Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs (pictured right) talks with supporters ahead of the General Election. (Photo by Greg Childress)
With Associate Justice Allison Riggs trailing Judge Jefferson Griffin in the state’s unofficial tally by just over 8,000 votes, the North Carolina Supreme Court race could be headed to a recount.
But while the current margin — 0.14% according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections dashboard — is slim, election experts say voters should not expect a recount to change the outcome.
According to a 23-year analysis of statewide recounts by FairVote, a nonpartisan election nonprofit, there were only three statewide races in which a recount changed the outcome out of 36 that were attempted — from a sample of nearly 7,000 statewide elections.
The most recent reversal was the 2008 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota, in which a recount found that challenger Al Franken had defeated the incumbent senator, Norm Coleman. In that race, though, the initial gap showed just a 215-vote lead by Coleman — which became a 225-vote lead for Franken at the recount’s conclusion, a shift of just 440 votes or 0.14%. In all three races where recounts changed the outcome, the margin was less than 0.06% — a shift Riggs would need to more than double to win.
North Carolina saw recounts in two state Supreme Court races in the last decade — in 2014 and in 2020. In both cases, the margin of victory — 0.22% and 0.01%, respectively — remained unchanged.
The counting of provisional ballots narrowed the race from a margin of just under 10,000 — 0.18% of the vote — where it stood the morning after the election. Just under 5.5 million North Carolinians cast ballots in the judicial race.
Riggs will likely be able to request a recount, despite narrow odds of it changing the result in her race. State law provides that candidates at the state level may request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% or 10,000 votes, whichever is less. The state board of elections covers the cost of recounts as a standard practice.
It’s not the only recount North Carolinians that could see this cycle. Democrat Nicole Sidman, who challenged Rep. Tricia Cotham (R-Mecklenburg), wrote in a statement on X that she will request one after the margin in her race shrank to just 215 votes, 0.4% of those cast. Cotham came into 2024 with a target on her back after switching her party affiliation to give Republicans a supermajority in the state legislature, which they used to usher in a 12-week abortion ban.
“One of the reasons I ran for office was because my opponent subverted the Democratic process,” Sidman wrote. “I continue to believe that every single vote matters, and voters deserve to have their will reflected — no matter who wins.”
Should the state Supreme Court result stand, it will be a notable disappointment for North Carolina Democrats on one of the party’s most successful elections in recent years. Democrats are expected to break the Republican supermajority in the legislature and secured a crushing victory in the governor’s race, where Attorney General Josh Stein bested Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson by more than 15% of the vote. Democrats also flipped the lieutenant governorship and held onto the offices of the attorney general, the secretary of state, and the state superintendent, good for half of the Council of State.
It would also be a continuation of the North Carolina judiciary slipping further and further out of reach of liberal jurisprudence. Republicans hold a 5-2 majority on the Supreme Court and would move to 6-1 control if Riggs loses her seat — one reason Democrats fought so hard to keep hold of it this year. The party had sought to hold onto Riggs’ and her colleague Anita Earls’ seat to have a shot at a majority on the court by the time of the 2030 Census — and the redistricting that will come with it. Without one, Democrats fear a new legislative map that will keep them from attaining a majority in the General Assembly for another decade.
It’s just another twist for the quintessential purple state that has seen fit to award its electoral votes to Republicans, elect them across the board to Court of Appeals judgeships, but keep them the furthest they’ve been from the governor’s mansion in decades.
Riggs said in a statement on X that she was watching the results carefully, but did not yet indicate whether she would seek a recount.
“As of today, my race is too close to call. Our team is closely monitoring the count of remaining absentee ballots and provisional ballots, and we will have a clearer idea of our next steps within the next 24-36 hours,” Riggs wrote. “As a longtime civil rights attorney, I believe firmly in the power of our democratic process and the importance of counting every vote.”