An election observer monitors two poll workers processing absentee ballots in the Milwaukee Election Commission warehouse on Aug. 13. Photo by Matt Vasilogambros/Stateline.
Welcome to The Topline, a weekly roundup of the big numbers driving the Minnesota news cycle, as well as the smaller ones that you might have missed. This week: A brief history of Minnesota legislative recounts; the vanishing Trump-Klobuchar county; layoffs in Thief River; and the effect of air pollution on car accidents.
Minnesota recounts virtually never change election outcomes
Two Minnesota House races are headed toward recounts in the coming weeks. In District 54A, provisional counts show DFL Rep. Brad Tabke with a 14-vote lead over GOP opponent Aaron Paul. And in 14B, DFL incumbent Dan Wolgamott is ahead of Republican challenger Sue Ek by 191 votes.
But the Minnesota Legislative Reference Library’s data on previous recounts shows that even a 14-vote margin is unlikely to be overturned.
The library has records of 96 legislative recounts going back to 1849, and says the list is likely incomplete.
Recent years’ recounts typically confirm the provisional counts, with no changes. When vote totals do shift, the number is usually in the single-digit range.
While the library doesn’t have precise numbers for every single contest, the most recent election in which the tally changed by more than 14 votes (the margin in the Tabke-Paul race) happened in 2002, when a recount added 26 votes to Republican Raymond Cox’s winning margin.
To find an election with initial results overturned by a recount you have to go back to 1986, when Carl Stich was initially declared victor over independent Republican Bernard Omann by 6 votes. The recount reversed that call, with a final margin of 48 votes in Omann’s favor.
Minnesota switched to all-electronic vote counting in 2006. Since then, recounts have typically only shifted totals in single-digit amounts, none of which have been enough to change the outcome of a race.
The vanishing Trump-Klobuchar county
A Star Tribune analysis recently found that while 57 of Minnesota’s 87 counties split their Senate and presidential votes in 2012, this year that number shrunk to just 12. The findings suggest “the gradual disappearance of the moderate, bipartisan voter,” analyst Bryan Brussee writes.
Between 2018 and 2024 alone, 30 counties switched from split-ticket to party-line support in their presidential and Senate contests, despite the presence of an unusually unqualified Republican candidate facing Klobuchar this year. The numbers suggest that had Republicans nominated a more traditional challenger, those numbers would have shifted even further.
Arctic Cat lays off dozens, temporarily shuts down production in Thief River Falls
Snowmobile manufacturer Arctic Cat is laying off dozens of employees at its Thief River Falls location.
“In addition, we will pause production at our Thief River Falls facility after production of our model-year 2025 snowmobile lineup is completed,” parent company Textron wrote in a letter to dealers that circulated last week. “We expect to resume production in Q1 2025.”
The company cites “difficult business conditions facing Arctic Cat and the greater powersports industry.” Last year, Japanese competitor Yamaha announced it would be getting out of the snowmobile market in 2025. A continent-wide lack of snow during the 2023-2024 season certainly didn’t help things, and long term winter warming trends aren’t favorable either.
The layoffs could be especially challenging for Thief River Falls because the community was already facing difficulties funding its public schools following years of declining enrollment.
Air pollution increases car crashes
A provisional, but noteworthy finding: Even small increases in fine particle pollution, like wildfire smoke that has swept through parts of the upper Midwest in recent years, significantly raise the odds of fatal car crashes, according to a working paper by economist Irina Firsova with the University of California.
In addition to long-term health impacts, fine particle pollution has been shown to cause cognitive impairment in the short term. At highway speeds, even a little bit of impairment can be deadly.
“Immediate exposure may be especially detrimental in high-risk situations, such as those requiring quick reflexes and real-time decision-making,” Firsova writes.
Reducing that pollution by even a modest amount could save hundreds of lives annually, reduce non-fatal accidents, and potentially save billions of dollars.