump for president. Just 2% of those supporting Moreno plan to vote for Biden.

Brown holds a strong advantage among independent voters according to Marist’s survey, with 53% backing the incumbent compared to just 37% supporting Moreno.

Still the survey may point to opportunities for Moreno. When it comes to favorability, roughly a third of voters dislike Brown or Moreno respectively. But after three terms in the U.S. Senate most people have an opinion about Brown — 43% of voters like him while about a quarter have no opinion. For Moreno, that’s flipped; a little more than a quarter of voters like him, but 39% have either never heard of him or have no opinion.

Brown’s campaign declined to comment on the poll. But in a written statement, Moreno’s campaign spokeswoman Reagan McCarthy highlighted the difference in voters’ recognition of the candidates.

“Sherrod Brown has been in public office since Richard Nixon was president and unlike Bernie has near universal name ID,” she said, “but as Ohioans begin to tune into the race this fall, that name ID advantage will almost certainly recede.”

Follow OCJ Reporter Nick Evans on Twitter.

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