“This election cycle presented both parties with historically Herculean challenges.” (Will Steinfeld | New Hampshire Bulletin)
Cue the postmortems. It’s that time of year when the losing political party brings in countless data analysts, consultants, and political scientists to see where it all went wrong during the election. This is also the time of year when the losing party begins to point fingers, internally and externally, at those who it has deemed to be at fault for the undesired outcome.
Understanding what caused the electoral shortfall will be of paramount focus for the Democratic Party over the next several months. Republicans will also need to consider which specific efforts allowed them to be shockingly effective up and down the ticket.
These findings will be harnessed and executed upon by both parties for the next big dance: the 2026 congressional midterms.
What happened?
This election cycle presented both parties with historically Herculean challenges.
Democrats had to build a strategy around Vice President Kamala Harris when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race with 3 months left before the election. Fighting internal dissent and public criticism about whether or not she was “installed” as the candidate, Democrats needed to find a way to make Harris appealing despite being part of a highly unpopular incumbent administration.
Faced with their own unique challenge, Republicans had to uncover a path that would lead Donald Trump back to the White House for a non-consecutive second term – a path that was only trod once in American history, by Grover Cleveland.
As the vote totals poured in, the efficacy of the strategies built around these challenges came into focus early in the night.
By 11 p.m., it was clear that the Republican Party had made statistically significant inroads with voters of color. Specifically within Latino and Black communities by focusing on a message of working-class wage growth. This message also resonated well with independent voters who typically vote with their wallets. After all, NBC’s exit polling data indicated the economy was the second most important issue on the minds of voters.
Adding to the frustration of Democrats was the fact that Republicans simply beat them when it came to drumming up excitement among low-propensity voters. The long of this strategy was an aggressive voter registration effort over the past four years, while the short of it was meeting young men where they consume their information – podcasts. A brilliant last-minute media move from Trump and a regrettable missed opportunity by Harris.
The strategic shortcomings of the Democrats and Harris compounded throughout the night. Harris consistently failed to define herself over the course of her 107-day candidacy. She never once held a formal press conference and overly relied on established media outlets for communication beyond her campaign. This media strategy made it impossible for her to reach independent and low-propensity voters because they typically do not trust established media.
Instead of articulating specific policy positions to draw contrast between herself and President Biden, Harris focused more on defining her opponent as a threat to democracy. The strategy did not bear fruit and potentially backfired.
NBC’s exit polling indicated that the top concern for voters was the direction of democracy. Her calls for unity and moving forward might have rang hollow, worrying independent voters, because in her next breath she would label Trump a fascist. By proxy, this could have appeared as an attack on all independent voters who were leaning toward supporting Trump, further emboldening them to show up and vote.
Democrats need to take stock of their failings, candidate choice, and messaging. Especially if they want to build successful strategies in the face of voter realignment, and an unfavorable demographic shift on the electoral map. They are on pace to lose over 10 electoral votes within stronghold states by 2030.
Lessons from Bill Belichick and James Madison
As a native New Hampshirite, I am fortunate enough to have grown up in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era of Patriots football. My intense fandom aside, the press conference style of Belichick can offer a lesson to both political parties.
Underneath his terse and cantankerous responses to sports reporters’ questions was a coach who did not dwell on the past. He knew that the most successful path forward for his team was one that learned from the past, but did not live in it. If you do not agree with me, watch his infamous “we’re on to Cincinnati” press conference.
Both parties should heed this Belichickean advice not only because it is the prudent thing to do with the 2026 midterm elections on the horizon, but because it is how American democracy is designed to function.
James Madison was astute in his concerns about the tyrannical shortcomings of ancient democracy. This is why he painstakingly built the fence of the American government around it in the style of a constitutional republic. Part of this protective fence is the frequency of popular elections. The flow of groups in and out of government is a necessary way to harness popular ambition while still providing a relief valve if such ambition becomes unpopular. Much the same as a metronome swinging back and forth to a constant rhythm, but always changing positions.
For Madison, frequent elections would set a ticking clock on individuals of ambitious, unbounded idealism to moderate themselves. And when an election did not pan out the way desired, Madison argued that there was always an institutionally protected election to come. Therefore, a group or individual should not wallow, complain, or cry foul, but rather set themselves to the task of assessing their failures to garner future success.
The worst thing that the Democratic Party could do at this point is to externalize blame for its failures. These failures were not the result of unquantifiable systematic racism or sexism. Both of these things could have been present in the minds of the electorate. However, given the racial and gender inroads that the Republican Party made, racism and sexism were not the factors that tipped this election.
Democrats need to look inward to find a path that ends with a successful midterm election. Same for the Republicans. They should not rest on their success and put their heads in the sand for the next two years.
We’re on to 2026. No time for excuses. Only time to put in the work.