Survey: More Idahoans think the state is on the right track. But disagree on some policy ideas.

The Boise State University campus on March 20, 2021. (Otto Kitsinger for Idaho Capital Sun)

For the first time in six years, more Idahoans — nearly half — believe the state is on track, according to the annual Boise State University Idaho Public Policy Survey.

And hope for Idaho’s economic conditions to improve also rose, up to almost 44% this year.

Asked similar questions last year, Idahoans painted a different picture; almost 43% of Idahoans said they felt the state was on the wrong track, and 36% said they thought Idaho’s economic condition would worsen. 

But beyond the optimism, results from the survey released Friday suggest that Idahoans don’t widely agree with some policies being considered, or already approved, by the Idaho Legislature — which is looking to allow tax funds to support private and religious education and has refused to enact more exceptions Idaho’s near-total abortion bans.

About 53% of Idahoans oppose  — including 37% of respondents who strongly oppose — allowing tax dollars to pay for private or religious education. But most, 52%, of Republicans support that, compared to 36% of Independents and 12% of Democrats who supported it. 

That is likely to be one of the most contentious policy debates in the Legislature this year. 

Most — 55% — of Idahoans say they favor allowing abortions through at least the first trimester of pregnancy, while 38% say they believe abortion should be allowed through fetal viability. 

Here’s Idahoans’ top priorities for the Idaho Legislature to address:

• Education remains Idahoans top priority for the Idaho Legislature to address for the 10th consecutive year, with support rising by six points to 79% this year from last year. 
• Jobs and the economy came in a close second, with 71%, followed by health care (69%) as the third; housing (64%) as the fourth, and taxes (60%) as the fifth. The environment (54%) came in sixth, and transportation (42%) came in seventh. 

Here’s Idahoans’ top priorities for the Idaho Legislature to address in the state’s budget: 

• 1st place: Workforce and affordable housing (32%); 
• 2nd place: Support for K-12 education funding (28%);
• 3rd place: support for tax relief for Idahoans (23%).

But support for many policy positions depended on the details — or how surveyors asked the question.

Asked about abortion access exceptions in Idaho, over 64% of Idahoans say Idaho should at least have exceptions for documented rape cases, incest, non-viable pregnancies and both the life and health of the mother. 

Idaho law doesn’t include a maternal health exception, and state lawmakers appear set to leave Idaho’s abortion bans unchanged while awaiting the results of litigation. 

Instead of asking specifically about how Idahoans feel about Idaho’s abortion ban laws, surveyors asked respondents how they feel about a spectrum of policies that would be more or less restrictive of abortion.

About 49% of Idahoans say Idaho is headed in the right direction, rising from almost 41% reported in last year’s survey. Similarly, a smaller share of Idahoans, 37%, say the state is on the wrong track, down from 43% last year. 

But political party affiliation plays a big role in how Idahoans feel about the state’s direction. 

Around three quarters — 71% — of Republicans in this year’s survey said Idaho is headed in the right direction, while over two thirds — 68% — of Democrats say Idaho is headed on the wrong track. Independents seemed split on Idaho’s track, with 41% saying it was on the right track and 43% saying it was on the wrong one. 

Opinions on some issues differed depending on what political party people affiliate with; how long they lived in the state; race; gender; age; income and other factors, along with how the question was worded. 

When surveyors asked about people’s opinions on support for sending tax dollars to private or religious schools, they said they avoided using the term “school choice.”

That’s partly because that term has many different meanings, Survey Research Director at Boise State’s School of Public Service, Matthew May, said in a presentation in the Idaho State Capitol on Friday. 

For one person, that might mean a tax credit proposal, he explained. But for others, he said, it might mean the ability to home school, send their kids to magnet schools, or an education savings account, or ESA. 

“When you use that terminology, you’re never sure on which one of those definitions the respondent is using,“ May said. “And so we tried to reduce the ambiguity by focusing on what seemed to be the major policy discussion that was likely to occur during this legislative session, which was allowing tax dollars to go towards private and religious education.”

And the details matter, he said.

“There are some other public opinion data out there where, you know, they are not just describing a particular program, but also adding caveats that ‘It won’t hurt public school budgets,’ or, you know, ‘It will be half of what we would otherwise spend,’” May continued. “And so when you put those details, you’re more likely to receive, I think, popular support, because it’s a mitigating factor impacting the underlying issue. But it doesn’t necessarily change their opinion on, kind of, the core concept of tax dollars going for those purposes.”