Despite a deluge of Democratic cash, Republicans are poised to grow their legislative majorities

Photo by Jerod MacDonald-Evoy | Arizona Mirror

The record spending by Democrats in their pursuit of legislative majorities appears likely to be a swing and a miss, as Republicans are poised to actually expand their hold on power in both chambers after ballots were counted Wednesday.

Democrats spent more money than ever in their bid to flip control of Arizona’s legislature away from Republicans, pouring more than $10 million into a handful of battleground races in suburban districts. 

With Donald Trump heading the ballot for the GOP and voters in all parties — but particularly women — outraged at the 2022 Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, Democrats saw 2024 as their best opportunity in generations to make a serious play for power at the Arizona Capitol.

And while initial results Tuesday night looked promising, continued counting of early ballots dropped off at polling locations on Election Day has not just eroded those hopes, but put Republicans in position to strengthen their slim majorities in both the state Senate and House of Representatives.

For the last four years, Republicans have clung to one-vote majorities in both chambers — 31 House seats and 16 in the Senate. But now they stand on the verge of picking up at least one seat in both the House and the Senate — and possibly more, depending on how the yet-to-be-counted ballots break.

In the Senate, Wednesday’s tally saw GOP newcomer Carine Werner surge past incumbent Democrat Chrstine Marsh in Legislative District 4, a swing district that includes parts of northeast Phoenix, Scottsdale and Cave Creek. Marsh began Wednesday leading by just 38 votes, but by early evening, Werner had overtaken her and led by more than 1,100 votes.

And in two other contests, Republican candidates moved within striking distance of Democrats. In southern Arizona’s Legislative District 17, which runs from Marana and Oro Valley to eastern Tucson, former lawmaker Vince Leach trimmed about 4,000 votes from Democratic newcomer John McLean’s lead. Leach now trails by just 916 votes.

That seat is currently held by Republican Sen. Justine Wadsack, who lost her primary election to Leach, and was one of the top targets for Democrats this year.

In Mesa-centric Legislative District 9, Democratic incumbent Eva Burch is nursing a 1,700-vote lead over Republican Robert Scantlebury in a rematch of the 2022 election. 

Democrats had hoped to oust Sen. Shawnna Bolick in north Phoenix’s Legislative District 2, but the lead Judy Schwiebert built on Tuesday has evaporated. On Wednesday, Bolick expanded her lead from 1,200 votes to nearly 1,900, leaving Schwiebert with little hope of capturing the seat.

If Bolick and Werner hold on to their narrow leads, and Leach and Scantlebury come from behind to win, Republicans would have 19 Senate seats, one shy of a supermajority.

In House contests, Republicans seem almost certain to wrest a seat from Democrats in Legislative District 13, which stretches from Chandler to Sun Lakes. At one point, Democrat Brandy Reese was leading the four-way field, but Republicans Jeff Weninger and Julie Willoughby — one of the incumbents — flew past her in counting on Wednesday, and Reese now trails by about 2,500 votes.

Reese had aimed to hold a Democratic seat currently occupied by Jennifer Pawlik, while fellow Democrat Nicholas Gonzales hoped to pick up Willoughby’s. 

And Republicans look likely to pick up another Democrat-held seat in Pinal County’s Legislative District 16, where Keith Seaman’s reelection bid has left him in third place, more than 2,200 votes behind GOP hopeful Chris Lopez.

The lone bright spot for Democrats in the House is Kevin Volk in LD17, who leads the three-way contest for the two House seats over GOP incumbents Rachel Jones and Cory McGarr. Volk leads Jones by more than 4,200 votes, and McGarr is about 1,600 behind her.

Republicans are also threatening to take two more Democratic seats. In LD4, Democrat Kelli Butler — a former legislator who hopes to return to the House by defending a seat Democrats won in 2022 — leads Republican Pamela Carter by barely 600 votes in the battle for the district’s second House seat. 

And in LD9, Republicans Kylie Barber and Mary Ann Mendoza are both nipping at the heels of Rep. Seth Blattmann, a Democrat who won in 2022 and is seeking reelection to a second term. Barber and Mendoza are separated by just 12 votes, and are less than 750 votes behind Blattmann.