Voters at the Rocky Hill Volunteer Fire Department in Edmonson County were greeted by a unifying message hand colored on the white board, Nov. 5, 2024. (Kentucky Lantern photo by Austin Anthony)
Does Kentucky have a moderate majority that could be harnessed to pull the state’s politics back from the far right? Maybe.
The defeat of Amendment 2, which would have changed Kentucky’s Constitution to allow state funds to go to private schools, makes it three straight years that this very Republican-leaning state has voted in a more liberal direction in a high-profile contest. Two years ago, an amendment to definitively declare the state’s Constitution does not include the right to an abortion was defeated. Last year, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection.
The political map for the first two victories was similar. The more liberal position (for abortion rights, for Beshear) won overwhelmingly in Louisville and Lexington, won narrowly in the suburbs and exurbs outside of Cincinnati and received 30% or more of the vote even in the state’s most conservative areas. The pro abortion-rights side won 52% of the statewide vote in 2022; Beshear won 53% in 2023.
The school vouchers provision was more decisively defeated. More than 65% of Kentuckians voted it down. A majority rejected it in all 120 of the state’s counties.
Those were unusual victories. In basically every other statewide race in Kentucky, Democratic candidates have been crushed, usually stuck at around 40% of the vote. Vice President Kamala Harris did even worse, winning only 34 percent of the vote here. This remains a clearly Republican state.
But those three successful liberal campaigns point to a way forward for Kentuckians like me who are frustrated with the increasingly right-wing politics of the state legislature and officials such as U.S. Sen. Rand Paul. First, all three campaigns were fairly nonpartisan. I suspect many Kentucky voters think of themselves as Republicans and more importantly, very much NOT DEMOCRATS OR LIBERALS. So the ballot measures on abortion and school vouchers allowed Kentucky Republicans/non-Democrats to back a more liberal position without voting for a Democratic politician.
Similarly, Beshear is obviously a Democrat, but he’s really a Beshear. The governor and his father Steve have a political brand somewhat separate from the official party as pragmatic nice guys. In his gubernatorial campaigns, Andy Beshear hasn’t explicitly distanced himself from fellow Democrats running for other offices, but he has run fairly individualized campaigns. So in both 2019 and 2023, many voters in the state backed Beshear but also Republicans in other races.
Secondly, in all three cases, the liberal side spent millions of dollars on TV commercials and get-out-the-vote efforts, making sure conservatives didn’t have a huge messaging advantage.
Thirdly, all three campaigns argued their stance was common sense, as opposed to framing the debate in more ideological terms.
And this approach isn’t just working in Kentucky but also in other red states. In one of Nebraska’s U.S. Senate races this year, a mechanic named Dan Osborn took Democratic positions on many positions (particularly his support for unions) but ran as an independent instead of a Democrat and distanced himself from the official party. He lost by only 8 percentage points, compared to Harris’s 22-point loss and the 26-point loss of a Democratic candidate who was running for Nebraska’s other U.S. Senate seat.
Ballot initiatives to expand Medicaid, raise the minimum wage, mandate workers get paid sick leave, protect abortion rights and legalize marijuana are passing in Republican-dominated states across the country.
What these results both in Kentucky and nationwide suggest is that there are many voters who support Republican candidates but not the agenda of Republican legislators and governors. There may be a moderate majority of Democrats, independents and some Republicans in red states, including Kentucky, who want well-funded public schools, abortion rights, health care for the poor and the government to not be cruel to immigrants or transgender people.
So how can this bloc wield power? Unlike in other states, citizens can’t get initiatives on the ballot themselves in Kentucky. I suspect a measure enshrining abortion rights would pass here, but Republican legislators will never give us a chance.
What Kentucky could have is more independent candidates in the mold of Osborn. I understand that Democrats have historically been the dominant party in this state, but that time is over. Having “Democrat” attached to their name automatically disqualifies many candidates to a big bloc of Kentucky voters. Outside of Louisville and Lexington, this is a one-party state. (Or two-parties — the Republicans and the Beshears.)
You could imagine independent candidates running in Republican-leaning districts and perhaps even for statewide offices. These candidates couldn’t win unless Democrats didn’t field candidates. The candidates would need to win a coalition of most Democrats along with a sizable bloc of independents and Republicans. I’m not sure how viable this is. But I’m tired of voting in statewide elections where I know the Democratic candidate has no chance of winning. I would prefer backing a viable candidate who is more conservative than watching more offices in Kentucky held by Trump-style Republicans who win after barely campaigning.
My bottom line is that these liberal victories in Kentucky shouldn’t be treated as flukes. They are something to build on. Kentucky is more conservative than most states, but not as conservative as the bills passed each winter by our legislature. There may be a moderate majority here — and it’s critical to harness it whenever possible.
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