CA crime policy takes conservative turn

I’m CalMatters politics reporter Yue Stella Yu, subbing for Lynn.

Why do California voters keep electing progressive prosecutors and keep voting them out of office?

That’s the question some criminal justice advocates are asking themselves after the defeats of two progressive district attorneys — Pamela Price in Alameda County and George Gascón in Los Angeles County — this month, California local news fellows Cayla Mihalovich and Joe Garcia report.

It wasn’t unprecedented: In 2022, Chesa Boudin was recalled as San Francisco’s district attorney amid rising crime concerns and a public desire for stricter crime policies — the same concerns that fueled the referendum on Price and Gascón this year. Gascón survived two prior recall attempts, but was ousted by Nathan Hochman, a former prosecutor who vowed to reverse Gascón’s “social experiments.”

Their losses — combined with the overwhelming approval of Proposition 36, a statewide measure to increase some theft and drug penalties — signal a shift from nearly a decade ago, when progressive prosecutors who championed alternative policies to incarceration found success across the nation. But bold reforms are often met with resistance, and in California, voters are allowed to recall elected officials early, leaving them little time to implement any policies before being ousted, some experts say.

Ultimately, district attorneys must recognize what voters need, said Dan Schnur, a University of Southern California professor.

• Schnur: “The best politicians are those who are able to adjust to and address those changes in public opinion. Those who aren’t able to adjust become former elected officials.” 

Read more on the ups and downs of progressive prosecutors from Cayla and Joe.

In other criminal justice news:

A new study this month examined “zero bail” orders — emergency edicts during the COVID-19 pandemic to set the bail amount for most misdemeanors and felonies at zero dollars — on the likelihood of rearrests. 

To catch you up: In April 2020, the state Judicial Council implemented the order to release most suspects immediately upon arrest, in hopes of preventing the virus from spreading in courts and jails. The statewide mandate only lasted two months, and voters rejected ending cash bail in November 2020. But courts in most populous counties adopted similar policies, and until July 2022, most Californians lived in counties with such a policy in place. 

Did that policy lead to more rearrests? Early on in the pandemic, yes, but that spike diminished over time, according to the new analysis by the Public Policy Institute of California. The study found no evidence that rearrests for violent felonies increased after the policy, and lower-level offenders were not more likely to be rearrested for violent felonies. 

Let’s get into some more potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump on California:

The economics of mass deportation: Trump’s promise to conduct the largest deportation operation in American history could cost billions of dollars in economic damage across a wide range of industries, as the state heavily depends on immigrant labor, reports CalMatters’ economy reporter Levi Sumagaysay. 

As of 2022, an estimated 1.8 million to 2.4 million undocumented immigrants lived in California, according to various research groups. They contributed not just their labor but tax dollars: A national study showed undocumented immigrants paying $8.5 billion in local and state taxes in the state in 2022. 

A mass deportation could mean that businesses would have to cut their workforce significantly and spend more to replace the deported with U.S.-born workers, experts say. Just the threat of Trump doing so could scare some undocumented immigrants into hiding, which could result in less earning and spending, they said. Giovanni Peri, professor of international economics at UC Davis said if undocumented immigrants “magically disappear, you’re going to erase 10% of California production.”

Read more on the impact of mass deportation on California’s economy in Levi’s story.

Abortion rules: If Trump follows the agenda laid out in Project 2025, California could lose at least $300 million a year in Medi-Cal funding for reproductive care, such as abortions, contraception and family planning, reports CalMatters investigative reporter Monique O. Madan. The state would also be required to report detailed abortion-related data to the federal government. 

Gov. Gavin Newsom, who called a special legislative session starting next week to “Trump-proof” California, traveled to Washington, D.C., after Election Day to “discuss strategies for safeguarding healthcare access,” said Anthony Cava, a spokesperson for the California Department of Health Care Services. Read more on this issue in Monique’s story.

In the city of Los Angeles, a program has moved hundreds of unhoused people into hotels and then permanent homes. 

But some other cities, including San Francisco, continue sending homeless people out of state, reports CalMatters homelessness reporter Marisa Kendall. 

A few months ago, San Francisco’s outgoing mayor, London Breed, announced that city workers must offer homeless people a free bus or train ticket to somewhere else before offering them any services. In San Jose, a $200,000 relocation program is scheduled to start in February. And social workers in various counties offer such programs on a case by case basis. 

The programs can be a game changer for those hoping to reunite with family members in another city or state, but some advocates say they could be used to force out unhoused people instead of helping them, and that there’s no way to track where they end up after they are bused away. 

• Niki Jones, executive director of the Sacramento Regional Coalition to End Homelessness: “When done in good faith, it can be an important and powerful intervention.”

Read more on the busing of homeless people in Marisa’s story. 

A destructive species of mussel has invaded California’s Delta despite state inspections of ships. Find out what went wrong from CalMatters environment reporter Alastair Bland.